Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Novel Nonparametric Density Estimator

We present a novel nonparametric density estimator and a new data-driven bandwidth selection method with excellent properties. The approach is in- spired by the principles of the generalized cross entropy method. The pro- posed density estimation procedure has numerous advantages over the tra- ditional kernel density estimator methods. Firstly, for the first time in the nonparametric literature, the proposed estimator allows for a genuine incor- poration of prior information in the density estimation procedure. Secondly, the approach provides the first data-driven bandwidth selection method that is guaranteed to provide a unique bandwidth for any data. Lastly, simulation examples suggest the proposed approach outperforms the current state of the art in nonparametric density estimation in terms of accuracy and reliability.

The Fornax spectroscopic survey I. Survey strategy and preliminary results on the redshift distribution of a complete sample of stars and galaxies

The Fornax Spectroscopic Survey will use the Two degree Field spectrograph (2dF) of the Angle-Australian Telescope to obtain spectra for a complete sample of all 14000 objects with 16.5 less than or equal to b(j) less than or equal to 19.7 in a 12 square degree area centred on the Fornax Cluster. The aims of this project include the study of dwarf galaxies in the cluster (both known low surface brightness objects and putative normal surface brightness dwarfs) and a comparison sample of background field galaxies. We will also measure quasars and other active galaxies, any previously unrecognised compact galaxies and a large sample of Galactic stars. By selecting all objects-both stars and galaxies-independent of morphology, we cover a much larger range of surface brightness and scale size than previous surveys. In this paper we first describe the design of the survey. Our targets are selected from UK Schmidt Telescope sky survey plates digitised by the Automated Plate Measuring (APM) facility. We then describe the photometric and astrometric calibration of these data and show that the APM astrometry is accurate enough for use with the 2dF. We also describe a general approach to object identification using cross-correlations which allows us to identify and classify both stellar and galaxy spectra. We present results from the first 2dF field. Redshift distributions and velocity structures are shown for all observed objects in the direction of Fornax, including Galactic stars? galaxies in and around the Fornax Cluster, and for the background galaxy population. The velocity data for the stars show the contributions from the different Galactic components, plus a small tail to high velocities. We find no galaxies in the foreground to the cluster in our 2dF field. The Fornax Cluster is clearly defined kinematically. The mean velocity from the 26 cluster members having reliable redshifts is 1560 +/- 80 km s(-1). They show a velocity dispersion of 380 +/- 50 km s(-1). Large-scale structure can be traced behind the cluster to a redshift beyond z = 0.3. Background compact galaxies and low surface brightness galaxies are found to follow the general galaxy distribution.

Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator for 30 countries from 1970-2000. After some plausibility checks, we refer to these series to test a number of hypotheses. Cross correlations reveal a high degree of interconnectedness. Moreover, the number of highly positive correlations has increased over time, whereas the number of low and moderate correlations has decreased. A principal components analysis yields a first component that can be interpreted as the world business cycle. The further components suggest the existence of a Scandinavian-Anglo-Saxon business cycle as well as of another, smaller group of Anglo-Saxon countries that move together. This finding is replicated by a hierarchical cluster analysis, which in addition suggests a closely integrated group of non-Scandinavian and non-English speaking European countries plus Japan and Israel. Furthermore, there is indication for some, albeit weak business cycle integration in Southeast Asia and in South America. The international business cycle is thus found to have a hierarchical structure.

A comparison of different choices for the regularization parameter in inverse electrocardiography models

Calculating the potentials on the heart’s epicardial surface from the body surface potentials constitutes one form of inverse problems in electrocardiography (ECG). Since these problems are ill-posed, one approach is to use zero-order Tikhonov regularization, where the squared norms of both the residual and the solution are minimized, with a relative weight determined by the regularization parameter. In this paper, we used three different methods to choose the regularization parameter in the inverse solutions of ECG. The three methods include the L-curve, the generalized cross validation (GCV) and the discrepancy principle (DP). Among them, the GCV method has received less attention in solutions to ECG inverse problems than the other methods. Since the DP approach needs knowledge of norm of noises, we used a model function to estimate the noise. The performance of various methods was compared using a concentric sphere model and a real geometry heart-torso model with a distribution of current dipoles placed inside the heart model as the source. Gaussian measurement noises were added to the body surface potentials. The results show that the three methods all produce good inverse solutions with little noise; but, as the noise increases, the DP approach produces better results than the L-curve and GCV methods, particularly in the real geometry model. Both the GCV and L-curve methods perform well in low to medium noise situations.

Direction of Causation Modeling Between Cross-Sectional Measures of Parenting and Psychological Distress in Female Twins

Under certain conditions, cross-sectional analysis of cross-twin intertrait correlations can provide important information about the direction of causation (DOC) between two variables. A community-based sample of Australian female twins aged 18 to 45 years was mailed an extensive Health and Lifestyle Questionnaire (HLQ) that covered a wide range of personality and behavioral measures. Included were self-report measures of recent psychological distress and perceived childhood environment (PBI). Factor analysis of the PBI yielded three interpretable dimensions: Coldness, Overprotection, and Autonomy. Univariate analysis revealed that parental Overprotection and Autonomy were best explained by additive genetic, shared, and nonshared environmental effects (ACE), whereas the best-fitting model for PBI Coldness and the three measures of psychological distress (Depression, Phobic Anxiety, and Somatic Distress) included only additive genetic and nonshared environmental effects (AE). A common pathway model best explained the covariation between (1) the three PBI dimensions and (2) the three measures of psychological distress. DOC modeling between latent constructs of parenting and psychological distress revealed that a model which specified recollected parental behavior as the cause of psychological distress provided a better fit than a model which specified psychological distress as the cause of recollected parental behavior. Power analyses and limitations of the findings are discussed.

Correlations between the satellite-derived seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass and aerosol optical depth in the Southern Ocean: Evidence for the influence of sea ice

The relationship between the production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the upper ocean and atmospheric sulfate aerosols has been confirmed through local shipboard measurements, and global modeling studies alike. In order to examine whether such a connection may be recoverable in the satellite record, we have analyzed the correlation between mean surface chlorophyll (CHL) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Southern Ocean, where the marine atmosphere is relatively remote from anthropogenic and continental influences. We carried out the analysis in 5-degree zonal bands between 50 degrees S and 70 degrees S, for the period ( 1997 - 2004), and in smaller meridional sectors in the Eastern Antarctic, Ross and Weddell seas. Seasonality is moderate to strong in both CHL and AOD signatures throughout the study regions. Coherence in the CHL and AOD time series is strong in the band between 50 degrees S and 60 degrees S, however this synchrony is absent in the sea-ice zone (SIZ) south of 60 degrees S. Marked interannual variability in CHL occurs south of 60 degrees S, presumably related to variability in sea-ice production during the previous winter. We find a clear latitudinal difference in the cross correlation between CHL and AOD, with the AOD peak preceding the CHL bloom by up to 6 weeks in the SIZ. This suggests that substantial trace gas emissions ( aerosol precursors) are being produced over the SIZ in spring ( October - December) as sea ice melts. This hypothesis is supported by field data that record extremely high levels of sulfur species in sea ice, surface seawater, and the overlying atmosphere during ice melt.

Orbital currents and charge density waves in a generalized Hubbard ladder

We study a generalized Hubbard model on the two-leg ladder at zero temperature, focusing on a parameter region with staggered flux (SF)/d-density wave (DDW) order. To guide our numerical calculations, we first investigate the location of a SF/DDW phase in the phase diagram of the half-filled weakly interacting ladder using a perturbative renormalization group (RG) and bosonization approach. For hole doping 6 away from half-filling, finite-system density-matrix renormalizationgroup (DMRG) calculations are used to study ladders with up to 200 rungs for intermediate-strength interactions. In the doped SF/DDW phase, the staggered rung current and the rung electron density both show periodic spatial oscillations, with characteristic wavelengths 2/delta and 1/delta, respectively, corresponding to ordering wavevectors 2k(F) and 4k(F) for the currents and densities, where 2k(F) = pi(1 - delta). The density minima are located at the anti-phase domain walls of the staggered current. For sufficiently large dopings, SF/DDW order is suppressed. The rung density modulation also exists in neighboring phases where currents decay exponentially. We show that most of the DMRG results can be qualitatively understood from weak-coupling RG/bosonization arguments. However, while these arguments seem to suggest a crossover from non-decaying correlations to power-law decay at a length scale of order 1/delta, the DMRG results are consistent with a true long-range order scenario for the currents and densities. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-sectional and prospective relationships of interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein with physical performance in elderly persons: MacArthur Studies of Successful aging

Although IL-6 has been shown to predict onset of disability in older persons and both IL-6 and CRP are associated with motality risk, these markers of inflammation have only limited associations with physical performance, except for walking measures and grip strength at baseline, and do not predict change in performance 7 years later in a high-functioning subset of older adults.

Effects of temperature-dependent viscosity variation on entropy generation, heat and fluid flow through a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section

Effect of temperature-dependent viscosity on fully developed forced convection in a duct of rectangular cross-section occupied by a fluid-saturated porous medium is investigated analytically. The Darcy flow model is applied and the viscosity-temperature relation is assumed to be an inverse-linear one. The case of uniform heat flux on the walls, i.e. the H boundary condition in the terminology of Kays and Crawford, is treated. For the case of a fluid whose viscosity decreases with temperature, it is found that the effect of the variation is to increase the Nusselt number for heated walls. Having found the velocity and the temperature distribution, the second law of thermodynamics is invoked to find the local and average entropy generation rate. Expressions for the entropy generation rate, the Bejan number, the heat transfer irreversibility, and the fluid flow irreversibility are presented in terms of the Brinkman number, the Péclet number, the viscosity variation number, the dimensionless wall heat flux, and the aspect ratio (width to height ratio). These expressions let a parametric study of the problem based on which it is observed that the entropy generated due to flow in a duct of square cross-section is more than those of rectangular counterparts while increasing the aspect ratio decreases the entropy generation rate similar to what previously reported for the clear flow case.

Heat transfer and entropy generation optimization of forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section

We investigate analytically the first and the second law characteristics of fully developed forced convection inside a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section. The Darcy-Brinkman flow model is employed. Three different types of thermal boundary conditions are examined. Expressions for the Nusselt number, the Bejan number, and the dimensionless entropy generation rate are presented in terms of the system parameters. The conclusions of this analytical study will make it possible to compare, evaluate, and optimize alternative rectangular duct design options in terms of heat transfer, pressure drop, and entropy generation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cross-linguistic comparison of address pronoun use in four European languages: Intralingual and interlingual dimensions

As part of a major ongoing project, we consider and compare contemporary patterns of address pronoun use in four major European languages- French, German, Italian and Swedish. We are specifically interested in two major aspects: intralingual behaviour, that is, within the same language community, and interlingual dimensions of address pronoun use. With respect to the former, we summarize our key findings to date. We then give consideration in a more preliminary fashion to issues and evidence relevant to the latter.

Analytical solution of forced convection in a duct of rectangular cross-section saturated by a porous medium

A theoretical analysis is presented to investigate fully developed (both thermally and hydrodynamically) forced convection in a duct of rectangular cross-section filled with a hyper-porous medium. The Darcy-Brinkman model for flow through porous media was adopted in the present analysis. A Fourier series type solution is applied to obtain the exact velocity and temperature distribution within the duct. The case of uniform heat flux on the walls, i.e. the H boundary condition in the terminology of Kays and Crawford [1], is treated. Values of the Nusselt number and the friction factor as a function of the aspect ratio, the Darcy number, and the viscosity ratio are reported.

Pair correlations in a finite-temperature 1D Bose gas

We calculate the two-particle local correlation for an interacting 1D Bose gas at finite temperature and classify various physical regimes. We present the exact numerical solution by using the Yang-Yang equations and Hellmann-Feynman theorem and develop analytical approaches. Our results draw prospects for identifying the regimes of coherent output of an atom laser, and of finite-temperature “fermionization” through the measurement of the rates of two-body inelastic processes, such as photoassociation.