Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

Conceptualizing special interest tourism - frameworks for analysis

To advance understanding of Special Interest Tourism (SIT), this paper will explore the complexities of this phenomenon in the early 21st century. First, a look at what is out there, both from a supply and demand perspective, will serve to paint a broad picture at macro-level. The paper will present a discussion of the SIT phenomenon at the macro-level within a triangular relationship of supply, demand and media. Then, a more specific look at SIT attempts to clarify the ambiguity of the term. Finally, a look at micro-level from the consumer's perspective will introduce the concepts of enduring and situational involvement, and the nature of the product. Proposed frameworks are presented to provide structure and possible directions for future research and as a means of progressing conceptual development. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variation among Australian accessions of the wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp sublobata) for traits of agronomic, adaptive, or taxonomic interest

The wild mungbean, Vigna radiata ssp. sublobata, is an 'old world' tropical species indigenous throughout the better watered areas of northern Australia. Variation among 115 accessions, mainly from Australia, West Timor, and Papua New Guinea, was evaluated for several diverse traits. The plants were cultivated in the field at 2 sowing dates, at both a tropical and a subtropical location, with 6 accessions from India and a mungbean cultivar for comparison. Substantial variation was identified for traits of potential agronomic, adaptive, or taxonomic interest. For some traits, like phenology, the variation appeared to be systematic, with plausible underlying physiological and/or adaptive explanation. Among accessions, wild type traits, like prostrate habit, more gracile morphology, twining form, and small hard seeds, tended to be associated. There was a general geographic trend for lines collected from locations more remote from where mungbean has historically been cultivated to show greater expression of wild type traits, with few 'traits of domestication' evident in the Australian accessions. Some of the identified variation, e. g. higher seed protein content, hardseededness, and putative disease resistance, may be of value in mungbean variety improvement. A more targetted evaluation of the collection would likely reveal other adaptations, especially tolerance to environmental stresses. As such, the wild accessions are a potentially valuable if under-utilised germplasm resource.