Challenges and approaches to estimating mortality attributable to the use of selected illicit drugs

A number of unique challenges are faced when attempting to estimate mortality attributable to illicit drugs. The hidden nature of illicit drug use creates difficulties in quantifying the prevalence of such use; identifying adverse health effects associated with exposure, and calculating the risk of these effects. The use of cohort studies of drug users allows the identification of causes of mortality associated with drug use and the determination of the risk of these causes. This risk estimate can then be used in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence of drug use to, extrapolate the burden of mortality. We identify a number of such studies and present some solutions to the major challenges faced when attempting to estimate the global burden of mortality attributable to illicit drug use. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is naltrexone a cure for heroin dependence? [Editorial]

No Abstract

Heroin overdose: causes and consequences

Over the past decade fatal opioid overdose has emerged as a major public health issue internationally. This paper examines the risk factors for overdose from a biomedical perspective. while significant risk factors for opioid overdose fatality are well recognized, the mechanism of fatal overdose remains unclear. Losses of tolerance and concomitant use of alcohol and other CNS depressants clearly play a major role in fatality; howeve, such risk factors do not account for the strong age and gender patterns observed consistently among victims of overdose. There is evidence that systemic disease may be more prevalent in users at greatest risk of overdose. We hypothesize that pulmonary and hepatic dysfunction resulting from such disease may increase susceptibility to both fatal and non-fatal overdose. Sequelae of non-fatal overdose are recognized in the clinical literature but few epidemiological data exist describing the burden of morbidity arising from such sequelae. The potential for overdose to cause persisting morbidity is reviewed.

Hair morphine concentrations of fatal heroin overdose cases and living heroin users

Aims To compare heroin and other opiate use of heroin overdose fatalities, current street heroin users and drug-free therapeutic community clients. Design Hair morphine concentrations that assess heroin use and other opiate use in the 2 months preceding interview or death were compared between heroin overdose fatalities diagnosed by forensic pathologists (fOD) (n = 42), current street heroin users (CU) (n = 100) and presumably abstinent heroin users in a drug-free therapeutic community (TC) (n = 50). Setting Sydney, Australia. Findings The mean age and gender breakdown of the three samples were 32.3 years, 83% male (FOD), 28.7 years, 58% male (CU) and 28.6 years, 60% male (TC). The median blood morphine concentration among the FOD cases was 0.35 mg/l, and 82% also had other drugs detected. There were large differences between the three groups in hair morphine concentrations, with the CU group (2.10 ng/mg) having concentration approximately four times that of the FOD group (0.53 ng/mg), which in turn had a concentration approximately six times that of the TC group (0.09 ng/mg). There were no significant differences between males and females in hair concentrations within any of the groups. Hair morphine concentrations were correlated significantly with blood morphine concentrations among FOD cases (r = 0.54), and self-reported heroin use among living participants (r = 0.57). Conclusions The results indicate that fatal cases had a lower degree of chronic opiate intake than the active street users, but they were not abstinent during this period.

The distribution of naloxone to heroin users

Overdose deaths are a manor contributor to excess mortality among heroin users. It has been proposed that opioid overdose morbidity and mortality could be reduced substantially by distributing the opioid antagonist naloxone to heroin users. The ethical issues raised by this proposal are evaluated from a utilitarian perspective. The potential advantages of naloxone distribution include the increased chance of comatose opioid users being quickly resuscitated by others present at the time of an overdose, naloxone's safety and its lack of abuse potential. The main problems raised by the proposal are: the medico-legal complications of medical practitioners prescribing a drug that is most likely to be administered to and by people other than the one for whom it is prescribed; the economic costs of distributing naloxone sufficiently widely to have an impact on overdose morbidity and mortality; and the potentially greater cost-effectiveness of simpler educational interventions. Given the possible benefits of naloxone distribution, it may be worthwhile considering a controlled trial of naloxone distribution to high-risk heroin users.

Heroin overdose: Research and evidence-based intervention

Drug overdose is a major cause of Premature death and morbidity among heroin users. This article examines recent research into heroin overdose to inform interventions that will reduce the rate of overdose death. The demographic characteristics of overdose cases are discussed, including factors associated with overdose: polydrug use, drug purity, drug tolerance, routes of administration, and suicide. Responses by heroin users at overdoses are also examined. Potential interventions to reduce the rate of overdose and overdose-related morbidity are examined in light of the emerging data in this field.

The Swiss heroin trials: testing alternative approaches

Over half a million heroin misusers receive oral methadone maintenance treatment world-wide1 but the maintenance prescription of injectable opioid drugs, like heroin, remains controversial. In 1992 Switzerland began a large scale evaluation of heroin and other injectable opiate prescribing that eventually involved 1035 misusers. 2 3 The results of the evaluation have recently been reported.4 These show that it was feasible to provide heroin by intravenous injection at a clinic, up to three times a day, for seven days a week. This was done while maintaining good drug control, good order, client safety, and staff morale. Patients were stabilised on 500 to 600 mg heroin daily without evidence of increasing tolerance. Retention in treatment was 89% at six months and 69% at 18 months.4 The self reported use of non-prescribed heroin fell signifianctly, but other drug use was minimally affected. The death rate was 1% per year, and there were no deaths from overdose among participants . . . [Full text of this article]

Methadone maintenance treatment reduces heroin injection in New South Wales prisons

The purpose of this study was to examine whether methadone maintenance treatment reduces injecting risk behaviour land therefore transmission of blood-borne viral infections) among prisoners in New South Wales (NSW), using comparison of retrospective reports of drug use in prisons for people who received standard drug treatment, time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment, The setting for the study was the NSW prison system. One hundred and eighty-five injecting drug users who had been recently released from NSW prisons were recruited in 1993, Self-reported drug use and injecting risk behaviour were compared in inmates who received standard drug treatment (counselling), time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment. HIV status was determined by serology, Intervention comprised high and low dose methadone treatment and counselling. The groups were similar in terms of most basic demographic characteristics but subjects who had been maintained on methadone reported a significantly lower prevalence of heroin injection, syringe sharing and scored lower on an HIV Risk-taking Behavioural Scale than subjects who received standard drug treatment and time-limited methadone treatment, This study suggests that methadone treatment is associated with reduced injecting risk behaviour in prison with adequate (greater than 60 mg) dose and duration in treatment. These treatment conditions are known to increase effectiveness in community-based methadone programmes. Prospective studies are required to evaluate the effectiveness of methadone programmes in the prevention of HIV and other blood-borne viral infections among IDU prisoners.

Cohort trends in age of initiation to heroin use

This paper examines gender differences and trends over time in the age of initiation to heroin use. Data from two large surveys: the Sydney component of the ANAIDUS, conducted in 1989, and the ASHIDU, conducted in 1994, were used to examine this issue. Together, these studies contained information on 1,292 individuals who identified themselves as heroin users. Results indicated that, while there were no significant gender differences in age of initiation to heroin use, there was a significant (p < 0.001) time trend in the mean age at which heroin was first used. Specifically, the mean age of first heroin use among individuals born during the interval 1940-1949 was 20.5 years while among those born during 1970-1979 the mean age of first heroin use was 16.5 years. These findings were confirmed by analyses of the National Household Survey. Further analysis of the ASHIDU data indicated that younger age of initiation to heroin use was associated with polydrug use, overdose and crime after the effects of duration of heroin use had been statistically controlled. These findings suggest that there has been both an increase in the willingness of young people to experiment with heroin and an increased availability of the drug over this time. In combination with evidence that there has been an increase in the amount of heroin being imported into Australia, and an increased demand for treatment for opiate dependence, these data suggest that Australia is experiencing an increase in the use of heroin, particularly among youth.

Jurisdictional trends in opioid overdose deaths, 1988-96

This report analysed data on opioid overdose mortality between 1988 and 1996 to: examine differences between jurisdictions in the rate of fatal opioid overdose and the rate of increase in overdose; and estimate the proportion of all deaths which were attributed to opioid overdose. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data were obtained on the number of deaths attributed to opioid dependence (ICD 9 codes 304.0, 304.7) and accidental opioid poisoning (ICD 9 codes E850.0, E850.1). The highest rate of fatal overdose occurred in NSW, followed by Victoria. The standardised mortality rate among other jurisdictions fluctuated quite markedly. While the rate of opioid overdose has increased throughout Australia, the rate of increase has been greater in some of the less-populous states and territories than it has in NSW or Victoria. In 1996, approximately 6.5% of all deaths among people aged 15-24 years and approximately 10% of all deaths among those aged 25-34 were due to opioid overdose. During the interval from 1988 to 1996, the proportion of deaths attributed to opioid overdose increased. From 1988 to 1996, the proportion of deaths attributed to opioid overdose among individuals aged 25-34 years was approximately one-third that attributed to suicide, but this proportion had increased to approximately one-half by 1996. The rate of increase in the proportion of deaths attributed to opioid overdose was higher than the rate of increase in the proportion of deaths attributed to suicide.