A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

Effects of group status on responses to sustainable land use campaigns

A number of survey studies were conducted with landholders throughout Queensland to assess the effectiveness and perceived influence of campaigns promotng sustainable land use. While previous studies have addressed the role of group membership in persuasive communications, the current line of research extends this by focusing on the intergroup context, namely, the perceptions of group status. Across a range of samples it was found that landholders' perceptions of lower status in relation to urban people were associated with increased support for ingroup messages and decreased support for outgroup messages. These results are broadly consistent with research that suggests that threats to group identity (such as an infiuence attempt by a higher status group) will be responded to in a negative way and highlights the importance of considering relations between groups when attempting to change attiutudes.

Conservation planning with irreplaceability: does the method matter?

A number of systematic conservation planning tools are available to aid in making land use decisions. Given the increasing worldwide use and application of reserve design tools, including measures of site irreplaceability, it is essential that methodological differences and their potential effect on conservation planning outcomes are understood. We compared the irreplaceability of sites for protecting ecosystems within the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Queensland, Australia, using two alternative reserve system design tools, Marxan and C-Plan. We set Marxan to generate multiple reserve systems that met targets with minimal area; the first scenario ignored spatial objectives, while the second selected compact groups of areas. Marxan calculates the irreplaceability of each site as the proportion of solutions in which it occurs for each of these set scenarios. In contrast, C-Plan uses a statistical estimate of irreplaceability as the likelihood that each site is needed in all combinations of sites that satisfy the targets. We found that sites containing rare ecosystems are almost always irreplaceable regardless of the method. Importantly, Marxan and C-Plan gave similar outcomes when spatial objectives were ignored. Marxan with a compactness objective defined twice as much area as irreplaceable, including many sites with relatively common ecosystems. However, targets for all ecosystems were met using a similar amount of area in C-Plan and Marxan, even with compactness. The importance of differences in the outcomes of using the two methods will depend on the question being addressed; in general, the use of two or more complementary tools is beneficial.

Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach, Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.

Blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in coastal Queensland, Australia: disparate sites, common factors

During the last decade there has been a significant rise in observations of blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula along the east coast of Queensland, Australia. Whether the increase in cyanobacterial abundance is a biological indicator of widespread water quality degradation or also a function of other environmental change is unknown. A bioassay approach was used to assesses the potential for runoff from various land uses to stimulate productivity of L. majuscula. In Moreton Bay, L. majuscula productivity was significantly (p < 0.05) stimulated by soil extracts, which were high in phosphorus, iron and organic carbon. Productivity of L. majuscula from the Great Barrier Reef was also significantly (p < 0.05) elevated by iron and phosphorus rich extracts, in this case seabird guano adjacent to the bloom site. Hence, it is possible that other L. majuscula blooms are a result of similar stimulating factors (iron, phosphorus and organic carbon), delivered through different mechanisms. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water quality condition and trend in North Queensland waterways

The Queensland Environmental Protection Agency monitored water quality at 133 sites in North Queensland waterways between Cooktown and Bundaburg from 1992 to 2001. Condition of the waterways was rated by comparing recent data with the Queensland Water Quality Guidelines. Long-term trends were analysed using a censored regression technique that incorporates the effects of flow, temperature, seasonality and allows for long-term non-linear trends. Many sites were in good condition; those in poor condition were usually impacted by point source discharges; those in moderate condition were usually impacted by agricultural land use. There were no consistent long-term trends across the whole region. Recommendations for future programs include incorporating pressure indicators, ensuring high standards of quality assurance, including covariates such as rainfall in trend assessment and continuing programs over more than 10 years to allow detection of trends due to changes in land-use. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen, phosphorus, silica, and carbon in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: Differential limitation of phytoplankton biomass and production

Subtropical estuaries have received comparatively little attention in the study of nutrient loading and subsequent nutrient processing relative to temperate estuaries. Australian estuaries are particularly susceptible to increased nutrient loading and eutrophication, as 75% of the population resides within 200 km of the coastline. We assessed the factors potentially limiting both biomass and production in one Australian estuary, Moreton Bay, through stoichiometric comparisons of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), silicon (Si), and carbon (C) concentrations, particulate compositions, and rates of uptake. Samples were collected over 3 seasons in 1997-1998 at stations located throughout the bay system, including one riverine endmember site. Concentrations of all dissolved nutrients, as well as particulate nutrients and chlorophyll, declined 10-fold to 100-fold from the impacted western embayments to the eastern, more oceanic-influenced regions of the bay during all seasons. For all seasons and all regions, both the dissolved nutrients and particulate biomass yielded N : P ratios < 6 and N : Si ratios < 1. Both relationships suggest strong limitation of biomass by N throughout the bay. Limitation of rates of nutrient uptake and productivity were more complex. Low C : N and C : P uptake ratios at the riverine site suggested light limitation at all seasons, low N : P ratios suggested some degree of N limitation and high N : Si uptake ratios in austral winter suggested Si limitation of uptake during that season only. No evidence of P limitation of biomass or productivity was evident.

Cattle, crops and clearing: Regional drivers of landscape change in the Brigalow Belt, Queensland, Australia, 1840-2004

Landscape change occurs through the interaction of a multitude of natural and human driving forces at a range of organisational levels, with humans playing an increasingly dominant role in many regions of the world. Building on the current knowledge of the underlying drivers of landscape change, a conceptual framework of regional landscape change was developed which integrated population, economic and cultural values, policy and science/technology. Using the Southern Brigalow Belt biogeographic region of Queensland as a case study, the role of natural and human drivers in landscape change was investigated in four phases of settlement since 1840. The Brigalow Belt has experienced comparable rates of vegetation clearance over the past 50 years to areas of tropical deforestation. Economic factors were important during all phases of development, but the five regional drivers often acted in synergy. Environmental constraints played a significant role in slowing rates of change. Temporal trends of deforestation followed a sigmoidal curve, with initial slow change accelerating though the middle phases then slowing in recent times. Future landscape management needs to take account of the influence of all the components of the conceptual framework, at a range of organisational levels, if more ecologically sustainable outcomes are to be achieved. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance of forest area and configuration relative to local habitat factors for conserving forest mammals: A case study of koalas in Queensland, Australia

The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats by human land use are recognised as important factors influencing the decline of forest-dependent fauna. Mammal species that are dependent upon forest habitats are particularly sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have highly specific habitat requirements, and in many cases have limited ability to move through and utilise the land use matrix. We addressed this problem using a case study of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) surveyed in a fragmented rural-urban landscape in southeast Queensland, Australia. We applied a logistic modelling and hierarchical partitioning analysis to determine the importance of forest area and its configuration relative to site (local) and patch-level habitat variables. After taking into account spatial auto-correlation and the year of survey, we found koala occurrence increased with the area of all forest habitats, habitat patch size and the proportion of primary Eucalyptus tree species; and decreased with mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches, and the density of sealed roads. The difference between the effect of habitat area and configuration was not as strong as theory predicts, with the configuration of remnant forest becoming increasingly important as the area of forest habitat declines. We conclude that the area of forest, its configuration across the landscape, as well as the land use matrix, are important determinants of koala occurrence, and that habitat configuration should not be overlooked in the conservation of forest-dependent mammals, such as the koala. We highlight the implications of these findings for koala conservation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.