Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Archaeology and age of a new hominin from Flores in eastern Indonesia

Excavations at Liang Bua, a large limestone cave on the island of Flores in eastern Indonesia, have yielded evidence for a population of tiny hominins, sufficiently distinct anatomically to be assigned to a new species, Homo floresiensis(1). The finds comprise the cranial and some post-cranial remains of one individual, as well as a premolar from another individual in older deposits. Here we describe their context, implications and the remaining archaeological uncertainties. Dating by radiocarbon (C-14), luminescence, uranium-series and electron spin resonance (ESR) methods indicates that H. floresiensis existed from before 38,000 years ago (kyr) until at least 18 kyr. Associated deposits contain stone artefacts and animal remains, including Komodo dragon and an endemic, dwarfed species of Stegodon. H. floresiensis originated from an early dispersal of Homo erectus ( including specimens referred to as Homo ergaster and Homo georgicus)(1) that reached Flores, and then survived on this island refuge until relatively recently. It overlapped significantly in time with Homo sapiens in the region(2,3), but we do not know if or how the two species interacted.