A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.

Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Physical activity and strength of the femoral neck during the adolescent growth spurt: A longitudinal analysis

Loading of the femoral neck (FN) is dominated by bending and compressive stresses. We hypothesize that adaptation of the FN to physical activity would be manifested in the cross-sectional area (CSA) and section modulus (Z) of bone, indices of axial and bending strength, respectively. We investigated the influence of physical activity on bone strength during adolescence using 7 years of longitudinal data from 109 boys and 121 girls from the Saskatchewan Paediatric Bone and Mineral Accrual Study (PBMAS). Physical activity data (PAC-Q physical activity inventory) and anthropometric measurements were taken every 6 months and DXA bone scans were measured annually (Hologic QDR2000, array mode). We applied hip structural analysis to derive strength and geometric indices of the femoral neck using DXA scans. To control for maturation, we determined a biological maturity age defined as years from age at peak height velocity (APHV). To account for the repeated measures within individual nature of longitudinal data, multilevel random effects regression analyses were used to analyze the data. When biological maturity age and body size (height and weight) were controlled, in both boys and girls, physical activity was a significant positive independent predictor of CSA and Z of the narrow region of the femoral neck (P < 0.05). There was no independent effect of physical activity on the subperiosteal width of the femoral neck. When leg length and leg lean mass were introduced into the random effects models to control for size and muscle mass of the leg (instead of height and weight), all significant effects of physical activity disappeared. Even among adolescents engaged in normal levels of physical activity, the statistically significant relationship between physical activity and indices of bone strength demonstrate that modifiable lifestyle factors like exercise play an important role in optimizing bone strength during the growing years. Physical activity differences were explained by the interdependence between activity and lean mass considerations. Physical activity is important for optimal development of bone strength. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A decade of downsizing: Understanding the contours of change in Australia, 1990-99

his paper seeks to map a decade of organizational downsizing in Australia utilizing a comprehensive longitudinal data set of 4153 firms. Aggregate downsizing measures conceal extensive change within organizations. We seek to assess these processes by comparing a conventional downsizing measure with more specific occupational downsizing measures. The results show the contours of change in Australia over the 1990s; indicate that there are distinctive and contrasting trends; and raise significant issues for future theoretical and empirical research.

Family, work and health - The impact of marriage, parenthood and employment on self-reported health of Australian men and women

We investigate multiple-burden and multiple-attachment hypotheses for the association among marriage, parenthood, employment and health for Australian men and women. Using longitudinal data from the Australian panel survey, 'Negotiating the Lifecourse', we find that men and women employed full time report better health than those employed part time or not employed. Previously married women report worse health than married women, but there is no association between marital status and health for men. We also find that men with preschool children in the household report worse health than men with older children, whereas women with preschool children report better health than women with older children. In addition for women we find evidence of a role-burden where combining full-time employment and children has a negative impact on health, but combining children with part-time or no employment has a beneficial health effect. There are no health effects of combining roles for men.

Long-term outcomes of an Australian universal prevention trial of anxiety and depression symptoms in children and youth: An evaluation of the friends program

This study evaluated the long-term effectiveness of the FRIENDS Program in reducing anxiety and depression in a sample of children from Grade 6 and Grade 9 in comparison to a control condition. Longitudinal data for Lock and Barrett's (2003) universal prevention trial is presented, along with data from 12-month follow-up to 24- and 36-month follow-up. Results of this study indicate that intervention reductions in anxiety reported in Lock and Barrett were maintained for students in Grade 6, with the intervention group reporting significantly lower ratings of anxiety at long-term follow-up. A significant Time times Intervention Group times Gender Effect on Anxiety was found, with girls in the intervention group reporting significantly lower anxiety at 12-month and 24-month follow-up but not at 36-month follow-up in comparison to the control condition. Results demonstrated a prevention effect with significantly fewer high-risk students at 36-month follow-up in the intervention condition than in the control condition. Results are discussed within the context of prevention research.

Genetic and environmental influences on dentofacial structures and oral health: studies of Australian twins and their families

Our studies of the teeth and faces of Australian twins commenced at the School of Dentistry, The University of Adelaide in the early 1980s. There are now over 900 pairs of twins enrolled in our continuing investigations, together with 1200 relatives. There are 3 main cohorts of participants. The first cohort comprises around 300 pairs of teenage twins for whom various records have been collected, including dental casts, facial photographs, finger and palm prints and information on laterality, including handedness. The second cohort comprises around 300 pairs of twins who have been examined at 3 stages of dental development from approximately 4 years of age to about 14 years: at primary, mixed, and permanent dentition (excluding 3rd molars) stages. The most recent study of tooth emergence and oral health, for which we are currently recruiting twins, will provide a third cohort of around 500 twin pairs aged from around birth to 3 to 4 years of age. Our broad aim in these studies has been to improve our understanding of how genetic and environmental factors contribute to variation in dental and facial features, and to oral health. We have also used our data to investigate aspects of the determination of laterality, particularly the fascinating phenomenon of mirror imaging. We plan to maximize the use of the longitudinal data and DNA we have collected, and continue to collect, by performing genome-wide scans for putative genetic linkage peaks for a range of dental features, and then to test for association between a series of likely candidate genes and our phenotypes.

Change in lean body mass Is a major determinant of change in areal bone mineral density of the proximal femur: A 12-year observational study

Our objective was to assess the contribution of lean body mass (LBM) and fat body mass (FBM) to areal bone mineral density (aBMD) in women during the years surrounding menopause. We used a 12-year observational design. Participants included 75 Caucasian women who were premenopausal, 53 of whom were available for follow-up. There were two measurement periods: baseline and 12-year follow-up. At both measurement periods, bone mineral content and aBMD of the proximal femur, posterior-anterior lumbar spine, and total body was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). LBM and FBM were derived from the total-body scans. General health, including current menopausal status, hormone replace therapy use, medication use, and physical activity, was assessed by questionnaires. At the end of the study, 44% of the women were postmenopausal. After controlling for baseline aBMD, current menopausal status, and current hormone replacement therapy, we found that change in LBM was independently associated with change in aBMD of the proximal femur (P = 0.001). The cross-sectional analyses also indicated that LBM was a significant determinant of aBMD of all three DXA-scanned sites at both baseline and follow-up. These novel longitudinal data highlight the important contribution of LBM to the maintenance of proximal femur bone mass at a key time in women's life span, the years surrounding menopause.

Dietary and nutritional aspects of tooth wear

There is a general perception that the problem of tooth wear is increasing due to elements of the modern diet and due to increased retention of dentition into older age. Tooth wear encompasses erosion, abrasion and attrition of dental tissues – these often co-exist – yet in general, erosion is of more significance to the young and attrition is of more significance to the older population. Diet plays a significant role in the aetiology of tooth wear and likewise advanced tooth wear in older age may impose dietary restrictions with consequences for dietary intake and nutritional status. There is a need to increase the awareness of the disease of tooth wear and the associated nutritional problems. At present, the aetiology of tooth wear is poorly understood – especially with respect to the role of diet. Clearer information on how best to measure and monitor the incidence and prevalence is needed in order to obtain longitudinal data on trends in tooth wear and to monitor the factors that contribute to this condition. These issues will be addressed in the following presentations: 1) What is tooth wear? Aetiology, measurement and monitoring, 2) The role of diet in the aetiology of dental erosion, 3) Groups at increased risk of tooth wear: Eating disorders, ‘dieters' sportsmen and those with impairments, 4) Tooth wear in older adults: nutritional implications. In summary this symposium seeks to: 1) increase awareness of the disease of tooth wear, and its associated nutritional problems 2) increase understanding of the aetiology of tooth wear, especially the dietary role, 3) provide information on how to measure and monitor tooth wear, 4) highlight future research requirements in the area of tooth wear and diet.

Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women

Many variables that are of interest in social science research are nominal variables with two or more categories, such as employment status, occupation, political preference, or self-reported health status. With longitudinal survey data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between different employment states or occupations (for example). In the statistical literature, models for analysing categorical dependent variables with repeated observations belong to the family of models known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The specific GLMM for a dependent variable with three or more categories is the multinomial logit random effects model. For these models, the marginal distribution of the response does not have a closed form solution and hence numerical integration must be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters. Techniques for implementing the numerical integration are available but are computationally intensive requiring a large amount of computer processing time that increases with the number of clusters (or individuals) in the data and are not always readily accessible to the practitioner in standard software. For the purposes of analysing categorical response data from a longitudinal social survey, there is clearly a need to evaluate the existing procedures for estimating multinomial logit random effects model in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computing time. The computational time will have significant implications as to the preferred approach by researchers. In this paper we evaluate statistical software procedures that utilise adaptive Gaussian quadrature and MCMC methods, with specific application to modeling employment status of women using a GLMM, over three waves of the HILDA survey.

Do the Genetic or Environmental Determinants of Anxiety and Depression Change with Age? A Longitudinal Study of Australian Twins

Because the determinants of anxiety and depression in late adolescence and early adulthood may differ from those in later life, we investigated the temporal stability and magnitude of genetic and environmental correlates of symptoms of anxiety and depression across the life span. Data were collected from a population-based Australian sample of 4364 complete twin pairs and 777 singletons aged 20 to 96 years who were followed-up over three studies between 1980 and 1996. Each study contained the 14-item self-report DSSI/sAD scale which was used to measure recently experienced symptoms of anxiety and depression. Symptom scores were then divided and assigned to age intervals according to each subject's age at time of participation. We fitted genetic simplex models to take into account the longitudinal nature of the data. For male anxiety and depression, the best fitting simplex models comprised a single genetic innovation at age 20 which was transmitted, and explained genetic variation in anxiety and depression at ages 30, 40, 50 and 60. Most of the lifetime genetic variation in female anxiety and depression could also be explained by innovations at age 20 which were transmitted to all other ages; however, there were also smaller age-dependent genetic innovations at 30 for anxiety and at 40 and 70 for depression. Although the genetic determinants of anxiety and depression appear relatively stable across the life-span for males and females, there is some evidence to support additional mid-life and late age gene action in females for depression. The fact that mid-life onset for anxiety occurs one decade before depression is also consistent with a causal relationship (anxiety leading to depression) between these conditions. These findings have significance for large scale depression prevention projects.

Longitudinal relationships among overweight, life satisfaction, and aspirations in young women

Objective: This study investigated associations of overweight status and changes in overweight status over time with life satisfaction and future aspirations among a community sample of young women. Research Methods and Procedures: A total of 7865 young women, initially 18 to 23 years of age, completed two surveys that were 4 years apart. These women provided data on their future life aspirations in the areas of further education, work/career, marital status, and children, as well as their satisfaction with achievements to date in a number of life domains. Women reported their height and weight and their sociodemographic characteristics, including current socioeconomic status (occupation). Results: Young women's aspirations were cross-sectionally related to BMI category, such that obese women were less likely to aspire to further education, although this relationship seemed explained largely by current occupation. Even after adjusting for current occupation, young women who were obese were more dissatisfied with work/career/study, family relationships, partner relationships, and social activities. Weight status was also longitudinally associated with aspirations and life satisfaction. Women who were overweight or obese at both surveys were more likely than other women to aspire to other types of employment (including self-employed and unpaid work in the home) as opposed to full-time employment. They were also less likely to be satisfied with study or partner relationships. Women who resolved their overweight/obesity status were more likely to aspire to being childless than other women. Discussion: These results suggest that being overweight/obese may have a lasting effect on young women's life satisfaction and their future life aspirations.

Country of birth, country of residence, and menopausal transitions and symptoms: British birth cohort and Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objective: To explore endocrine-related and general symptoms among three groups of middle-aged women defined by country of birth and country of residence, in the context of debates about biological, cultural and other factors in menopause. Methods: British-born women participating in a British birth cohort study (n=1,362) and age-matched Australian-born (n=1,724) and British-born (n=233) Australian women selected from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) responded to two waves of surveys at ages 48 and 50. Results: Australian-Australian and British-Australian women report reaching menopause later than British-British women, even after accounting for smoking status and parity. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use was lower and hysterectomy was more common among both Australian groups, probably reflecting differences in health services between Britain and Australia. The Australian-Australian and British-Australian groups were more likely to report endocrine-related symptoms than the British-British group, even after adjusting for menopausal status. British-British women were more likely to report some general symptoms. Conclusions: Symptom reporting is high among Australian and British midlife women and varies by country of residence, country of birth and menopausal status. Implications: The data do not support either a simple cultural or a simple biological explanation for differences in menopause experience.