Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

The effect of St John's wort extracts on CYP3A: a systematic review of prospective clinical trials

Aim The aim of this systematic review was to assess the quality and outcomes of clinical trials investigating the effect of St John's wort extracts on the metabolism of drugs by CYP3A. Methods Prospective clinical trials assessing the effect of St John's wort (SJW) extracts on metabolism by CYP3A were identified through computer-based searches (from their inception to May 2005) of Medline, Cinahl, PsycINFO, AMED, Current Contents and Embase, hand-searches of bibliographies of relevant papers and consultation with manufacturers and researchers in the field. Two reviewers selected trials for inclusion, independently extracted data and recorded details on study design. Results Thirty-one studies met the eligibility criteria. More than two-thirds of the studies employed a before-and-after design, less than one-third of the studies used a crossover design, and only three studies were double-blind and placebo controlled. In 12 studies the SJW extract had been assayed, and 14 studies stated the specific SJW extract used. Results from 26 studies, including all of the 19 studies that used high-dose hyperforin extracts (> 10 mg day(-1)), had outcomes consistent with CYP3A induction. The three studies using low-dose hyperforin extracts (< 4 mg day(-1)) demonstrated no significant effect on CYP3A. Conclusion There is reasonable evidence to suggest that high-dose hyperforin SJW extracts induce CYP3A. More studies are required to determine whether decreased CYP3A induction occurs after low-dose hyperforin extracts. Future studies should adopt study designs with a control phase or control group, identify the specific SJW extract employed and provide quantitative analyses of key constituents.