Appetitive motivation predicts the majority of personality and an ability measure: a comparison of BAS measures and a re-evaluation of the importance of RST

Our first study develops a measure of appetitive motivation and our second study compares several measures of Gray's (1987) behaviour activation system (BAS) in the prediction of the surface scales of personality. In particular, we were interested in determining the utility of the new appetitive motivation scale and Dickman's functional impulsivity scale. In comparison to other well-known measures, both scales were generally good predictors. We conclude that the appetitive motivation scale is a promising measure of BAS based upon construct validation. Contrary to previous studies which have suggested that BAS is a generally poor predictor of the surface scales of personality, we discovered appetitive motivation to be an important predictor of personality in general. Interestingly, the scale was also predictive of scores on the Baddeley reasoning test. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of forest area and configuration relative to local habitat factors for conserving forest mammals: A case study of koalas in Queensland, Australia

The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats by human land use are recognised as important factors influencing the decline of forest-dependent fauna. Mammal species that are dependent upon forest habitats are particularly sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have highly specific habitat requirements, and in many cases have limited ability to move through and utilise the land use matrix. We addressed this problem using a case study of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) surveyed in a fragmented rural-urban landscape in southeast Queensland, Australia. We applied a logistic modelling and hierarchical partitioning analysis to determine the importance of forest area and its configuration relative to site (local) and patch-level habitat variables. After taking into account spatial auto-correlation and the year of survey, we found koala occurrence increased with the area of all forest habitats, habitat patch size and the proportion of primary Eucalyptus tree species; and decreased with mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches, and the density of sealed roads. The difference between the effect of habitat area and configuration was not as strong as theory predicts, with the configuration of remnant forest becoming increasingly important as the area of forest habitat declines. We conclude that the area of forest, its configuration across the landscape, as well as the land use matrix, are important determinants of koala occurrence, and that habitat configuration should not be overlooked in the conservation of forest-dependent mammals, such as the koala. We highlight the implications of these findings for koala conservation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

The importance of mating system in translocation programs: reproductive success of released male bridled nailtail wallabies

Translocation is an important tool for the conservation of species that have suffered severe range reductions. The success of a translocation should be measured not only by the survival of released animals, but by the reproductive output of individuals and hence the establishment of a self-sustaining population. The bridled nailtail wallaby is an endangered Australian macropod that suffered an extensive range contraction to a single remaining wild population. A translocated population was established and subsequently monitored over a four year period. The aim of this study was to measure the reproductive success of released males using genetic tools and to determine the factors that predicted reproductive success. Captive-bred and wild-caught animals were released and we found significant variation in male reproductive success among release groups. Variation in reproductive success was best explained by individual male weight, survival and release location rather than origin. Only 26% of candidate males were observed to sire an offspring during the study. The bridled nailtail wallaby is a sexually dimorphic, polygynous macropod and reproductive success is skewed toward large males. Males over 5800 g were six times more likely to sire an offspring than males below this weight. This study highlights the importance of considering mating system when choosing animals for translocation. Translocation programs for polygynous species should release a greater proportion of females, and only release males of high breeding potential. By maximizing the reproductive output of released animals, conservation managers will reduce the costs of translocation and increase the chance of successfully establishing a self-sustaining population. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of the relevance of the issue to the group in voting intentions: The case of the Australian republic referendum

A questionnaire was distributed on the Australian republic issue to examine the interplay between norms and relevance of the issue to the group on voting intentions. Supporters of an Australian republic (N = 188) indicated the level of support for a republic within their peer Group, the relevance of the republic issue to the group, and measures designed to assess voting intentions and other attitude outcomes. Analysis revealed an interaction between normative support and relevance of the issue to the group. On the measure of intention, increasing normative support was associated with increased intention to vote in an attitude-consistent way at both relevance levels, but the effect was heightened when the issue was highly relevant to the group. On the outcomes of willingness to express opinion and perceived personal importance of the republic issue, normative support had a positive effect only when the issue was highly relevant to the group. Mediation analyses revealed that the impact of normative support and group relevance on intention were mediated through perceived personal importance of the republic issue.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance of considering social issues in reforestation schemes

This paper reports the results of a survey of north Queensland landholder attitudes with respect to a number of issues relating to participation in forestry. The survey explored the reasons why landholders plant trees, perceived obstacles to greater farm forestry, and attitudes to tree planting programs such as the Community Rainforest Reforestation Program (CRRP) and Private Joint Venture Scheme (PJVS). The results of the survey are discussed in the context of possible policy prescriptions that can be made at local, state and federal government levels to facilitate greater tree planting in the region. Many of the problems faced by local landholders are shared by landholders in other parts of Australia and throughout the world. This survey can thus serve as a case study, providing information on a number of issues concerning small-scale forestry policies that are of general relevance to the development of farm forestry programs.

The importance of setting and evaluating standards of telemedicine training

The importance of appropriate training in the use of videoconferencing equipment for clinical purposes is often underestimated when telemedicine projects are established. We developed a user training programme which was delivered via videoconferencing to a group of 130 nurses. Training was delivered on a one-to-one basis. A questionnaire was developed to evaluate user satisfaction and the effectiveness of training. One hundred and two fully completed questionnaires were returned (a 79% response rate). High levels of satisfaction were obtained but the level of user competence reached 100% only when training was supported by a training manual and at least weekly practice. Before establishing a telemedicine service, the following steps appear to be important: identify the required training competencies; deliver a 'hands on' training programme based on the required training competencies; back up the training programme with an instruction booklet; ensure that trainees have at least weekly practice; measure the level of user competence.