An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

End-of-life decision making in Europe and Australia - A physician survey

Background: The frequencies with which physicians make different medical end-of-life decisions (ELDs) may differ between countries, but comparison between countries has been difficult owing to the use of dissimilar research methods. Methods: A written questionnaire was sent to a random sample of physicians from 9 specialties in 6 European countries and Australia to investigate possible differences in the frequencies of physicians' willingness to perform ELDs and to identify predicting factors. Response rates ranged from 39% to 68% (N= 10 139). Using hypothetical cases, physicians were asked whether they would ( probably) make each of 4 ELDs. Results: In all the countries, 75% to 99% of physicians would withhold chemotherapy or intensify symptom treatment at the request of a patient with terminal cancer. In most cases, more than half of all physicians would also be willing to deeply sedate such a patient until death. However, there was generally less willingness to administer drugs with the explicit intention of hastening death at the request of the patient. The most important predictor of ELDs was a request from a patient with decisional capacity (odds ratio, 2.1-140.0). Shorter patient life expectancy and uncontrollable pain were weaker predictors but were more stable across countries and across the various ELDs (odds ratios, 1.1-2.4 and 0.9-2.4, respectively). Conclusion: Cultural and legal factors seem to influence the frequencies of different ELDs and the strength of their determinants across countries, but they do not change the essence of decision making.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Social indicators and comparisons of living standards

Construction of an international index of standards of living, incorporating social indicators and economic output, typically involves scaling and weighting procedures that lack welfare-economic foundations. Revealed preference axioms can be used to make quality-of-life comparisons if we can estimate the representative household's production technology for the social indicators. This method is applied to comparisons of gross domestic product (GDP) and life expectancy for 58 countries. Neither GDP rankings, nor the rankings of the Human Development Index (HDI), are consistent with the partial ordering of revealed preference. A method of constructing a utility-consistent index incorporating both consumption and life expectancy is suggested. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of combination peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin compared with interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND: Sustained virological response (SVR) is the primary objective in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Results from a recent clinical trial of patients with previously untreated CHC demonstrate that the combination of peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin produces a greater SVR than interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin combination therapy. However, the cost-effectiveness of peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin in the U.S. setting has not been investigated. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to investigate cost-effectiveness in patients with CHC using genotype to guide treatment duration. SVR and disease progression parameters were derived from the clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. The impact of treatment on life expectancy and costs were projected for a lifetime. Patients who had an SVR were assumed to remain virus-free for the rest of their lives. In genotype 1 patients, the SVRs were 46% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 36% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. In genotype 2/3 patients, the SVRs were 76% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 61% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Quality of life and costs were based on estimates from the literature. All costs were based on published U.S. medical care costs and were adjusted to 2003 U.S. dollars. Costs and benefits beyond the first year were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: In genotype 1, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY) by 0.70 yr compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin, producing a cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,600 per QALY gained. In genotype 2/3 patients, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases QALY by 1.05 yr in comparison to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Peginterferon alpha-2a combination therapy in patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 is dominant (more effective and cost saving) compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Results weighted by genotype prevalence (75% genotype 1; 25% genotype 2 or 3) also show that peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin is dominant. Peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin remained cost-effective (below $16,500 per QALY gained) under sensitivity analyses on key clinical and cost parameters. CONCLUSION: Peginterferon alpha-2a in combination with ribavirin with duration of therapy based on genotype, is cost-effective compared with conventional interferon alpha-2b in combination with ribavirin when given to treatment-naive adults with CHC.

A simple lifestyle score predicts survival in healthy elderly men

Background. Although improvements in life expectancy have been attributed in part to the adoption or a more prudent lifestyle, few studies have examined the association of lifestyle with survival, using several lifestyle factors simultaneously, in a healthy elderly population. Methods. We investigated the association of health related behaviors with mortality in 7989 men aged 65 to 83 years participating in a population-based trial in Perth, Western Australia, by calculating a lifestyle score as a simple tally of flow many or eight prudent behaviors each individual followed. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. Out of a possible score of 8.46% of men had a score of less than 5. Within 5 years, a total of 703 men (9%) had died from any cause. The hazard ratio in men with a low lifestyle score was 1.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.5] compared with men with a score of 5 or more. Conclusions. Lifestyle remains an important predictor of mortality even in old age. Survival in older men without a history of cardiovascular disease can potentially be enhanced by promoting a healthy lifestyle. © 2004 Elsevier Inc, All rights reserved.

Health investment, saving, and public policy

This paper develops an overlapping-generations model in which agents invest in health to prolong life in both working and retirement periods. It explores how unfunded social security with or without health subsidies affects life expectancy, economic growth, and welfare. In particular, by extending life at a possible cost of capital accumulation, health subsidies and a pay-as-you-go pension can improve welfare, especially in the short run.

Adult obesity and number of years lived with and without cardiovascular disease

Objective: To determine the differences in number of years lived free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and number of years lived with CVD between men and women who were obese, pre-obese, or normal weight at 45 years of age. Research Methods and Procedures: We constructed multistate life tables for CVD, myocardial infarction, and stroke, using data from 2551 enrollees (1130 men) in the Framingham Heart Study who were 45 years of age. Results: Obesity and pre-obesity were associated with fewer number of years free of CVD, myocardial infarction, and stroke and an increase in the number of years lived with these diseases. Forty-five-year-old obese men with no CVD survived 6.0 years [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.1; 8.1] fewer than their normal weight counterparts, whereas, for women, the difference between obese and normal weight subjects was 8.4 years (95% CI: 6.2; 10.8). Obese men and women lived with CVD 2.7 (95% CI: 1.0; 4.4) and 1.4 years (95% CI: -0.3; 3.2) longer, respectively, than normal weight individuals. Discussion: In addition to reducing life expectancy, obesity before middle age is associated with a reduction in the number of years lived free of CVD and an increase in the number of years lived with CVD. Such information is paramount for preventive and therapeutic decision-making by individuals and practitioners alike.

Cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with previous acute coronary syndromes aged 65 to 74 years compared with younger patients: Results from the LIPID study

Background We compared cost-effectiveness of pravastatin in a placebo-controlled trial in 5500 younger (31-64 years) and 3514 older patients (65-74 years) with previous acute coronary syndromes. Methods Hospitalizations and long-term medication within the 6 years of the trial were estimated in all patients. Drug dosage, nursing home, and ambulatory care costs were estimated from substudies. Incremental costs per life saved of pravastatin relative to placebo were estimated from treatment effects and resource use. Results Over 6 years, pravastatin reduced all-cause mortality by 4.3% in the older patients and by 2.3% in the younger patients. Older patients assigned pravastatin had marginally lower cost of pravastatin and other medication over 6 years (A$4442 vs A$4637), but greater cost offsets (A$2061 vs. A$897) from lower rates of hospitalizations. The incremental cost per life saved with pravastatin was A$55500 in the old and A$167200 in the young. Assuming no treatment effect beyond the study period, the life expectancy to age 82 years of additional survivors was 9.1 years in the older and. 17.3 years in the younger. Estimated additional life-years saved from pravastatin therapy were 0.39 years for older and 0.40 years for younger patients. Incremental costs per life-year saved were A$7581 in the older and A$1.4944 in the younger, if discounted at 5% per annum. Conclusions Pravastatin therapy was more cost-effective among older than younger patients, because of their higher baseline risk and greater cost offsets, despite their shorter life expectancy.

Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.

Strong and weak lifespan extension: What is most feasible and likely?

Recent advances in biomedical science indicate that it may eventually be possible to intervene in the biological process of human ageing. This paper overviews the current state of the science of lifespan extension and promising future directions. It is uncertain whether 'strong' lifespan extension - the extension of human life beyond the maximum 122 years so far observed - will become a reality. It is more likely that cumulative effects of numerous scientific and biomedical advances in the treatment of common disease will produce 'weak' lifespan extension - the extension of average life expectancy. The practical application of molecular, genetic and nanomaterials research may also lead to advances in life expectancy. It is not too early to begin to consider the policy implications of either form of lifespan extension.

Supportive care needs of people with brain tumours and their carers

Goals of work: The diagnosis and treatment of a brain tumour may result in long-term changes in a patient's functional and social abilities and/or in a greatly reduced life span. A qualitative investigation was conducted to examine the supportive care needs of patients with brain tumour and their carers. Materials and methods: Overall, 18 patients and 18 carers participated in focus groups or telephone interviews, following a structured interview guide to elicit supportive care services of importance to these patients and carers. Main results: Six major themes were identified using the framework analysis method, including needs for information and coping with uncertainty, practical support, support to return to pretreatment responsibilities or prepare for long-term care, support to deal with social isolation and organize respite care, support to overcome stigma/discrimination and support to discuss potentially reduced life expectancy. Conclusions: Five recommendations to improve service delivery include: assignment of a dedicated member of the care team or case manager; proactive dissemination of information, education and psychosocial support; access to objective assessment of neuropsychological functioning; facilitating easier access to welfare payments; and services facilitating communication about difficult illness-related topics. Provision of services along these recommendations could improve supportive care of brain tumour patients and their carers.

What does the community think about lifespan extension technologies? The need for an empirical base for ethical and policy debates

Objectives: This paper examines public understandings of possibilities for increasing life expectancy, interest in taking up lifespan-extending interventions, and motivations influencing these intentions. Methods: Structured interviews were conducted with 31 adults, aged 50 and over. Results: Participants believed that technological advances would increase life expectancy but questioned the value of quantity over quality of life. Life in itself was not considered valuable without the ability to put it to good use. Participants would not use technologies to extend their own lifespan unless the result would also enhance their health. Conclusions: These findings may not be generalisable to the general public but they provide the first empirical evidence on the plausibility of common assumptions about public interest in 'anti-ageing' interventions. Surveys of the views of representative samples of the population are needed to inform the development of a research agenda on the ethical, legal and social implications of lifespan extension.