Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

Predictive vaccinology: Optimisation of predictions using support vector machine classifiers

Promiscuous human leukocyte antigen (HLA) binding peptides are ideal targets for vaccine development. Existing computational models for prediction of promiscuous peptides used hidden Markov models and artificial neural networks as prediction algorithms. We report a system based on support vector machines that outperforms previously published methods. Preliminary testing showed that it can predict peptides binding to HLA-A2 and -A3 super-type molecules with excellent accuracy, even for molecules where no binding data are currently available.

Molecular systematics of the Philippine malaria vector Anopheles flavirostris

Allozyme and molecular sequence data from the malaria vector Anopheles flavirostris (Ludlow) (Diptera: Culicidae) were analysed from 34 sites throughout the Philippines, including the type locality, to test the hypothesis that this taxon is a single panmictic species. A finer-scaled allozyme study, of mainly Luzon samples, revealed no fixed genetic differences in sympatric sites and only low levels of variation. We obtained data from partial sequences for the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) (483 bp), the third domain (D3) (330 bp) of the 28S ribosomal DNA subunit and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) of mitochondrial DNA (261 bp). No sequence variation was observed for ITS2, only a one base pair difference was observed between Philippine and Indonesian D3 sequences and An. flavirostris sequences were unique, confirming their diagnostic value for this taxon. Sixteen COI haplotypes were identified, giving 25 parsimony informative sites. Neighbour-Joining, Maximum Parsimony, Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of COI sequences for An. flavirostris and outgroup taxa revealed strong branch support for the monophyly of An. flavirostris, thus confirming that Philippine populations of this taxon comprise a single separate species within the Minimus Subgroup of the Funestus Group. Variation in the behaviour of An. flavirostris is likely to be intraspecific rather than interspecific in origin. © 2006 The Royal Entomological Society.