A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Effects of group status on responses to sustainable land use campaigns

A number of survey studies were conducted with landholders throughout Queensland to assess the effectiveness and perceived influence of campaigns promotng sustainable land use. While previous studies have addressed the role of group membership in persuasive communications, the current line of research extends this by focusing on the intergroup context, namely, the perceptions of group status. Across a range of samples it was found that landholders' perceptions of lower status in relation to urban people were associated with increased support for ingroup messages and decreased support for outgroup messages. These results are broadly consistent with research that suggests that threats to group identity (such as an infiuence attempt by a higher status group) will be responded to in a negative way and highlights the importance of considering relations between groups when attempting to change attiutudes.