Using circular statistics to analyse time patterns in crime incidence

A set of techniques referred to as circular statistics has been developed for the analysis of directional and orientational data. The unit of measure for such data is angular (usually in either degrees or radians), and the statistical distributions underlying the techniques are characterised by their cyclic nature-for example, angles of 359.9 degrees are considered close to angles of 0 degrees. In this paper, we assert that such approaches can be easily adapted to analyse time-of-day and time-of-week data, and in particular daily cycles in the numbers of incidents reported to the police. We begin the paper by describing circular statistics. We then discuss how these may be modified, and demonstrate the approach with some examples for reported incidents in the Cardiff area of Wales. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tennis, incidence of URTI and salivary IgA

Tennis played at an elite level requires intensive training characterized by repeated bouts of brief intermittent high intensity exercise over relatively long periods of time (1 - 3 h or more). Competition can place additional stress on players. The purpose of this study was to investigate the temporal association between specific components of tennis training and competition, the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections (URT1), and salivary IgA, in a cohort of seventeen elite female tennis players. Timed, whole unstimulated saliva samples were collected before and after selected 1-h training sessions at 2 weekly intervals, over 12 weeks. Salivary IgA concentration was measured by ELISA and IgA secretion rate calculated (mug IgA x ml(-1) x ml saliva x min(-1)). Players reported URTI symptoms and recorded training and competition in daily logs. Data analysis showed that higher incidence of URTI was significantly associated with increased training duration and load, and competition level, on a weekly basis. Salivary IgA secretion rate (S-IgA) dropped significantly after 1 hour of tennis play. Over the 12-week period, pre-exercise salivary IgA concentration and secretion rate were directly associated with the amount of training undertaken during the previous day and week (p < 0.05). However, the decline in S-IgA after 1 h of intense tennis play was also positively related to the duration and load of training undertaken during the previous day and week (p < 0.05). Although exercise-induced suppression of salivary IgA may be a risk factor, it could not accurately predict the occurrence of URTI in this cohort of athletes.

The incidence and intensity of employer funded training: Australian evidence on the impact of flexible work

The interaction between the growth of flexible forms of employment and employer funded training is important for understanding labour market performance. In particular, the idea of a trade-off has been advanced to describe potential market failures in the employment of flexible workers. This study finds that evidence of a trade-off is apparent in both the incidence and intensity of employer funded training. Flexible workers receive training that is 50-80% less intense than the workforce average. Casual workers - especially males - suffer more acutely from the trade-off. This suggests that flexible production externalities may seriously reduce human capital formation in the workforce.

Whole genome analysis reveals a high incidence of non-optimal codons in secretory signal sequences of Escherichia coli

Translational pausing may occur due to a number of mechanisms, including the presence of non-optimal codons, and it is thought to play a role in the folding of specific polypeptide domains during translation and in the facilitation of signal peptide recognition during see-dependent protein targeting. In this whole genome analysis of Escherichia coli we have found that non-optimal codons in the signal peptide-encoding sequences of secretory genes are overrepresented relative to the mature portions of these genes; this is in addition to their overrepresentation in the 5'-regions of genes encoding non-secretory proteins. We also find increased non-optimal codon usage at the 3' ends of most E. coli genes, in both non-secretory and secretory sequences. Whereas presumptive translational pausing at the 5' and 3' ends of E. coli messenger RNAs may clearly have a general role in translation, we suggest that it also has a specific role in sec-dependent protein export, possibly in facilitating signal peptide recognition. This finding may have important implications for our understanding of how the majority of non-cytoplasmic proteins are targeted, a process that is essential to all biological cells. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adult-population incidence of severe sepsis in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units

Objective. To determine the population incidence and outcome of severe sepsis occurring in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs), and compare with recent retrospective estimates from the USA and UK. Design. Inception cohort study. Setting. Twenty-three closed multi-disciplinary ICUs of 21 hospitals (16 tertiary and 5 university affiliated) in Australia and New Zealand. Patients. A total of 5878 consecutive ICU admission episodes. Measurements and results. Main outcome measures were population-based incidence of severe sepsis, mortality at ICU discharge, mortality at 28 days after onset of severe sepsis, and mortality at hospital discharge. A total of 691 patients, 11.8 (95% confidence intervals 10.9-12.6) per 100 ICU admissions, were diagnosed with 752 episodes of severe sepsis. Site of infection was pulmonary in 50.3% of episodes and abdominal in 19.3% of episodes. The calculated incidence of severe sepsis in adults treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 (0.76-0.79) per 1000 of population. 26.5% of patients with severe sepsis died in ICU, 32.4% died within 28 days of the diagnosis of severe sepsis and 37.5% died in hospital. Conclusion. In this prospective study, 11.8 patients per 100 ICU admissions were diagnosed with severe sepsis and the calculated annual incidence of severe sepsis in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 per 1000 of population. This figure for the population incidence falls in the lower range of recent estimates from retrospective studies in the U.S. and the U.K.

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices ( 307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common comorbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a beta blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p < 0.001). Among patients, 75 years 26% were prescribed a β blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients &GE; 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients < 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women.

The effect of skin examination surveys on the incidence of basal cell carcinoma in a Queensland community sample: A 10-year longitudinal study

Skin cancers pose a significant public health problem in high-risk populations. We have prospectively monitored basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) incidence in a Queensland community over a 10-y period by recording newly treated lesions, supplemented by skin examination surveys. Age-standardized incidence rates of people with new histologically confirmed BCC were 2787 per 100,000 person-years at risk (pyar) among men and 1567 per 100,000 pyar among women, and corresponding tumor rates were 5821 per 100,000 pyar and 2733 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates for men with new SCC were 944 per 100,000 pyar and for women 675 per 100,000 pyar; tumor rates were 1754 per 100,000 pyar and 846 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates of BCC tumors but not SCC tumors varied noticeably according to method of surveillance, with BCC incidence rates based on skin examination surveys around three times higher than background treatment rates. This was mostly due to an increase in diagnosis of new BCC on sites other than the head and neck, arms, and hands associated with skin examination surveys and little to do with advancing the time of diagnosis of BCC on these sites as seen by a return to background rates following the examination surveys. We conclude that BCC that might otherwise go unreported are detected during skin examination surveys and thus that such skin cancer screening can influence the apparent burden of skin cancer.

Incidence of Stagonospora meliloti and Acrocalymma medicaginis in Lucerne crowns and roots in eastern Australia, and their comparative aggressiveness to Lucerne and inheritance of reaction to S. meliloti in lucerne

The research presented indicates that lucerne crown and root rot caused by Stagonospora meliloti is prevalent in southern New South Wales, whereas Acrocalymma medicaginis is the more commonly observed pathogen in Queensland. Although both pathogens cause reddening of internal root and crown tissue of lucerne, they can be distinguished by symptomatology. S. meliloti causes a diffuse red blotching of the internal tissue accompanied by the presence of an external lesion, whereas A. medicaginis causes red streaking at the extremity of wedge-shaped, dry-rotted tissue. Inoculation of propagules of a susceptible lucerne clone indicated that S. meliloti was the more aggressive pathogen. Although A. medicaginis does not cause leaf disease, there was a strong relationship between the leaf and root reaction of clones to S. meliloti. Inheritance of resistance to S. meliloti in lucerne appeared to be conditioned by a single dominant gene, based on segregations observed in S-1 and F-1 populations, but not in a backcross population from the same family where an excess of susceptible individuals (74% v. expected of 50%) was obtained in a cross of a resistant F-1 individual to the susceptible parent. Resistance appears to be highly heritable, however, and amenable to population improvement by breeding. A conclusion of the research is that breeding for resistance to S. meliloti for lucernes to be grown in southern Australia would appear to be a worthwhile objective. Presently, no highly resistant cultivars exist anywhere in the world.

HFE genotyping demonstrates a significant incidence of hemochromatosis in up differentiated arthritis

Objective Hereditary hemochromatosis is a common autosomal recessive disorder of iron metabolism. Among Northern Europeans the carrier frequency is estimated to be I in 10, while up to 1 in 200 is affected by the disease. Arthropathy is one early clinical manifestation of this disease, but the articular features are often misdiagnosed. In this study the two frequent mutations of the HLA-linked hemochromatosis gene (HFE) were investigated, in a rheumatology clinic population. Methods Two hundred and six consecutive patients (mean age 57.7 years; 38 male/168 female) attending a rheumatology clinic over a period of 14 months were screened for HFE mutations (C282Y and H63D). All standard diagnostic procedures were used to identify the aetiology: of the arthropathy. Mutations were evaluated by separation on PAGE of digested PCR amplificates of DNA (by SnapI and Bcl-I, for C282Y and H63D, respectively) obtained from PBMCs. Results The C282Y and H63D allele frequencies were 4.5 and 12.8 inpatients with rheumatic diseases. Five patients were homozygote for H63D (2.4%), and one,for C282Y (0.5%). Five patients were compound heterozygous (2.4%). The observed C282Y allele frequency in rheumatic patients with undifferentiated arthritis was 12.9 and exceeded that of healthy subjects (p = 0.01). Conclusions Determination of the HFE genotype is clinically useful in patients with arthritis of unknown origin, to allow early diagnosis of hemochromatosis.

Incidence and risk factors associated with exertional rhabdomyolysis syndrome in National Hunt racehorses in Great Britain

A telephone survey of 51 National Hunt racing yards with 1140 horses in training was made in April and May 2003 to establish the incidence of exertional rhabdomyolysis syndrome during the previous year. A case-control study was used to investigate the risk factors for the syndrome in eight yards selected on the basis that cases had been confirmed by the analysis of serum muscle enzymes. The overall incidence of syndrome was 6 center dot 1 cases per 100 horses per year, and 55 per cent of the yards reported at least one case. The risk factors identified were sex, the average length of the training gallop, and the type of horse (steeplechaser, bumper/unraced or hurdler). There were no significant associations with the horses' temperament, age or Timeform rating.