Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathways to human experimentation, 1933-1945: Germany, Japan and the United States

The history of human experimentation in the twelve years between Hitler's rise to power and the end of the Second World War is notorious in the annals of the twen- tieth century. The horrific experiments conducted at Dachau, Auschwitz, Ravens- brueck, Birkenau, and other National Socialist concentration camps reflected an extreme indifference to human life and human suffering. Unfortunately, they do not reflect the extent and complexity of the human experiments undertaken in the years between 1933 and 1945. Following the prosecution of twenty-three high-ranking National Socialist physicians and medical administrators for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Nuremberg Medical Trial (United States v. Karl Brandt et al.), scholars have rightly focused attention on the nightmarish researches con- ducted by a small group of investigators on concentration camp inmates. Less well known are alternative pathways that brought investigators to undertake human ex- perimentation in other laboratories, settings, and nations.

Whither the responsibility to protect? Humanitarian intervention and the 2005 World Summit

At the 2005 World Summit, the world's leaders committed themselves to the "responsibility to protect", recognizing both that all states have a responsibility to protect their citizens from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity and that the UN should help states to discharge this responsibility using either peaceful means or enforcement action. This declaration ostensibly marks an important milestone in the relationship between sovereignty and human rights but its critics argue that it will make little difference in practice to the world's most threatened people. The purpose of this article is to ask how consensus was reached on the responsibility to protect, given continuing hostility to humanitarian intervention expressed by many (if not most) of the world's states and whether the consensus will contribute to avoiding future Kosovos (cases where the Security Council is deadlocked in the face of a humanitarian crises) and future Rwandas (cases where states lack the political will to intervene). It suggests that four key factors contributed to the consensus: pressure from proponents of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty, its adoption by Kofi Annan and the UN's High Level Panel, an emerging consensus in the African Union, and the American position. Whilst these four factors contributed to consensus, each altered the meaning of the responsibility to protect in important ways, creating a doctrine that many states can sign up to but that does little to prevent future Kosovos and Rwandas and may actually inhibit attempts to build a consensus around intervention in future cases.

Sustainable design practitioners: Why they must be at the centre of discussions on sustainable design education

Sustainable design education is vital for engineering students. This is to allow them to meet the challenges both engineering and the wider community will face in the future. This need has not only been mandated by Engineers Australia’s graduate attributes from an Australian perspective, but more widely the issue of sustainability is one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced. Engineers need to be at the forefront of this challenge, because we can not only do the greatest good, but have the potential to cause the greatest harm. The biggest question with respect to the education of engineers about sustainable design is what do engineers need to know, and how best to enable this learning. This paper argues that since the entire phenomenon of sustainable design is constantly growing and changing, it is only by looking at practitioners currently trying design sustainably, and their ways of experiencing sustainable design, can we hope to articulate what it is, and therefore what and how we need to teach engineering students. It also argues that to accommodate sustainable design within engineering, we need to go further and transform the engineering profession to enable it to meet the challenges that sustainability presents. © 2005, Australasian Association for Engineering Education