Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

The second generation of the International Equine Gene Mapping Workshop half-sibling linkage map

A low-density, male-based linkage map was constructed as one of the objectives of the International Equine Gene Mapping Workshop. Here we report the second generation map based on testing 503 half-sibling offspring from 13 sire families for 344 informative markers using the crimap program. The multipoint linkage analysis localized 310 markers (90%) with 257 markers being linearly ordered. The map included 34 linkage groups representing all 31 autosomes and spanning 2262 cM with an average interval between loci of 10.1 cM. This map is a milestone in that it is the first map with linkage groups assigned to each of the 31 automosomes and a single linkage group to all but three chromosomes.

Method for generation of homogeneous multicellular tumor spheroids applicable to a wide variety of cell types

Multicellular tumor spheroids (MCTS) are used as organotypic models of normal and solid tumor tissue. Traditional techniques for generating MCTS, such as growth on nonadherent surfaces, in suspension, or on scaffolds, have a number of drawbacks, including the need for manual selection to achieve a homogeneous population and the use of nonphysiological matrix compounds. In this study we describe a mild method for the generation of MCTS, in which individual spheroids form in hanging drops suspended from a microtiter plate. The method has been successfully applied to a broad range of cell lines and shows nearly 100% efficiency (i.e., one spheroid per drop). Using the hepatoma cell line, HepG2, the hanging drop method generated well-rounded MCTS with a narrow size distribution (coefficient of variation [CV] 10% to 15%, compared with 40% to 60% for growth on nonadherent surfaces). Structural analysis of HepG2 and a mammary gland adenocarcinoma cell line, MCF-7, composed spheroids, revealed highly organized, three-dimensional, tissue-like structures with an extensive extracellular matrix. The hanging drop method represents an attractive alternative for MCTS production, because it is mild, can be applied to a wide variety of cell lines, and can produce spheroids of a homogeneous size without the need for sieving or manual selection. The method has applications for basic studies of physiology and metabolism, tumor biology, toxicology, cellular organization, and the development of bioartificial tissue. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Modern environmental improvement pathways for the coal power generation industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.

Measuring market power in electricity generation: A long-term perspective using a programming model

This paper focuses on measuring the extent to which market power has been exercised in a recently deregulated electricity generation sector. Our study emphasises the need to consider the concept of market power in a long-run dynamic context. A market power index is constructed focusing on differences between actual market returns and long-run competitive returns, estimated using a programming model devised by the authors. The market power implications of hedge contracts are briefly considered. The state of Queensland Australia is used as a context for the analysis. The results suggest that generators have exercised significant market power since deregulation.

Molecular analysis reveals tighter social regulation of immigration in patrilocal populations than in matrilocal populations

Human social organization can deeply affect levels of genetic diversity. This fact implies that genetic information can be used to study social structures, which is the basis of ethnogenetics. Recently, methods have been developed to extract this information from genetic data gathered from subdivided populations that have gone through recent spatial expansions, which is typical of most human populations. Here, we perform a Bayesian analysis of mitochondrial and Y chromosome diversity in three matrilocal and three patrilocal groups from northern Thailand to infer the number of males and females arriving in these populations each generation and to estimate the age of their range expansion. We find that the number of male immigrants is 8 times smaller in patrilocal populations than in matrilocal populations, whereas women move 2.5 times more in patrilocal populations than in matrilocal populations. In addition to providing genetic quantification of sex-specific dispersal rates in human populations, we show that although men and women are exchanged at a similar rate between matrilocal populations, there are far fewer men than women moving into patrilocal populations. This finding is compatible with the hypothesis that men are strictly controlling male immigration and promoting female immigration in patrilocal populations and that immigration is much less regulated in matrilocal populations.

Simple microcavity for single-photon generation

A new design of an optical resonator for generation of single-photon pulses is proposed. The resonator is made of a cylindrical or spherical piece of a polymer squeezed between two flat dielectric mirrors. The mode characteristics of this resonator are calculated numerically. The numerical analysis is backed by a physical explanation. The decay time and the mode volume of the fundamental mode are sufficient for achieving more than 96% probability of generating a single-photon in a single-mode. The corresponding requirement for the reflectivity of the mirrors (similar to 99.9%) and the losses in the polymer ( 100 dB/m) are quite modest. The resonator is suitable for single-photon generation based on optical pumping of a single quantum system such as an organic molecule, a diamond nanocrystal, or a semiconductor quantum dot if they are imbedded in the polymer. (C) 2005 Optical Society of America.

Power system sensitivity analysis for probabilistic small signal stability assessment in a deregulated environment

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.

An object-oriented designed finite-difference time-domain simulator for electromagnetic analysis and design in MRI - application to high field analyses

This paper presents a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulator for electromagnetic analysis and design applications in MRI. It is intended to be a complete FDTD model of an MRI system including all RF and low-frequency field generating units and electrical models of the patient. The pro-ram has been constructed in an object-oriented framework. The design procedure is detailed and the numerical solver has been verified against analytical solutions for simple cases and also applied to various field calculation problems. In particular, the simulator is demonstrated for inverse RF coil design, optimized source profile generation, and parallel imaging in high-frequency situations. The examples show new developments enabled by the simulator and demonstrate that the proposed FDTD framework can be used to analyze large-scale computational electromagnetic problems in modern MRI engineering. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using weak nonlinearity under decoherence for macroscopic entanglement generation and quantum computation

Recently, there have been several suggestions that weak Kerr nonlinearity can be used for generation of macroscopic superpositions and entanglement and for linear optics quantum computation. However, it is not immediately clear that this approach can overcome decoherence effects. Our numerical study shows that nonlinearity of weak strength could be useful for macroscopic entanglement generation and quantum gate operations in the presence of decoherence. We suggest specific values for real experiments based on our analysis. Our discussion shows that the generation of macroscopic entanglement using this approach is within the reach of current technology.

Analysis of transient eddy currents in MRI using a cylindrical FDTD method

Most magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) spatial encoding techniques employ low-frequency pulsed magnetic field gradients that undesirably induce multiexponentially decaying eddy currents in nearby conducting structures of the MRI system. The eddy currents degrade the switching performance of the gradient system, distort the MRI image, and introduce thermal loads in the cryostat vessel and superconducting MRI components. Heating of superconducting magnets due to induced eddy currents is particularly problematic as it offsets the superconducting operating point, which can cause a system quench. A numerical characterization of transient eddy current effects is vital for their compensation/control and further advancement of the MRI technology as a whole. However, transient eddy current calculations are particularly computationally intensive. In large-scale problems, such as gradient switching in MRI, conventional finite-element method (FEM)-based routines impose very large computational loads during generation/solving of the system equations. Therefore, other computational alternatives need to be explored. This paper outlines a three-dimensional finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method in cylindrical coordinates for the modeling of low-frequency transient eddy currents in MRI, as an extension to the recently proposed time-harmonic scheme. The weakly coupled Maxwell's equations are adapted to the low-frequency regime by downscaling the speed of light constant, which permits the use of larger FDTD time steps while maintaining the validity of the Courant-Friedrich-Levy stability condition. The principal hypothesis of this work is that the modified FDTD routine can be employed to analyze pulsed-gradient-induced, transient eddy currents in superconducting MRI system models. The hypothesis is supported through a verification of the numerical scheme on a canonical problem and by analyzing undesired temporal eddy current effects such as the B-0-shift caused by actively shielded symmetric/asymmetric transverse x-gradient head and unshielded z-gradient whole-body coils operating in proximity to a superconducting MRI magnet.