Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

Integration of sulphate reduction, autotrophic denitrification and nitrification to achieve low-cost excess sludge minimisation for Hong Kong sewage

An integrated anaerobic-aerobic treatment system of sulphate-laden wastewater was proposed here to achieve low sludge production, low energy consumption and effective sulphide control. Before integrating the whole system, the feasibility of autotrophic denitrification utilising dissolved sulphide produced during anaerobic treatment of sulphate rich wastewater was studied here. An upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactor was operated to treat sulphate-rich synthetic wastewater (TOC = 100 mg/L and sulphate = 500 mg/L) and its effluent with dissolved sulphide and external nitrate solution were fed into an anoxic biofilter. The anaerobic reactor was able to remove 77-85% of TOC at HRT of 3 h and produce 70-90 mg S/L sulphide in dissolved form for the subsequent denitrification. The performance of anoxic reactor was stable, and the anoxic reactor could remove 30 mg N/L nitrate at HRT of 2 h through autotrophic denitrification. Furthermore, sulphur balance for the anoxic filter showed that more than 90% of the removed sulphide was actually oxidised into sulphate, thereby there was no accumulation of sulphur particles in the filter bed. The net sludge productions were approximately 0.15 to 0.18 g VSS/g COD in the anaerobic reactor and 0.22 to 0.31 g VSS/g NO3--N in the anoxic reactor. The findings in this study will be helpful in developing the integrated treatment system to achieve low-cost excess sludge minimisation.

Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Health investment, saving, and public policy

This paper develops an overlapping-generations model in which agents invest in health to prolong life in both working and retirement periods. It explores how unfunded social security with or without health subsidies affects life expectancy, economic growth, and welfare. In particular, by extending life at a possible cost of capital accumulation, health subsidies and a pay-as-you-go pension can improve welfare, especially in the short run.