On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Goal orientation, ability and task performance: A moderated analysis

Achievement goal orientation represents an individual's general approach to an achievement situation, and has important implications for how individuals react to novel, challenging tasks. However, theorists such as Yeo and Neal (2004) have suggested that the effects of goal orientation may emerge over time. Bell and Kozlowski (2002) have further argued that these effects may be moderated by individual ability. The current study tested the dynamic effects of a new 2x2 model of goal orientation (mastery/performance x approach/avoidance) on performance on a simulated air traffic control (ATC) task, as moderated by dynamic spatial ability. One hundred and one first-year participants completed a self-report goal orientation measure and computerbased dynamic spatial ability test and performed 30 trials of an ATC task. Hypotheses were tested using a two-level hierarchical linear model. Mastery-approach orientation was positively related to task performance, although no interaction with ability was observed. Performance-avoidance orientation was negatively related to task performance; this association was weaker at high levels of ability. Theoretical and practical implications will be discussed.

Pacific pandanus fruit: an ethnographic approach to understanding an overlooked source of provitamin A carotenoids

Commonly recommended plant sources of provitamin A, such as dark green leafy vegetables, are not acceptable in many population groups. The objective of this study was to identify other indigenous foods that may be effectively promoted to alleviate vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and to gather information relevant to identification, production, acquisition, and consumption of foods relevant to a food-based VAD prevention strategy in the Federated States of Micronesia. An ethnographic study on edible pandanus cultivars, involving key informant interviews and observation was carried out. Analyses revealed a great range in carotenoid content. Several orange-coloured pandanus cultivars, all highly acceptable, contained high levels of carotenoid, almost meeting daily requirements in usual consumption patterns, whereas light yellow-coloured cultivars contained low levels. Availability has decreased substantially in recent years due to increased consumption of imported foods and general neglect of indigenous foods. High-carotenoid pandanus should be promoted for general enjoyment and health benefits.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Safety issues in functional capacity evaluation: Findings from a trial of a new approach for evaluating clients with chronic back pain

Although safety is recognized as a critical issue in functional capacity evaluations (FCEs), it has rarely been investigated. This paper reports on the findings of a study which examined safety aspects of a new approach to FCE. Fourteen rehabilitation clients with chronic back pain participated in the study. Aspects examined included the pre-FCE screening procedures, the monitoring of performance and safety during the FCE, and the end of FCE measures and follow-up procedures. Support was found for the screening procedures of the approach, particularly blood pressure measurement, and for the combined approach to monitoring of the persons performance from biomechanical, physiological and psychophysical perspectives. Issues for FCE safety in general are identified and discussed, including the importance of screening procedures to determine readiness for FCEs and the issue of load handling in FCEs, especially in relation to clients with chronic back pain.

General practitioner, specialist providers case conferences in palliative care: Lessons learned from 56 case conferences

OBJECTIVE: To describe the utility and acceptability to general practitioners and palliative care staff of case conferences in palliative care. METHOD: Research focussed on case conferences conducted between GPs and staff of three specialist palliative care units (in an inner urban, outer metropolitan and regional setting), at the time of referral of patients to the service. Telephone interviews were conducted with all GPs who participated in a case conference, and focus groups were conducted with palliative care staff. RESULTS: For most GPs, case conferences by teleconference were a time effective and immediate means of information transfer. The best instances for a conference were at time of patient referral, time of discharge to the community, or where the case was complex. General practitioners appreciated access to multiple professionals simultaneously. Workload pressures were a drawback of participation for both GPs and specialists. Palliative care team members thought case conferences gave GPs an appreciation of a team approach, and reduced professional isolation. The usefulness of the case conferences depended on the willingness of the GP to participate. General practitioners would participate again provided they did not have to organise the case conference. Specialist staff were concerned by the financial cost of organising case conferences. DISCUSSION: Case conferences provide useful information exchange between GPs and specialist staff, and are acceptable to both parties. Much depends on the individual GPs attitude toward participation, as well as the timing of the conferences in the course of the patient's illness. Organisation needs to be a task of the specialist units, who would need administrative support to organise them. (author abstract)

Views of general practitioners and benzodiazepine users on benzodiazepines: A qualitative analysis

Effectively assisting benzodiazepine users to cease use requires a greater understanding of general practitioners' (GPs) and benzodiazepine users' views on using and ceasing benzodiazepines. This paper reports the findings from a qualitative study that examined the views of 28 GPs and 23 benzodiazepine users (BUs) in Cairns, Australia. A semi-structured interview was conducted with all participants and the information gained was analysed using the Consensual Qualitative Research Approach, which allowed comparisons to be made between the views of the two groups of interviewees. There was commonality between GPs and BUs on reasons for commencing benzodiazepines, the role of dependence in continued use, and the importance of lifestyle change in its cessation. However, several differences emerged regarding commencement of use and processes of cessation. In particular, users felt there was greater need for GPs to routinely advise patients about non-pharmacological management of their problems and potential adverse consequences of long-term use before commencing benzodiazepines. Cessation could be discussed with all patients who use benzodiazepines for longer than 3 months, strategies offered to assist in management of withdrawal and anxiety, and referral to other health service providers for additional support. Lifestyle change could receive greater focus at all stages of treatment. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined external-endonasal approach for complete excision of the lacrimal drainage apparatus

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to describe a new surgical technique for the complete excision of the lacrimal drainage apparatus (LDA) that combines external and endoscopic approaches. Methods: This study involved a noncomparative, retrospective chart review of the clinical and pathological findings of four patients presenting with LDA papillomas who underwent a combined open and endonasal excision of the lacrimal system. Results. Of the four patients, three were male. The mean age at referral was 41 years, and all cases were unilateral. Histopathology revealed two transitional cell papillomas, one squamous cell papilloma, and one combined transitional/squamous papilloma. Epiphora and an external lesion were the main complaints at presentation. Nasolacrimal duct obstruction was present in all four patients. Papilloma virus infection was suggested in two cases and was confirmed in the only patient who had recurrence. CT identified a solid enhancing mass in two cases. The surgical approach in all cases was performed with the patient under general anesthetic supplemented with infiltration of local anesthesia with vasoconstriction. The lacrimal sac was exposed as per an external dacryocystorhinostomy with biopsy collection from the lacrimal sac lumen to confirm the diagnosis prior LDA excision. The superior aspect of the LDA was isolated by using lacrimal probes in each canaliculus to stabilized parallel incisions and careful dissection toward the common canaliculus until they met the medial aspect of the lacrimal sac. The sac was then separated from the periosteum from the medial orbital wall, using sharp dissection. Finally, an endoscopic dissection of the lower end of the nasolacrimal duct released the most inferior aspect of the LDA, allowing the surgeon to pull and excise the complete system from the external wound. Conclusions: Extensive LDA papillomas required complete excision of the drainage system to prevent recurrence and/or malignant transformation. The use of a combined approach through an open excision of the superior part of the LDA in conjunction with the direct manipulation of the nasolacrimal duct guided by the nasal endoscope facilitates the complete excision of the system for extensive benign lesions.

Improvements in the data partitioning approach for frequent itemsets mining

Frequent Itemsets mining is well explored for various data types, and its computational complexity is well understood. There are methods to deal effectively with computational problems. This paper shows another approach to further performance enhancements of frequent items sets computation. We have made a series of observations that led us to inventing data pre-processing methods such that the final step of the Partition algorithm, where a combination of all local candidate sets must be processed, is executed on substantially smaller input data. The paper shows results from several experiments that confirmed our general and formally presented observations.

Programs as paths: An approach to timing constraint analysis

A program can be decomposed into a set of possible execution paths. These can be described in terms of primitives such as assignments, assumptions and coercions, and composition operators such as sequential composition and nondeterministic choice as well as finitely or infinitely iterated sequential composition. Some of these paths cannot possibly be followed (they are dead or infeasible), and they may or may not terminate. Decomposing programs into paths provides a foundation for analyzing properties of programs. Our motivation is timing constraint analysis of real-time programs, but the same techniques can be applied in other areas such as program testing. In general the set of execution paths for a program is infinite. For timing analysis we would like to decompose a program into a finite set of subpaths that covers all possible execution paths, in the sense that we only have to analyze the subpaths in order to determine suitable timing constraints that cover all execution paths.