Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-organisational networks, value creation and the process of technology integration in research and development

Traditional methods of R&D management are no longer sufficient for embracing innovations and leveraging complex new technologies to fully integrated positions in established systems. This paper presents the view that the technology integration process is a result of fundamental interactions embedded in inter-organisational activities. Emerging industries, high technology companies and knowledge intensive organisations owe a large part of their viability to complex networks of inter-organisational interactions and relationships. R&D organisations are the gatekeepers in the technology integration process with their initial sanction and motivation to develop technologies providing the first point of entry. Networks rely on the activities of stakeholders to provide the foundations of collaborative R&D activities, business-to-business marketing and strategic alliances. Such complex inter-organisational interactions and relationships influence value creation and organisational goals as stakeholders seek to gain investment opportunities. A theoretical model is developed here that contributes to our understanding of technology integration (adoption) as a dynamic process, which is simultaneously structured and enacted through the activities of stakeholders and organisations in complex inter-organisational networks of sanction and integration.

Spectral properties of the tandem Jackson network, seen as a quasi-birth-and-death process

Quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) processes with infinite “phase spaces” can exhibit unusual and interesting behavior. One of the simplest examples of such a process is the two-node tandem Jackson network, with the “phase” giving the state of the first queue and the “level” giving the state of the second queue. In this paper, we undertake an extensive analysis of the properties of this QBD. In particular, we investigate the spectral properties of Neuts’s R-matrix and show that the decay rate of the stationary distribution of the “level” process is not always equal to the convergence norm of R. In fact, we show that we can obtain any decay rate from a certain range by controlling only the transition structure at level zero, which is independent of R. We also consider the sequence of tandem queues that is constructed by restricting the waiting room of the first queue to some finite capacity, and then allowing this capacity to increase to infinity. We show that the decay rates for the finite truncations converge to a value, which is not necessarily the decay rate in the infinite waiting room case. Finally, we show that the probability that the process hits level n before level 0 given that it starts in level 1 decays at a rate which is not necessarily the same as the decay rate for the stationary distribution.

Finite element modelling of rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems

We use the finite element method to simulate the rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we consider the fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated porous rocks. Since the fluid rock interaction takes place at the contact interface between the pore-fluid and solid minerals, it is governed by the chemical reaction which usually takes place very slowly at this contact interface, from the geochemical point of view. Due to the relative slowness of the rate of the chemical reaction to the velocity of the pore-fluid flow in the hydrothermal system to be considered, there exists a retardation zone, in which the conventional static theory in geochemistry does not hold true. Since this issue is often overlooked by some purely numerical modellers, it is emphasized in this paper. The related results from a typical rock alteration and metamorphic problem in a hydrothermal system have shown not only the detailed rock alteration and metamorphic process, but also the size of the retardation zone in the hydrothermal system. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Referral to rehabilitation following traumatic brain injury: practitioners and the process of decision-making

The study aimed to examine the factors influencing referral to rehabilitation following traumatic brain injury (TBI) by using social problems theory as a conceptual model to focus on practitioners and the process of decision-making in two Australian hospitals. The research design involved semi-structured interviews with 18 practitioners and observations of 10 team meetings, and was part of a larger study on factors influencing referral to rehabilitation in the same settings. Analysis revealed that referral decisions were influenced primarily by practitioners' selection and their interpretation of clinical and non-clinical patient factors. Further, practitioners generally considered patient factors concurrently during an ongoing process of decision-making, with the combinations and interactions of these factors forming the basis for interpretations of problems and referral justifications. Key patient factors considered in referral decisions included functional and tracheostomy status, time since injury, age, family, place of residence and Indigenous status. However, rate and extent of progress, recovery potential, safety and burden of care, potential for independence and capacity to cope were five interpretative themes, which emerged as the justifications for referral decisions. The subsequent negotiation of referral based on patient factors was in turn shaped by the involvement of practitioners. While multi-disciplinary processes of decision-making were the norm, allied health professionals occupied a central role in referral to rehabilitation, and involvement of medical, nursing and allied health practitioners varied. Finally, the organizational pressures and resource constraints, combined with practitioners' assimilation of the broader efficiency agenda were central factors shaping referral. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated versus non-integrated management and care for clients with co-occurring mental health and substance use disorders: a qualitative systematic review of randomised controlled trials

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a qualitative review of randomised controlled trials in relation to the treatment of adults with co-occurring mental health and substance use disorder (MH/SUD). In particular, integrated approaches are compared with non-integrated approaches to treatment. Ten articles were identified for inclusion in the review. The findings are equivocal with regard to the superior efficacy of integrated approaches to treatment, although the many limitations of the studies need to be considered in our understanding of this finding. Clearly, this is an extremely challenging client group to engage and maintain in intervention research, and the complexity and variability of the problems render control particularly difficult. The lack of available evidence to support the superiority of integration is discussed in relation to these challenges. Much remains to be investigated with regard to integrated management and care for people with co-occurring and MH/SUD, particularly for specific combinations of dual diagnosis and giving consideration to the level of inter-relatedness between the disorders. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Pb- and S-isotope investigation of sulphide minerals from the early Archaean of southwest Greenland

We present high-spatial resolution secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) measurements of Pb and S isotopes in sulphides from early Archaean samples at two localities in southwest Greenland. Secondary pyrite from a 3.71 Ga sample of magnetite-quartz banded iron formation in the Isua Greenstone Belt, which has previously yielded unradiogenic Pb consistent with its ancient origin, contains sulphur with a mass independently fractionated (MIF) isotope signature (Delta(33)S =+3.3 parts per thousand). This reflects the secondary mineralization of remobilized sedimentary S carrying a component modified by photochemical reactions in the early Archaean atmosphere. It further represents one of the most extreme positive excursions so far known from the early Archaean rock record. Sulphides from a quartz-pyroxene rock and an ultramafic boudin from the island of Akilia, in the Godth (a) over circle bsfjord, have heterogeneous and generally radiogenic Pb isotopic compositions that we interpret to represent partial re-equilibration of Pb between the sulphides and whole rocks during tectonothermal events at 3.6, 2.7 and 1.6 Ga. Both these samples have Delta(33)S=0 (within analytical error) and therefore show no evidence for MIF sulphur. These data are consistent with previous interpretations that the rock cannot be proven to have a sedimentary origin. Our study illustrates that SIMS S-isotope measurements in ancient rocks can be used to elucidate early atmospheric parameters because of the ability to obtain combined S and Pb-isotope data, but caution must be applied when using such data to infer protolith. When information from geological context, petrography and chronology (i.e. by Pb isotopes) is combined and fully evaluated, Delta(33)S signatures from sulphides and their geological significance can be interpreted with a higher degree of confidence. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Comparison between myocardial integrated backscatter and strain rate imaging in the quantitative assessment of subepicardial function post-myocardial infarction

Transmural extent of infarction (TME) may be an important determinant of functional recovery and remodeling. Recent animal data suggest that strain rate imaging (SRI) maybe able to identify subendocardial ischemia.We compared SRI and cyclic variation of integrated backscatter (CVIB) for predicting TME in the quantitative assessment of regional subepicardial function. Forty-nine (n = 49) postmyocardial infarct patients (61±10 years, EF 41±10%) underwent tissue Doppler echocardiography (TDE) and contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CMR). A15 mm×2mm sampling volume (tracked to wall motion) was placed over the long axis subepicardial region of each segment during TDE offline analysis to measure peak longitudinal systolic strain rate (SR), peak longitudinal systolic strain (PS), and CVIB. Findingswere compared with TME classified into two categories of scar thickness by CMR: Non-transmural (TME≤50%), and transmural (TME > 50%). Of 213 segments identified with resting wall motion abnormalities, 145 segments showed delayed hyperenhancement on CMR. SR, PS and CVIB were similar with no significant differences between transmural and non-transmural infarcts regardless of the echo modality.