Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Partial regularity of minimizers of a functional involving forms and maps

We discuss the partial regularity of minimizers of energy functionals such as (1)/(p)integral(Omega)[sigma(u)dA(p) + (1)/(2)delu(2p)]dx, where u is a map from a domain Omega is an element of R-n into the m-dimensional unit sphere of Rm+1 and A is a differential one-form in Omega.

A review of two journals found that articles using multivariable logistic regression frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions

Background and Objective: To examine if commonly recommended assumptions for multivariable logistic regression are addressed in two major epidemiological journals. Methods: Ninety-nine articles from the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology and the American Journal of Epidemiology were surveyed for 10 criteria: six dealing with computation and four with reporting multivariable logistic regression results. Results: Three of the 10 criteria were addressed in 50% or more of the articles. Statistical significance testing or confidence intervals were reported in all articles. Methods for selecting independent variables were described in 82%, and specific procedures used to generate the models were discussed in 65%. Fewer than 50% of the articles indicated if interactions were tested or met the recommended events per independent variable ratio of 10: 1. Fewer than 20% of the articles described conformity to a linear gradient, examined collinearity, reported information on validation procedures, goodness-of-fit, discrimination statistics, or provided complete information on variable coding. There was no significant difference (P >.05) in the proportion of articles meeting the criteria across the two journals. Conclusion: Articles reviewed frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions for using multivariable logistic regression. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regularity and relaxed problems of minimizing biharmonic maps into spheres

For n >= 5 and k >= 4, we show that any minimizing biharmonic map from Omega subset of R-n to S-k is smooth off a closed set whose Hausdorff dimension is at most n - 5. When n = 5 and k = 4, for a parameter lambda is an element of [0, 1] we introduce lambda-relaxed energy H-lambda of the Hessian energy for maps in W-2,W-2 (Omega; S-4) so that each minimizer u(lambda) of H-lambda is also a biharmonic map. We also establish the existence and partial regularity of a minimizer of H-lambda for lambda is an element of [0, 1).

Removable singularities for p-harmonic maps: The subquadratic case

We prove a removable singularity theorem for p-harmonic maps in the subquadratic case. The theorem states that an isolated singularity of a weakly p-harmonic map is removable if the energy is sufficiently small in a neighbourhood of the singularity.

The development of retinotectal maps: A review of models based on molecular gradients

Information about the world is often represented in the brain in the form of topographic maps. A paradigm example is the topographic representation of the visual world in the optic tectum/superior colliculus. This map initially forms during neural development using activity-independent molecular cues, most notably some type of chemospecific matching between molecular gradients in the retina and corresponding gradients in the tectum/superior colliculus. Exactly how this process might work has been studied both experimentally and theoretically for several decades. This review discusses the experimental data briefly, and then in more detail the theoretical models proposed. The principal conclusions are that (1) theoretical models have helped clarify several important ideas in the field, (2) earlier models were often more sophisticated than more recent models, and (3) substantial revisions to current modelling approaches are probably required to account for more than isolated subsets of the experimental data.

Brain maps, great and small: lessons from comparative studies of primate visual cortical organization

In this paper, we review evidence from comparative studies of primate cortical organization, highlighting recent findings and hypotheses that may help us to understand the rules governing evolutionary changes of the cortical map and the process of formation of areas during development. We argue that clear unequivocal views of cortical areas and their homologies are more likely to emerge for 'core' fields, including the primary sensory areas, which are specified early in development by precise molecular identification steps. In primates, the middle temporal area is probably one of these primordial cortical fields. Areas that form at progressively later stages of development correspond to progressively more recent evolutionary events, their development being less firmly anchored in molecular specification. The certainty with which areal boundaries can be delimited, and likely homologies can be assigned, becomes increasingly blurred in parallel with this evolutionary/developmental sequence. For example, while current concepts for the definition of cortical areas have been vindicated in allowing a clarification of the organization of the New World monkey 'third tier' visual cortex (the third and dorsomedial areas, V3 and DM), our analyses suggest that more flexible mapping criteria may be needed to unravel the organization of higher-order visual association and polysensory areas.

Optimal crossover designs for logistic regression models in pharmacodynamics

Pharmacodynamics (PD) is the study of the biochemical and physiological effects of drugs. The construction of optimal designs for dose-ranging trials with multiple periods is considered in this paper, where the outcome of the trial (the effect of the drug) is considered to be a binary response: the success or failure of a drug to bring about a particular change in the subject after a given amount of time. The carryover effect of each dose from one period to the next is assumed to be proportional to the direct effect. It is shown for a logistic regression model that the efficiency of optimal parallel (single-period) or crossover (two-period) design is substantially greater than a balanced design. The optimal designs are also shown to be robust to misspecification of the value of the parameters. Finally, the parallel and crossover designs are combined to provide the experimenter with greater flexibility.