14 resultados para Historic demography

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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In this study we examined three aspects pertaining to adrenocortical responsiveness in free-ranging Australian freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni). First, we examined the ability of freshwater crocodiles to produce corticosterone in response to a typical capture-stress protocol. A second objective addressed the relationship between capture stress, plasma glucose and corticosterone. Next we examined if variation in basal and capture-stress-induced levels of plasma corticosterone was linked to ecological or demographic factors for individuals in this free-ranging population. Blood samples obtained on three field trips were taken from a cross-sectional sample of the population. Crocodiles were bled once during four time categories at 0, 0. 5, 6, and 10 h post-capture. Plasma corticosterone increased significantly with time post-capture. Plasma glucose also significantly increased with duration of capture-stress and exhibited a positive and significant relationship with plasma corticosterone. Significant variation in basal or stress induced levels of corticosterone in crocodiles was not associated with any ecological or demographic factors including sex, age class or the year of capture that the crocodiles were sampled from. However, three immature males had basal levels of plasma corticosterone greater than 2 standard deviations above the mean. While crocodiles exhibited a pronounced, adrenocortical and hyperglycaemic response to capture stress, limited variation in adrenocortical responsiveness due to ecological and demographic factors was not evident. This feature could arise in part because this population was sampled during a period of environmental benigness. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

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We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

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