The cross-entropy method for network reliability estimation

Consider a network of unreliable links, modelling for example a communication network. Estimating the reliability of the network-expressed as the probability that certain nodes in the network are connected-is a computationally difficult task. In this paper we study how the Cross-Entropy method can be used to obtain more efficient network reliability estimation procedures. Three techniques of estimation are considered: Crude Monte Carlo and the more sophisticated Permutation Monte Carlo and Merge Process. We show that the Cross-Entropy method yields a speed-up over all three techniques.

Composite auction method for suppressing unreasonable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market

The existence of undesirable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market requires an efficient auction mechanism. However, many of the existing auction mechanism have difficulties in suppressing such unreasonable price spikes effectively. A new auction mechanism is proposed to suppress effectively unreasonable price spikes in a competitive electricity market. It optimally combines system marginal price auction and pay as bid auction mechanisms. A threshold value is determined to activate the switching between the marginal price auction and the proposed composite auction. Basically when the system marginal price is higher than the threshold value, the composite auction for high price electricity market is activated. The winning electricity sellers will sell their electricity at the system marginal price or their own bid prices, depending on their rights of being paid at the system marginal price and their offers' impact on suppressing undesirable price spikes. Such economic stimuli discourage sellers from practising economic and physical withholdings. Multiple price caps are proposed to regulate strong market power. We also compare other auction mechanisms to highlight the characteristics of the proposed one. Numerical simulation using the proposed auction mechanism is given to illustrate the procedure of this new auction mechanism.

An innovative method of increasing early detection for skin cancer in Australia

Objective: To evaluate a family practice intervention to encourage patients to request a skin examination during their consultation. Methods: Family physicians in Queensland, Australia, were randomized to intervention or control groups. In the intervention group, materials were provided by the office receptionist and supported by the family physician. Results: The rate of full-body skin examination was 99.3/ 1000 consultations in intervention-group practices compared to 22.4/ 1000 in control-group practices (p

A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Assessing the taxonomic status of dingoes Canis familiaris dingo for conservation

1. The conservation status of the dingo Canis familiaris dingo is threatened by hybridization with the domestic dog C. familiaris familiaris. A practical method that can estimate the different levels of hybridization in the field is urgently required so that animals below a specific threshold of dingo ancestry (e.g. 1/4 or 1/2 dingoes) can reliably be identified and removed from dingo populations. 2. Skull morphology has been traditionally used to assess dingo purity, but this method does not discriminate between the different levels of dingo ancestry in hybrids. Furthermore, measurements can only be reliably taken from the skulls of dead animals. 3. Methods based on the analysis of variation in DNA are able to discriminate between the different levels of hybridization, but the validity of this method has been questioned because the materials currently used as a reference for dingoes are from captive animals of unproven genetic purity. The use of pre-European materials would improve the accuracy of this method, but suitable material has not been found in sufficient quantity to develop a reliable reference population. Furthermore, current methods based on DNA are impractical for the field-based discrimination of hybrids because samples require laboratory analysis. 4. Coat colour has also been used to estimate the extent of hybridization and is possibly the most practical method to apply in the field. However, this method may not be as powerful as genetic or morphological analyses because some hybrids (e.g. Australian cattle dog x dingo) are similar to dingoes in coat colour and body form. This problem may be alleviated by using additional visual characteristics such as the presence/absence of ticking and white markings.

Clinical signs and duration of cyanide toxicosis delivered by the M-44 ejector in wild dogs

Sodium cyanide poison is potentially a more humane method to control wild dogs than sodium fluoroacetate (1080) poison. This study quantified the clinical signs and duration of cyanide toxicosis delivered by the M-44 ejector. The device delivered a nominal 0.88 g of sodium cyanide, which caused the animal to loose the menace reflex in a mean of 43 s, and the animal was assumed to have undergone cerebral hypoxia after the last visible breath. The mean time to cerebral hypoxia was 156 s for a vertical pull and 434 s for a side pull. The difference was possibly because some cyanide may be lost in a side Pull. There were three distinct phases of cyanide toxicosis: the initial phase was characterised by head shaking, panting and salivation; the immobilisation phase by incontinence, ataxia and loss of the righting reflex; and the cerebral hypoxia phase by a tetanic seizure. Clinical signs that were exhibited in more than one phase of cyanide toxicosis included retching, agonal breathing, vocalisation, vomiting, altered levels of ocular reflex, leg paddling, tonic muscular spasms, respiratory distress and muscle fasciculations of the muzzle.

Cryopreservation of spermatozoa of black marlin, Makaira indica (Teleostei : Istiophoredae)

As a first step towards the development of a method for the cryopreservation of black marlin spermatozoa, this study investigated the effect of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) concentration and pellet size on post-thaw spermatozoal motility. Spermatozoa were recovered from the spermatic duct of testes retrieved post-mortem from four adult black marlin caught in the Coral Sea spawning grounds of Australia. Undiluted spermatozoa. were stored on ice for 4 to 10 hours during transport to shore, then evaluated for motility after activation in seawater (1:10 v:v). Spermatozoa were prepared for cryopreservation in pellets by extension (1:3 v:v) in a defined fish Ringer's solution to give two final DMSO concentrations of 2.5% or 5.0%. Diluted spermatozoa were frozen directly on a dry ice block in pellet sizes of either 0.25 ml or 0.50 ml. Frozen pellets were thawed in a water bath at 40 degrees C for 60 seconds and assessed for post-thaw motility following activation in seawater. Spermatozoa recovered within 50 minutes of death and chilled on ice for 4 to 10 hours showed a mean (+/- SEM) motility immediately following activation of 91.6 +/- 7.9%. 50% of the spermatozoa remained motile for approximately 4 to 5 minutes. Following cryopreservation; mean motility declined significantly across all cryoprotectant and pellet size combinations (P < 0.001) but spermatozoa frozen in 2.5% DMSO showed higher motility than those frozen in 5.0% DMSO (P = 0.014). Pellet size had no effect on post-thaw motility (P = 0.179).

First-principles quantum dynamics in interacting Bose gases: I. The positive P representation

The performance of the positive P phase-space representation for exact many- body quantum dynamics is investigated. Gases of interacting bosons are considered, where the full quantum equations to simulate are of a Gross-Pitaevskii form with added Gaussian noise. This method gives tractable simulations of many-body systems because the number of variables scales linearly with the spatial lattice size. An expression for the useful simulation time is obtained, and checked in numerical simulations. The dynamics of first-, second- and third-order spatial correlations are calculated for a uniform interacting 1D Bose gas subjected to a change in scattering length. Propagation of correlations is seen. A comparison is made with other recent methods. The positive P method is particularly well suited to open systems as no conservation laws are hard-wired into the calculation. It also differs from most other recent approaches in that there is no truncation of any kind.

Transmission planning in a deregulated environment

The worldwide trend for the deregulation of the electricity generation and transmission industries has led to dramatic changes in system operation and planning procedures. The optimum approach to transmission-expansion planning in a deregulated environment is an open problem especially when the responsibilities of the organisations carrying out the planning work need to be addressed. To date there is a consensus that the system operator and network manager perform the expansion planning work in a centralised way. However, with an increasing input from the electricity market, the objectives, constraints and approaches toward transmission planning should be carefully designed to ensure system reliability as well as meeting the market requirements. A market-oriented approach for transmission planning in a deregulated environment is proposed. Case studies using the IEEE 14-bus system and the Australian national electricity market grid are performed. In addition, the proposed method is compared with a traditional planning method to further verify its effectiveness.

Differential evolution based total transfer capability assessment with optimal dispatch

In this paper, a new differential evolution (DE) based power system optimal available transfer capability (ATC) assessment is presented. Power system total transfer capability (TTC) is traditionally solved by the repeated power flow (RPF) method and the continuation power flow (CPF) method. These methods are based on the assumption that the productions of the source area generators are increased in identical proportion to balance the load increment in the sink area. A new approach based on DE algorithm to generate optimal dispatch both in source area generators and sink area loads is proposed in this paper. This new method can compute ATC between two areas with significant improvement in accuracy compared with the traditional RPF and CPF based methods. A case study using a 30 bus system is given to verify the efficiency and effectiveness of this new DE based ATC optimization approach.