Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Globalisation and sustainability: environmental Kuznets curve and the WTO

Economic globalisation is seen by many as a driving force for global economic growth. Yet opinion is divided about the benefits of this process, as highlighted by the WTO meeting in Seattle in late 1999. Proponents of economic globalisation view it as a positive force for environmental improvement and as a major factor increasing the likelihood of sustainable development through its likely boost to global investment. These proponents mostly appeal to analysis based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) to support their views about environmental improvement. But EKC-analysis has significant deficiencies. Furthermore, it is impossible to be confident that the process of economic globalisation will result in sustainable development, if 'weak conditions' only are satisfied. 'Strong conditions' probably need to be satisfied to achieve sustainable development, and given current global institutional arrangements, these are likely to be violated by the economic globalisation process. Global political action seems to be needed-to avert a deterioration in the global environment and to prevent unsustainability of development. This exposition demonstrates the limitations of EKC-analysis, identifies positive and negative effects of economic globalisation on pollution levels, and highlights connections between globalisation and the debate about whether strong or weak conditions are required for sustainable development. The article concludes with a short discussion of the position of WTO in relation to trade and the environment and the seemingly de facto endorsement of WTO of weak conditions for sustainable development. It suggests that WTO's relative neglect of environmental concerns is no longer politically tenable and needs to be reassessed in the light of recent developments in economic analysis. The skew of economic growth, e.g. in favour of developing countries, is shown to be extremely important from a global environmental perspective. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

A review of two journals found that articles using multivariable logistic regression frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions

Background and Objective: To examine if commonly recommended assumptions for multivariable logistic regression are addressed in two major epidemiological journals. Methods: Ninety-nine articles from the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology and the American Journal of Epidemiology were surveyed for 10 criteria: six dealing with computation and four with reporting multivariable logistic regression results. Results: Three of the 10 criteria were addressed in 50% or more of the articles. Statistical significance testing or confidence intervals were reported in all articles. Methods for selecting independent variables were described in 82%, and specific procedures used to generate the models were discussed in 65%. Fewer than 50% of the articles indicated if interactions were tested or met the recommended events per independent variable ratio of 10: 1. Fewer than 20% of the articles described conformity to a linear gradient, examined collinearity, reported information on validation procedures, goodness-of-fit, discrimination statistics, or provided complete information on variable coding. There was no significant difference (P >.05) in the proportion of articles meeting the criteria across the two journals. Conclusion: Articles reviewed frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions for using multivariable logistic regression. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Area-under-the-curve monitoring of prednisolone for dose optimization in a stable renal transplant population

Background: Renal transplant recipients were noted to appear cushingoid while on low doses of steroid as part of a triple therapy immunosuppression of cyclosporin A (CsA), prednisolone, and azathioprine. Methods: The study group comprised adult renal transplant recipients with stable graft function who had received their renal allograft a minimum of 1 year previously (43 studies undertaken in 22 men and 20 women) with median daily prednisone dose of 7 mg (range 3-10). The control group was healthy nontransplant subjects [median dose 10 mg (10-30)]. Prednisolone bioavailability was measured using a limited 6-hour area under the curve (AUC), with prednisolone measured using specific HPLC assay. Results: The median prednisolone AUC/mg dose for all transplant recipients was significantly greater than the control group by approximately 50% (316 nmol(.)h/L/mg prednisolone versus 218). AUC was significantly higher in female recipients (median 415 versus 297 for men) and in recipients receiving cyclospotin (348 versus 285). The highest AUC was in women on estrogen supplements who were receiving cyclosporin (median 595). A significantly higher proportion of patients on triple therapy had steroid side effects compared with those on steroid and azathioprine (17/27 versus 4/15), more women than men had side effects (14/16 versus 7/22), and the AUC/mg prednisone was greater in those with side effects than without (median 377 versus 288 nmol-h/L/mg). Discussion: The results are consistent with the hypothesis that CsA increases the bioavailability of prednisolone, most likely through inhibition of beta-glycoprotein. The increased exposure to steroid increased the side-effect profile of steroids in the majority of patients. Because the major contributor to AUC is the maximum postdose concentration, it may be possible to use single-point monitoring (2 hours postdose) for routine clinical studies.

Effect of curve fitting parameters on quantitative analysis of Fe0.94O and Fe2O3 using XPS

The XPS peaks of Fe 3p for Fe2+ and Fe3+ in FeO and Fe2O3, respectively, have been measured and the effects of curve fitting parameters on interpretation of the data have been analysed. Firstly, the peak fit parameters, i.e. (1) the number of peaks to be deconvoluted, (2) the range of the peak for back ground subtraction, (3) straight line (Li) or the Shirley (Sh) background subtraction method, (4) GL ratio (the ratio of Gaussian and Lorentzian contribution to the peak shape) and (5) asymmetry factor (AS), are manually selected. Secondly, the standard peak fit parameters were systematically investigated. The peak shape was fitted to a Voigt function by changing the peak position, the peak height and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) to minimize the chi(2). The recommended peak positions and peak parameters for Fe2+ and Fe3+ in iron oxides have been determined. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of water retention curve from mercury intrusion porosimetry and van Genuchten model

The water retention curve (WRC) is a hydraulic characteristic of concrete required for advanced modeling of water (and thus solute) transport in variably saturated, heterogeneous concrete. Unfortunately, determination by a direct experimental method (for example, measuring equilibrium moisture levels of large samples stored in constant humidity cells) is a lengthy process, taking over 2 years for large samples. A surrogate approach is presented in which the WRC is conveniently estimated from mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and validated by water sorption isotherms: The well-known Barrett, Joyner and Halenda (BJH) method of estimating the pore size distribution (PSD) from the water sorption isotherm is shown to complement the PSD derived from conventional MIP. This provides a basis for predicting the complete WRC from MIP data alone. The van Genuchten equation is used to model the combined water sorption and MIP results. It is a convenient tool for describing water retention characteristics over the full moisture content range. The van Genuchten parameter estimation based solely on MIP is shown to give a satisfactory approximation to the WRC, with a simple restriction on one. of the parameters.

The stimulus-response curve and motor unit variability in normal subjects and subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

The behavior and stability of motor units (MUs) in response to electrical stimulation of different intensities can be assessed with the stimulus-response curve, which is a graphical representation of the size of the compound muscle action potential (CMAP) in relation to stimulus intensity. To examine MU characteristics across the whole stimulus range, the variability of CMAP responses to electrical stimulation, and the differences that occur between normal and disease states, the curve was studied in 11 normal subjects and 16 subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). In normal subjects, the curve showed a gradual increase in CMAP size with increasing stimulus intensity, although one or two discrete steps were sometimes observed in the upper half of the curve, indicating the activation of large MUs at higher intensities. In ALS subjects, large discrete steps, due to loss of MUs and collateral sprouting, were frequently present. Variability of the CMAP responses was greater than baseline variability, indicating variability of MU responses, and at certain levels this variability was up to 100 mu Vms. The stimulus-response curve shows differences between normal and ALS subjects and provides information on MU activation and variability throughout the curve.

Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

Optimal crossover designs for logistic regression models in pharmacodynamics

Pharmacodynamics (PD) is the study of the biochemical and physiological effects of drugs. The construction of optimal designs for dose-ranging trials with multiple periods is considered in this paper, where the outcome of the trial (the effect of the drug) is considered to be a binary response: the success or failure of a drug to bring about a particular change in the subject after a given amount of time. The carryover effect of each dose from one period to the next is assumed to be proportional to the direct effect. It is shown for a logistic regression model that the efficiency of optimal parallel (single-period) or crossover (two-period) design is substantially greater than a balanced design. The optimal designs are also shown to be robust to misspecification of the value of the parameters. Finally, the parallel and crossover designs are combined to provide the experimenter with greater flexibility.

Dynamic breast MRI: Image registration and its impact on enhancement curve estimation

A novel algorithm for performing registration of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI data of the breast is presented. It is based on an algorithm known as iterated dynamic programming originally devised to solve the stereo matching problem. Using artificially distorted DCE-MRI breast images it is shown that the proposed algorithm is able to correct for movement and distortions over a larger range than is likely to occur during routine clinical examination. In addition, using a clinical DCE-MRI data set with an expertly labeled suspicious region, it is shown that the proposed algorithm significantly reduces the variability of the enhancement curves at the pixel level yielding more pronounced uptake and washout phases.