Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The programming language python in earth system simulations

-scale vary from a planetary scale and million years for convection problems to 100km and 10 years for fault systems simulations. Various techniques are in use to deal with the time dependency (e.g. Crank-Nicholson), with the non-linearity (e.g. Newton-Raphson) and weakly coupled equations (e.g. non-linear Gauss-Seidel). Besides these high-level solution algorithms discretization methods (e.g. finite element method (FEM), boundary element method (BEM)) are used to deal with spatial derivatives. Typically, large-scale, three dimensional meshes are required to resolve geometrical complexity (e.g. in the case of fault systems) or features in the solution (e.g. in mantel convection simulations). The modelling environment escript allows the rapid implementation of new physics as required for the development of simulation codes in earth sciences. Its main object is to provide a programming language, where the user can define new models and rapidly develop high-level solution algorithms. The current implementation is linked with the finite element package finley as a PDE solver. However, the design is open and other discretization technologies such as finite differences and boundary element methods could be included. escript is implemented as an extension of the interactive programming environment python (see www.python.org). Key concepts introduced are Data objects, which are holding values on nodes or elements of the finite element mesh, and linearPDE objects, which are defining linear partial differential equations to be solved by the underlying discretization technology. In this paper we will show the basic concepts of escript and will show how escript is used to implement a simulation code for interacting fault systems. We will show some results of large-scale, parallel simulations on an SGI Altix system. Acknowledgements: Project work is supported by Australian Commonwealth Government through the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, Queensland State Government Smart State Research Facility Fund, The University of Queensland and SGI.