A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

James Parkinson (1755-1824): A pioneer of child care

James Parkinson (1755-1824) of Parkinson's disease, is well recognized as a pioneer of clinical neurology; and is even more famous as a founder of modem palaeontology. We have reviewed from primary sources his extensive contributions to clinical child care and his pioneering advocacy for child welfare, protection and safety. His writings, outreach and advocacy for children's health characterizes him as one whose influence was an important springboard from which evolved the modern specialty of paediatrics. Parkinson was one of the first to write on child-rearing practices and in this context antedated Benjamin Spock by 150 years. Parkinson was a pioneer of child safety and the prevention of childhood trauma. He wrote of the resuscitation of near-drowned children and of first aid for injured children. This critical analysis reviews his pioneering description of child abuse and the development of post-abuse hydrocephalus. He wrote the datum description (in English) of the pathophysiology and pathology of appendicitis in children, of fatal rabies in children and highlighted the risk of death even when the biting dog was not clinically rabid. His advocacy for social reform for children's welfare was courageous and pioneering. James Parkinson, hitherto unacknowledged, was a significant founder of the evolving discipline of paediatrics and child health.

James W. Gerard: His image of imperial Germany, 1913-1918

The subject of this study was a typical, if in some respects well qualified, U.S. ambassadorial appointee for his time, the early twentieth century: an attorney, judge, and politician who served competently in his one diplomatic assignment, in Berlin, before returning to private life.—Ed.