Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of water retention curve from mercury intrusion porosimetry and van Genuchten model

The water retention curve (WRC) is a hydraulic characteristic of concrete required for advanced modeling of water (and thus solute) transport in variably saturated, heterogeneous concrete. Unfortunately, determination by a direct experimental method (for example, measuring equilibrium moisture levels of large samples stored in constant humidity cells) is a lengthy process, taking over 2 years for large samples. A surrogate approach is presented in which the WRC is conveniently estimated from mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and validated by water sorption isotherms: The well-known Barrett, Joyner and Halenda (BJH) method of estimating the pore size distribution (PSD) from the water sorption isotherm is shown to complement the PSD derived from conventional MIP. This provides a basis for predicting the complete WRC from MIP data alone. The van Genuchten equation is used to model the combined water sorption and MIP results. It is a convenient tool for describing water retention characteristics over the full moisture content range. The van Genuchten parameter estimation based solely on MIP is shown to give a satisfactory approximation to the WRC, with a simple restriction on one. of the parameters.

Early and mid Holocene tool-use and processing of taro (Colocasia esculenta), yam (Dioscorea sp.) and other plants at Kuk Swamp in the highlands of Papua New Guinea

Recent multidisciplinary investigations document an independent emergence of agriculture at Kuk Swamp in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. In this paper we report preliminary usewear analysis and details of prehistoric use of stone tools for processing starchy food and other plants at Kuk Swamp. Morphological diagnostics for starch granules are reported for two potentially significant economic species, taro (Colocasia esculenta) and yam (Dioscorea sp.), following comparisons between prehistoric and botanical reference specimens. Usewear and residue analyses of starch granules indicate that both these species were processed on the wetland margin during the early and mid Holocene. We argue that processing of taro and yam commences by at least 10,200 calibrated years before present (cal BP), although the taro and yam starch granules do not permit us to distinguish between wild or cultivated forms. From at least 6950 to 6440 cal BP the processing of taro, yam and other plants indicates that they are likely to have been integrated into cultivation practices on the wetland edge.

Effects of group status on responses to sustainable land use campaigns

A number of survey studies were conducted with landholders throughout Queensland to assess the effectiveness and perceived influence of campaigns promotng sustainable land use. While previous studies have addressed the role of group membership in persuasive communications, the current line of research extends this by focusing on the intergroup context, namely, the perceptions of group status. Across a range of samples it was found that landholders' perceptions of lower status in relation to urban people were associated with increased support for ingroup messages and decreased support for outgroup messages. These results are broadly consistent with research that suggests that threats to group identity (such as an infiuence attempt by a higher status group) will be responded to in a negative way and highlights the importance of considering relations between groups when attempting to change attiutudes.