Diagnostic goal driven modelling and simulation of multiscale process systems

A systematic goal-driven top-down modelling methodology is proposed that is capable of developing a multiscale model of a process system for given diagnostic purposes. The diagnostic goal-set and the symptoms are extracted from HAZOP analysis results, where the possible actions to be performed in a fault situation are also described. The multiscale dynamic model is realized in the form of a hierarchical coloured Petri net by using a novel substitution place-transition pair. Multiscale simulation that focuses automatically on the fault areas is used to predict the effect of the proposed preventive actions. The notions and procedures are illustrated on some simple case studies including a heat exchanger network and a more complex wet granulation process.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

The impact of staff empowerment and communication style on customer evaluations: The special case of service failure

Empowering front-line staff to deal with service failures has been proposed as a method of recovering from service breakdown and ensuring greater customer satisfaction. However, no empirical study has investigated consumer responses to empowerment strategies. This research investigates the effect on customer satisfaction and service quality of two employee characteristics: the degree to which the employee is empowered (full, limited, and none), and the employee's communication style (accommodative - informal and personal, and underaccommodative-formal and impersonal). These employee characteristics are studied within the context of service failures. Subjects were shown videotaped service scenarios, and asked to complete satisfaction and service quality ratings. Results revealed that the fully empowered employee produced more customer satisfaction than the other conditions, but only when the service provider used an accommodating style of communication. Fully empowered and nonempowered employees were not judged differently when an underaccommodating style of communication was adopted. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Study of n-fold Weibull competing risk model

This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic effects on alcohol dependence risk: re-evaluating the importance of psychiatric and other heritable risk factors

Background. Genetic influences have been shown to play a major role in determining the risk of alcohol dependence (AD) in both women and men; however, little attention has been directed to identifying the major sources of genetic variation in AD risk. Method. Diagnostic telephone interview data from young adult Australian twin pairs born between 1964 and 1971 were analyzed. Cox regression models were fitted to interview data from a total of 2708 complete twin pairs (690 MZ female, 485 MZ male, 500 DZ female, 384 DZ male, and 649 DZ female/male pairs). Structural equation models were fitted to determine the extent of residual genetic and environmental influences on AD risk while controlling for effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors on risk. Results. Risk of AD was increased in males, in Roman Catholics, in those reporting a history of major depression, social anxiety problems, and conduct disorder, or (in females only) a history of suicide attempt and childhood sexual abuse; but was decreased in those reporting Baptist, Methodist, or Orthodox religion, in those who reported weekly church attendance, and in university-educated males. After allowing for the effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors, 47 % (95 % CI 28-55) of the residual variance in alcoholism risk was attributable to additive genetic effects, 0 % (95 % CI 0-14) to shared environmental factors, and 53 % (95 % CI 45-63) to non-shared environmental influences. Conclusions. Controlling for other risk factors, substantial residual heritability of AD was observed, suggesting that psychiatric and other risk factors play a minor role in the inheritance of AD.

Analysis of service stress corrosion cracking in a natural gas transmission pipeline, active or dormant?

Stress corrosion cracks (SCC) had been found in a natural gas transmission pipeline during a dig-up and inspection program. The question was raised as to whether the SCC was active or dormant. This paper describes the resultant investigation to determine if a particular service crack was actively growing. The strategy adopted was to assess the appearance of the fracture surface of the service crack and to compare with expectations from laboratory specimens with active SCC. The conclusions from this study are as follows. To judge whether a crack in the service pipe is active or dormant, it is reasonable to compare the very crack tip of the service crack and a fresh crack in a laboratory sample. If the crack tip of the active laboratory sample is similar to that of the service pipe, it means the crack in the service pipe is likely to be active. From the comparison of the crack tip between the service pipe and the laboratory samples, it appears likely that the cracks in the samples extracted from service were most likely to have been active intergranular stress corrosion cracks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.