Costs and decisions in population management: Koalas on Kangaroo Island

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat, or upon other species in the environment, if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often managed using some form of control. The objective is to keep numbers at a sustainable level, while ensuring survival of the population.+Here we present models that allow population management programs to be assessed. Two common control regimes will be considered: reduction and suppression. Under the suppression regime the previous population is maintained close to a particular threshold through near continuous control, while under the reduction regime, control begins once the previous population reaches a certain threshold and continues until it falls below a lower pre-defined level. We discuss how to best choose the control parameters, and we provide tools that allow population managers to select reduction levels and control rates. Additional tools will be provided to assess the effect of different control regimes, in terms of population persistence and cost.In particular we consider the effects of each regime on the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and compare the control methods in terms of the expected total cost of each regime over the life of the population. The usefulness of our results will be illustrated with reference to the control of a koala population inhabiting Kangaroo Island, Australia.

Prospects for control of African trypanosomiasis by tsetse vector manipulation

The extensive antigenic variation phenomena African trypanosomes display in their mammalian host have hampered efforts to develop effective vaccines against trypanosomiasis. Human disease management aims largely to treat infected hosts by chemotherapy, whereas control of animal diseases relies on reducing tsetse populations as well as on drug therapy. The control strategies for animal diseases are carried out and financed by livestock owners, who have an obvious economic incentive. Sustaining largely insecticide-based control at a local level and relying on drugs for treatment of infected hosts for a disease for which there is no evidence of acquired immunity could prove extremely costly in the long run. It is more likely that a combination of several methods in an integrated, phased and area-wide approach would be more effective in controlling these diseases and subsequently improving agricultural output. New approaches that are environmentally acceptable, efficacious and affordable are clearly desirable for control of various medically and agriculturally important insects including tsetse. Here, Serap Aksoy and colleagues discuss molecular genetic approaches to modulate tsetse vector competence.

An experimental study of the effects of work stress, work control, and task information on adjustment

The present study was designed to examine the main and interactive effects of task demands, work control, and task information on levels of adjustment. Task demands, work control, and task information were manipulated in an experimental setting where participants completed a letter-sorting activity (N = 128). Indicators of adjustment included measures of positive mood, participants' perceptions of task performance, and task satisfaction. Results of the present study provided some support for the main effects of objective task demands, work control, and task information on levels of adjustment. At the subjective level of analysis, there was some evidence to suggest that work control and task information interacted in their effects on levels of adjustment. There was minimal support for the proposal that work control and task information would buffer the negative effects of task demands on adjustment. There was, however, some evidence to suggest that the stress-buffering role of subjective work control was more marked at high, rather than low, levels of subjective task information.

A case-control study of employment status and mortality in a cohort of Australian youth

Recent studies have demonstrated a link in young populations between unemployment and ill health. The purpose of this study is to correlate mortality with employment status in two cohorts of young Australian males, aged 17-25 years, from 1984 to 1988. Two youth cohorts consisting of an initially unemployed sample (n = 1424 males) and a population sample (n = 4573 males), were surveyed annually throughout the study period. Those lost to follow-up during the survey period were matched with death registries across Australia. Employment status was determined from weekly diaries and death certificates and was designated as: employed or student; unemployed; not in the work force (excluding students). Conditional logistic regression, using age- and cohort- matched cases (deaths) and controls (alive), was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of dying with regard to employment status, taking into account potential confounders such as ethnicity, aboriginality, educational attainment, pre-existing health problems, socio-economic status of parents, and other factors. Twenty three male survey respondents were positively matched to death registry records. Compared to those employed or students (referent group), significantly elevated ORs were found to be associated with neither being in the workforce nor a student for all cause, external cause, and external cause mortality other than suicide. Odds ratios were adjusted for age, survey cohort, ethnicity, pre-existing physical and mental health status, education level, and socio-economic status of parent(s). A statistically significant increasing linear trend in odds ratios of male mortality for most cause groups was found across the employment categories, from those employed or student (lowest ORs), through those unemployed; to those not in the workforce (highest ORs). Suicide was higher, but not statistically significantly, in those unemployed or not in the workforce. Suicide also was associated, though not significantly, with the respondent not living with their parents when they were 14 years of age. No association was found between mortality and past unemployment experience, as measured by length of time spent unemployed, or the number of spells of unemployment experienced during the survey. The results of this study underscore the elevated risk to survival in young males as a consequence of being neither employed nor a student. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human response to environmental noise: The role of perceived control

Negative impacts of noise exposure on health and performance may result in part from learned helplessness, the syndrome of deficits typically produced by exposure to uncontrollable events. People may perceive environmental noise to be uncontrollable, and several effects of noise exposure appear to parallel learned helplessness deficits. In the present socioacoustic survey (N = 1,015), perceived control over aircraft noise correlated negatively with some effects of noise (though not others). Furthermore, these effects were better predicted by perceived control than by noise level. These observational data support the claim that learned helplessness contributes to the effects of noise exposure.

Does workforce participation empower women? Micro-level evidence from urban Bangladesh

Empirical studies on the impact of women’s paid jobs on their empowerment and welfare in the Bangladesh context are rare. The few studies on the issue to date have all been confined to the garment workers only although studies indicate that women’s workforce participation in Bangladesh has increased across-the-board. Besides, none of these studies has made an attempt to control for the non-working women and/or applied any statistical technique to control for the effects of other pertinent determinants of women’s empowerment and welfare such as education, age, religion and place of living. This study overcomes these drawbacks and presents alternative assessments of the link between women’s workforce participation and empowerment on the basis of survey data from the two largest cities in Bangladesh. While the generic assessment indicates that women’s paid jobs have positive implications for women’s participation in decisions on fertility, children’s education and healthcare as well as their possession and control of resources, the econometric assessment negates most of these observations. Women’s education, on the other hand, appears to be more important than their participation in the labour force. The study underlines the fact that by omitting other relevant explanatory variables from the analysis, the previous studies might have overestimated the impact of women’s paid work on their empowerment. Among other things, the paper also highlights the importance of women’s job category, religion and regional differences for women’s empowerment.

Opportunities for the control of coronary heart disease in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of coronary events that could be prevented in Australia each year by the use of preventive and therapeutic strategies targeted to subgroups of the population based on their levels of risk and need. Methods: Estimates of risk reduction from the published literature, prevalence estimates of elevated risk factor levels from the 1995 National Health Survey and treatment levels from the Australian collaborating centres in the World Health Organization's MONICA Project were used to calculate numbers of coronary events preventable among men and women aged 35-79 years in Australia. Results: Approximately 14,000 coronary events could be avoided each year if the mean level of cholesterol in the population was reduced by 0.5 mmol/L, smoking prevalence was halved and prevalence of physical inactivity was reduced to 25%. This represents a reduction in coronary events of about 40%. Even with less optimistic targets, a reduction of 20% could be attained, while the achievement of some internationally recommended targets could lead to almost 50% reduction. In the short term, aggressive medical treatment of people with elevated levels of risk factors and established coronary disease offers the greatest opportunity for reducing coronary events. Conclusion: A comprehensive approach to reduce levels of behavioural and biological risk factors and improve the use of effective treatment could lead to a large reduction in coronary event rates. In the long term, primary prevention - especially to reduce smoking, lower cholesterol levels and increase exercise - has the potential to reduce the population levels of risk and hence contain the national cost of coronary disease.

Bayesian feedback versus Markovian feedback in a two-level atom

We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

A hedging point strategy - balancing effluent quality, economy and robustness in the control of wastewater treatment plants

An operational space map is an efficient tool to compare a large number of operational strategies to find an optimal choice of setpoints based on a multicriterion. Typically, such a multicriterion includes a weighted sum of cost of operation and effluent quality. Due to the relative high cost of aeration such a definition of optimality result in a relatively high fraction of the effluent total nitrogen in the form of ammonium. Such a strategy may however introduce a risk into operation because a low degree of ammonium removal leads to a low amount of nitrifiers. This in turn leads to a reduced ability to reject event disturbances, such as large variations in the ammonium load, drop in temperature, the presence of toxic/inhibitory compounds in the influent etc. Hedging is a risk minimisation tool, with the aim to "reduce one's risk of loss on a bet or speculation by compensating transactions on the other side" (The Concise Oxford Dictionary (1995)). In wastewater treatment plant operation hedging can be applied by choosing a higher level of ammonium removal to increase the amount of nitrifiers. This is a sensible way to introduce disturbance rejection ability into the multi criterion. In practice, this is done by deciding upon an internal effluent ammonium criterion. In some countries such as Germany, a separate criterion already applies to the level of ammonium in the effluent. However, in most countries the effluent criterion applies to total nitrogen only. In these cases, an internal effluent ammonium criterion should be selected in order to secure proper disturbance rejection ability.

Control of dimethylsulfoxide reductase expression in Rhodobacter capsulatus: the role of carbon metabolites and the response regulators DorR and RegA

Regulation of the expression of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) reductase was investigated in the purple phototrophic bacterium Rhodobacter capsulatus. Under phototrophic, anaerobic conditions with malate as carbon source, DMSO caused an approximately 150-fold induction of DMSO reductase activity. The response regulator DorR was required for DMSO-dependent induction and also appeared to slightly repress DMSO reductase expression in the absence of substrate. Likewise, when pyruvate replaced malate as carbon source there was an induction of DMSO reductase activity in cells grown at low light intensity (16 W m(-2)) and again this induction was dependent on DorR. The level of DMSO reductase activity in aerobically grown cells was elevated when pyruvate replaced malate as carbon source. One possible explanation for this is that acetyl phosphate, produced from pyruvate, may activate expression of DMSO reductase by direct phosphorylation of DorR, leading to low levels of induction of dor gene expression in the absence of DMSO. A mutant lacking the global response regulator of photosynthesis gene expression, RegA, exhibited high levels of DMSO reductase in the absence of DMSO, when grown phototrophically with malate as carbon source. This suggests that phosphorylated RegA acts as a repressor of dor operon expression under these conditions. It has been proposed elsewhere that RegA-dependent expression is negatively regulated by the cytochrome cbb(3) oxidase. A cco mutant lacking cytochrome cbb(3) exhibited significantly higher levels of Phi[dorA::lacZ] activity in the presence of DMSO compared to wild-type cells and this is consistent with the above model. Pyruvate restored DMSO reductase expression in the regA mutant to the same pattern as found in wild-type cells. These data suggest that R. capsulatus contains a regulator of DMSO respiration that is distinct from DorR and RegA, is activated in the presence of pyruvate, and acts as a negative regulator of DMSO reductase expression.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cervicogenic headache: Locus of control and success of treatment

Background.-A number of extraneous factors have been implicated in the effectiveness of treatment of headache, including patient beliefs about aspects of the treatment or persons delivering the treatment. Objective.-The concept of external locus of control for headaches refers to patients with a high level of belief that headache and relief are influenced primarily by health care professionals. The aim of this study was to examine whether external locus of control is associated with a reduction in frequency of cervicogenic headaches among patients treated by a physiotherapist. Design.-A recent randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness of physiotherapy among 200 patients with headache enabled a test of this relationship. Treatment consisted of manipulative therapy, therapeutic exercise, or a combination of the 2. Analysis of relative change in headache frequency was conducted after 6 weeks of treatment and at 3- and 12-month follow-up appointments. Results.-Results of the analysis indicated that participants with relatively high external Headache-Specific Locus of Control scores were more likely to achieve a reduction in headache frequency if they received the combined manipulative therapy and exercise therapy, compared with those who received no treatment. This was not determined for the group who received manipulative therapy, which is a treatment received passively by the patient. Conclusions.-The interpretation of these findings is considered in the context of nongeneralization to the other physiotherapy treatment groups and sustained reduction in headache frequency following withdrawal of treatment. The pattern of findings suggests that characteristics of the therapy were more pertinent than characteristics of the therapist.

Digitally-implemented naturally sampled PWM suitable for multilevel converter control

For dynamic closed loop control of a multilevel converter with a low pulse number (ratio of switching frequency to synthesized fundamental), natural sampled pulse-width modulation (PWM) is the best form of modulation. Natural sampling does not introduce distortion or a delayed response to the modulating signal. However previous natural sampled PWM implementations have generally been analog. For a modular multilevel converter, a digital implementation has advantages of accuracy and flexibility. Re-sampled uniform PWM is a novel digital modulation technique which approaches the performance of natural PWM. Both hardware and software implementations for a five level multilevel converter phase are presented, demonstrating the improvement over uniform PWM.

Multilevel coherence effects in a two-level atom driven by a trichromatic field

We study the absorption and dispersion properties of a weak probe field monitoring a two-level atom driven by a trichromatic field. We calculate the steady-state linear susceptibility and find that the system can produce a number of multilevel coherence effects predicted for atoms composed of three and more energy levels. Although the atom has only one transition channel, the multilevel effects are possible because there are multichannel transitions between dressed states induced by the driving field. In particular, we show that the system can exhibit multiple electromagnetically induced transparency and can also produce a strong amplification at the central frequency which is not attributed to population inversion in both the atomic bare states and in the dressed atomic states. Moreover, we show that the absorption and dispersion of the probe field is sensitive to the initial relative phase of the components of the driving field. In addition, we show that the group velocity of the probe field can be controlled by changing the initial relative phases or frequencies of the driving fields and can also be varied from subluminal to superluminal. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.