Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Effects of habitat modification in mangroves on the structure of mollusc and crab assemblages

The abundance and species richness of mollusc and crab assemblages were examined in a subtropical mangrove forest in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, which has been disturbed and damaged by the construction of a wooden boardwalk and a path. Sections of the forest immediately adjacent to the boardwalk and path were compared with reference areas to determine whether changes to the small-scale structural complexity within the forest affected the benthic fauna. The disturbed area was characterised by having 65-80% fewer pneumatophores, significantly fewer species and individuals of molluscs, but significantly more species and individuals of crabs than the reference areas. The abundance of mangrove pneumatophores and the attached epiphytic algae were manipulated at two sites to determine whether observed differences in these features could account for the differences in the assemblage of molluscs in the disturbed area of the forest compared with reference areas. Five experimental treatments were used: undisturbed controls, pneumatophore removals (abundance reduced by ca. 65%), epiphytic algal removals (algae removed from ca. 65% of pneumatophores), pneumatophore disturbance controls and algal disturbance controls. The experimental reduction of the abundance of mangrove pneumatophores and the associated epiphytic algae led to significant declines (by as much as 83%) in the number of molluscs utilising the substratum in the modified plots. There was no significant difference in the abundance of molluscs in the pneumatophore and algal removal plots suggesting any effect was primarily related to removal of the epiphytic algae from the surface of the pneumatophores. The responses by the biota to the changes in the physical environment demonstrate that even relatively small-scale modifications to the physical structure of subtropical mangrove forests can lead to significant effects on the diversity and abundance of macrobenthic organisms in these habitats. Such modifications have the potential to cause cascading effects at higher trophic levels with a deterioration in the value of these habitats as nursery and feeding grounds. Future efforts at conservation of these estuarine environments must focus on the prevention or reduction of modifications to the physical structure and integrity of the system, rather than just on the prevention of loss of entire patches of habitat. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of habitat characteristics and climate on the distribution and colouration of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) in south-east Queensland

We determined which factors predict the presence and abundance of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) at wetlands by surveying the ecological and habitat characteristics of 62 sites across south-east Queensland. Moorhens were observed in 48 of the sites sampled. They were more likely to be found at sites surrounded by taller terrestrial vegetation and where free-floating and attached aquatic vegetation was more abundant. The number of moorhens found at a site increased in relation to vegetation height, the abundance of attached aquatic vegetation and the number of purple swamphens observed. These results suggest that there are ecological constraints on the distribution of moorhens, and that food abundance and the availability of suitable nesting sites determine the overall distribution and abundance of moorhens in wetlands. Adult moorhens develop brightly coloured fleshy frontal shields, bills and legs when breeding, although in some populations birds maintain year-round colouration. We observed year-round breeding colouration in 23 out of 34 sampling sites that had moorhens and were surveyed in August. Coloured moorhens were found during winter at sites with higher minimum winter temperatures, and more abundant free-floating and submerged leafy vegetation. In addition, higher proportions of moorhens were coloured at sites with higher mean minimum temperatures. The retention of year-round breeding colouration appears to be restricted to areas with warmer winter temperatures and more abundant food. The results suggest that areas not occupied by moorhens are of inadequate quality to support breeding populations. We suggest that ecological constraints on independent breeding in Dusky Moorhens may have favoured the evolution of their unusual cooperative breeding system, which involves frequent mate-sharing by both sexes.

Genetic effects of chronic habitat fragmentation on tree species: the case of Sorbus aucuparia in a deforested Scottish landscape

Sustainable forest restoration and management practices require a thorough understanding of the influence that habitat fragmentation has on the processes shaping genetic variation and its distribution in tree populations. We quantified genetic variation at isozyme markers and chloroplast DNA (cpDNA), analysed by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) in severely fragmented populations of Sorbus aucuparia (Rosaceae) in a single catchment (Moffat) in southern Scotland. Remnants maintain surprisingly high levels of gene diversity (H-E) for isozymes (H-E = 0.195) and cpDNA markers (H-E = 0.490). Estimates are very similar to those from non-fragmented populations in continental Europe, even though the latter were sampled over a much larger spatial scale. Overall, no genetic bottleneck or departures from random mating were detected in the Moffat fragments. However, genetic differentiation among remnants was detected for both types of marker (isozymes Theta(n) = 0.043, cpDNA Theta(c) = 0.131; G-test, P-value < 0.001). In this self-incompatible, insect-pollinated, bird-dispersed tree species, the estimated ratio of pollen flow to seed flow between fragments is close to 1 (r = 1.36). Reduced pollen-mediated gene flow is a likely consequence of habitat fragmentation, but effective seed dispersal by birds is probably helping to maintain high levels of genetic diversity within remnants and reduce genetic differentiation between them.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of settler size and density on early post-settlement survival of Ciona intestinalis in the field

Effects of variation in larval quality on post-metamorphic performance in marine invertebrates are increasingly apparent. Recently, it has been shown that variation in offspring size can also strongly affect post-settlement survival, but variation in environmental conditions can mediate this effect. The quality of habitat into which marine invertebrate larvae settle can vary markedly, and 1 influence on quality is the number of conspecifics present. We tested the effects of settler size and settler density on early (1 wk after settlement) post-settlement survival in the field for the solitary ascidian Ciona intestinalis. Larger settlers survived better than smaller settlers, within and among groups of siblings. Increases in the density of settlers decreased survival, but the density-dependent effects were much stronger for smaller settlers. We suggest that larger settlers are better able to cope with intra-specific competition because they have greater energetic reserves or a greater capacity to feed than smaller settlers.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Geographical variation in offspring size effects across generations

Offspring size is thought to strongly affect offspring fitness and many studies have shown strong offspring size/fitness relationships in marine and terrestrial organisms. This relationship is strongly mitigated by local environmental conditions and the optimal offspring size that mothers should produce will vary among different environments. It is assumed that offspring size will consistently affect the same traits among populations but this assumption has not been tested. Here I use a common garden experiment to examine the effects of offspring size on subsequent performance for the marine bryozoan Bugula neritina using larvae from two very different populations. The local conditions at one population (Williamstown) favour early reproduction whereas the other population (Pt. Wilson) favours early growth. Despite being placed in the same habitat, the effects of parental larval size were extremely variable and crossed generations. For larvae from Williamstown, parental larval size positively affected initial colony growth and larval size in the next generation. For larvae from the other population, parental larval size positively affected colony fecundity and negatively affected larval size in the next generation. Traditionally, exogenous factors have been viewed as the sole source of variation in offspring size/fitness relationship but these results show that endogenous factors (maternal source population) can also cause variation in this crucial relationship. It appears offspring size effects can be highly variable among populations and organisms can adapt to local conditions without changing the size of their offspring.

Disease, habitat fragmentation and conservation

Habitat loss and the resultant fragmentation of remaining habitat is the primary cause of loss of biological diversity. How do these processes affect the dynamics of parasites and pathogens? Hess has provided some important insights into this problem using metapopulation models for pathogens that exhibit 'S-I' dynamics; for example, pathogens such as rabies in which the host population may be divided into susceptible and infected individuals. A major assumption of Hess's models is that infected patches become extinct, rather than recovering and becoming resistant to future infections. In this paper, we build upon this framework in two different ways: first, we examine the consequences of including patches that are resistant to infection; second, we examine the consequences of including a second species of host that can act as a reservoir for the pathogen. Both of these effects are likely to be important from a conservation perspective. The results of both sets of analysis indicate that the benefits of corridors and other connections that allow species to disperse through the landscape far outweigh the possible risks of increased pathogen transmission. Even in the commonest case, where harmful pathogens are maintained by a common reservoir host, increased landscape connectance still allows greater coexistence and persistence of a threatened or endangered host.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Habitat choice and vigilance behaviour of brush-tailed rock-wallabies (Petrogale penicillata) within their nocturnal foraging ranges

Habitat choice by brush-tailed rock-wallabies (Petrogale penicillata) in south-east Queensland was investigated by comparing the attributes of the nocturnal foraging locations that they selected with those of random locations within a radius of 50 m. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were shown to select foraging locations on the basis of forage quality and/or their ability to see predators, rather than protection from predators amongst vegetation that could conceal them. Habitat choice may have been affected by limited food availability, as this study was conducted in the winter dry season. The attributes of foraging locations that brush- tailed rock-wallabies perceived as increasing their predation risk were assessed by recording the proportion of time that brush- tailed rock-wallabies spent vigilant while foraging. To measure vigilance, focal animals were observed with a night- vision scope for two minutes and the proportions of time spent vigilant and feeding were recorded. No measured feature of foraging locations was related to higher vigilance levels, suggesting that brush- tailed rock-wallabies did not alter their vigilance whether sheltered amongst grass tussocks or in open habitat, or whether feeding on good quality or poorer quality vegetation. Vigilance levels significantly declined as overnight temperatures decreased, which may have resulted from higher energy requirements of brush- tailed rock-wallabies during winter. The only factors that were found to significantly increase vigilance levels were high winds and moonlit nights. On bright nights, brush- tailed rock-wallabies were very unsettled and during high winds they often did not emerge to feed. More information is needed about how macropods detect predators at night before the effects of wind and light intensity upon vigilance can be fully understood.

Limited effect of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on molecular diversity in a rain forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae

To examine the effects of recent habitat fragmentation, we assayed genetic diversity in a rain forest endemic lizard, the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), from seven forest fragments and five sites in continuous forest on the Atherton tableland of northeastern Queensland, Australia. The rain forest in this region was fragmented by logging and clearing for dairy farms in the early 1900s and most forest fragments studied have been isolated for 50-80 years or nine to 12 skink generations. We genotyped 411 individuals at nine microsatellite DNA loci and found fewer alleles per locus in prickly forest skinks from small rain forest fragments and a lower ratio of allele number to allele size range in forest fragments than in continuous forest, indicative of a decrease in effective population size. In contrast, and as expected for populations with small neighbourhood sizes, neither heterozygosity nor variance in allele size differed between fragments and sites in continuous forests. Considering measures of among population differentiation, there was no increase in F-ST among fragments and a significant isolation by distance pattern was identified across all 12 sites. However, the relationship between genetic (F-ST) and geographical distance was significantly stronger for continuous forest sites than for fragments, consistent with disruption of gene flow among the latter. The observed changes in genetic diversity within and among populations are small, but in the direction predicted by the theory of genetic erosion in recently fragmented populations. The results also illustrate the inherent difficulty in detecting genetic consequences of recent habitat fragmentation, even in genetically variable species, and especially when effective population size and dispersal rates are low.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decreased relatedness between male prickly forest skinks (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) in habitat fragments

In species with low levels of dispersal the chance of closely related individuals breeding may be a potential problem; sex-biased dispersal is a mechanism that may decrease the possibility of cosanguineous mating. Fragmentation of the habitat in which a species lives may affect mechanisms such as sex-biased dispersal, which may in turn exacerbate more direct effects of fragmentation such as decreasing population size that may lead to inbreeding depression. Relatedness statistics calculated using microsatellite DNA data showed that rainforest fragmentation has had an effect on the patterns of dispersal in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), a rainforest endemic of the Wet Tropics of north eastern Australia. A lower level of relatedness was found in fragments compared to continuous forest sites due to a significantly lower level of pairwise relatedness between males in rainforest fragments. The pattern of genetic relatedness between sexes indicates the presence of male-biased dispersal in this species, with a stronger pattern detected in populations in rainforest fragments. Male prickly forest skinks may have to move further in fragmented habitat in order to find mates or suitable habitat logs.

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.