Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Sea surface temperature variations recorded on coralline Sr/Ca ratios during Mid-Late Holocene in Leizhou Peninsula

High-resolution Sr/Ca ratios of two Porites corals from Leizhou Peninsula were measured using inductively coupled plasma atomic spectrometry (ICP-AES). TIMS U-Th dating reveals that the life-spans of the two corals are 489500 AD and 539-530 BC, respectively. Monthly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during these two periods can be reconstructed from their skeletal Sr/Ca ratios. The results reveal that SSTs during 539-530 BC were roughly the same as those during 1990-2000 AD in this area, indicating a relative warm climate period. However, the period of 489-500 AD was significantly cooler, with annual mean SST, the 10-a average of minimum monthly winter SSTs and the 10-a average of maximum monthly summer SSTs being about 2, 2.9 and 1degreesC lower than that in the 1990s, respectively. Such climate patterns agree well with the phenological results recorded in the historic documents in other areas of China.

Application of a coupled ground-surface water flow model to simulate periodic groundwater flow influenced by a sloping boundary, capillarity and vertical flows

Theoretical developments as well as field and laboratory data have shown the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations to increase with the fluctuation frequency. The numerical solution of a full, partially saturated flow equation can be computationally expensive. In this paper, the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations is simplified through its parameterisation into the storage coefficient of a fully-saturated groundwater flow model using the complex effective porosity concept [Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. Water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling. Advances in Water Resources 23 (1), 503-515; Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. ERRATA: water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling (Advances in Water Resources 23 (2000) 503-515). Advances in Water Resources 23, 907-908]. The model is applied to sand flume observations of periodic water table fluctuations induced by simple harmonic forcing across a sloping boundary, analogous to many beach groundwater systems. While not providing information on the moisture distribution within the aquifer, this approach can reasonably predict the water table fluctuations in response to periodic forcing across a sloping boundary. Furthermore, he coupled ground-surface water model accurately predicts the extent of the seepage face formed at the sloping boundary. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of temperature and salinity on Acacia harpophylla (brigalow) (Mimosaceae) germination

Acacia harpophylla F. Muell. (brigalow) used to naturally occur over a range of about 50 000 km(2) in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. Large scale clearing for agriculture has reduced the area to less than 20 000 km(2) and it is estimated that 20-25% of vertebrate fauna living in brigalow communities will become locally extinct as a result of the current clearing induced loss of habitat. Some coal mining companies in central Queensland have become interested in providing habitat for the endangered bridle nail-tailed wallaby that lives in brigalow vegetation. However, there is little known about establishment techniques for brigalow on mine sites and other disturbed ground; an understanding of brigalow biology and ecology is required to assist in the conservation of this threatened vegetation community and for re-creation of bridled nail-tail wallaby habitat in the post mining landscape. Brigalow is an unusual species of Acacia because it is not hard-seeded and germinates readily without the need to break seed-coat imposed dormancy. Germination trials were undertaken to test the ability of brigalow seed to germinate with a range of temperatures and salinity levels similar to those experienced in coal mine spoil. Optimum germination was found to occur at temperatures from 15 to 38 degrees C and no germination was recorded at 45 degrees C. Brigalow was very tolerant of high salt levels and germinated at percentages greater than 50% up to the highest salinity tested, 30 dS/m. Germination of greater than 90% occurred up to an electrical conductivity of 20 dS/m. The results indicate brigalow seed can be sown in summer when rains are most likely to occur, however, shading of the seed with extra soil or mulch may ensure the ground surface does not become too hot for germination. Because of its ability to germinate at high salinity levels, brigalow may be suitable for use in saline mine wastes which are common on sites to be rehabilitated after mining.

Gas-surface interactions in the thermal and sub-thermal regime: A molecular dynamics study

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to study the interaction of low-energy Ar atoms with the Ni(001) surface, Angular scattering distributions, in and out of the plane of incidence, are investigated as a function of incident energy, angles of incidence, crystallographic orientation of the incident beam and surface temperature. The results show a clear transition to the structure scattering regime at around 2 eV. However, at lower energies, two sub-regimes are revealed by the simulations, Far energies up to 250 meV, scattering is mainly diffuse, and significant trapping on the surface is observed, At energies above this level, lobular patterns start to form and trapping decreases with the increase in energy, Generally, there is a weak temperature dependence, but variations in the angle of incidence and/or changes in the crystallographic direction, generate significant changes in the scattering patterns.