The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Modified logit life table system: Principles, empirical validation, and application

Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).

Life tables of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer (Lepidoptera : Thaumetopoeidae) at local and regional scales

A major ongoing debate in population ecology has surrounded the causative factors underlying the abundance of phytophagous insects and whether or not these factors limit or regulate herbivore populations. However, it is often difficult to identify mortality agents in census data, and their distribution and relative importance across large spatial scales are rarely understood. Were, we present life tables for egg batches and larval cohorts of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer, using intensive local sampling combined with extensive regional monitoring to ascertain the relative importance of different mortality factors at different localities. Extinction of entire cohorts (representing the entire reproductive output of one female) at natural localities was high, with 82% of the initial 492 cohorts going extinct. Mortality was highest in the egg and early instar stages due to predation from dermestid beetles, and while different mortality factors (e.g. hatching failure, egg parasitism and failure to establish on the host) were present at many localities, dermestid predation, either directly observed or inferred from indirect evidence, was the dominant mortality factor at 89% of localities surveyed. Predation was significantly higher in plantations than in natural habitats. The second most important mortality factor was resource depletion, with 14 cohorts defoliating their hosts. Egg and larval parasitism were not major mortality agents. A combination of predation and resource depletion consistently accounted for the majority of mortality across localities, suggesting that both factors are important in limiting population abundance. This evidence shows that O. lunifer is not regulated by natural enemies alone, but that resource patches (Acacia trees) ultimately, and frequently, act together to limit population growth.

Comparison of measured sleeping metabolic rate and predicted basal metabolic rate during the first year of life: evidence of a bias changing with increasing metabolic rate

Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: - 0.64 to - 0.28MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and - 0.39 to +0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.

Use of GnRH agonist implants for long-term suppression of fertility in extensively managed heifers and cows

The ability of gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist implants to suppress ovarian activity and prevent pregnancies, long-term, was examined in heifers and cows maintained under extensive management. At three cattle stations, heifers (2-year-old) and older cows (3- to 16-year-old) were assigned to a control group that received no treatment, or were treated with high-dose (12 mg, Station A) or low-dose (8 mg, Station B and Station Q GnRH agonist implants. The respective numbers of control and GnRH agonist-treated animals (heifers + cows) at each station were: Station A, 20 and 99; Station B, 19 and 89; Station C, 20 and 76. Animals were maintained with 4% bulls and monitored for pregnancy at 2-monthly intervals for approximately 12 months. Pregnancy rates for control heifers and control cows ranged from 60-90% and 80-100%, respectively, depending on the study site. The respective number of animals (heifers + cows) treated with GnRH agonist that conceived, and days to first conception, were: Station A, 9 (9%) and 336 3 days; Station B, 8 (10%) and 244 +/- 13 days; Station C, 20 (26%) and 231 +/- 3 days. Treatment with high-dose GnRH agonist prevented pregnancies for longer (similar to300 days) than treatment with low-dose GnRH agonist (similar to200 days). In the majority of heifers and cows treated with GnRH agonist, ovarian follicular growth was restricted to early antral follicles (2-4 mm). The findings indicate that GnRH agonist implants have considerable potential as a practical technology to suppress ovarian activity and control reproduction in female cattle maintained in extensive rangelands environments. The technology also has broader applications in diverse cattle production systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The life cycle of Paracardicoloides yamagutii Martin, 1974 (Digenea: Sanguinicolidae)

The sanguinicolids Paracardicoloides yamagutii Martin, 1974 and Plethorchis acanthus Martin, 1975 were obtained from their definitive hosts, Anguilla reinhardtii Steindachner and Mugil cephalus Linnaeus (respectively) in the tributaries of the Brisbane River, Queensland, Australia. Two putative sanguinicolid cercariae were collected from a hydrobiid gastropod, Posticobia brazieri Smith, in the same waters. The two cercariae differ markedly in size and the form of their sporocysts. Both putative cercariae develop in the digestive gland of Po. brazieri. The ITS2 rDNA region from these sanguinicolids and a Clinostomum species (utilised as an outgroup due to the close morphological similarities between the cercarial stages of the Clinostomidae and the Sanguinicolidae) were sequenced and aligned. Comparison of the ITS2 sequences showed one cercaria to be that of P. yamagutii. This is the first sanguinicolid life history determined by a molecular method. P. yamagutii is the fourth sanguinicolid known to utilise a freshwater hydrobiid gastropod as its intermediate host. ITS2 rDNA is effective in distinguishing sanguinicolids at the species level.