No more free beer tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand since 1984

There are no controlled experiments in macroeconomic policy, nor in systematic programs of microeconomic reform, but a comparison between New Zealand and Australia over the period since 1984 provides as close an approach to such an experiment as is ever likely to be possible. From quite similar starting points the two countries pursued liberal reform programs that differed sharply, mainly as a result of exogenous differences in constitutional structures and the personal styles of the central actors. Australia followed a more cautious, piecemeal, consensus-based approach, whereas New Zealand, in contrast, adopted a radical, rapid, 'purist' platform. The NZ reform package was generally seen by contemporary commentators as representing a 'textbook' model for best practice reform. However, Australia since 1984 has performed much better than New Zealand, whose per capita GDP growth indeed ranked at or near the bottom of the OECD. In this paper, we assess a variety of explanations for the divergences in policies and outcomes.

Anaemia and vitamin A deficiency in poor urban pregnant women of Bangladesh

This cross-sectional study investigated the prevalence of anaemia and vitamin A deficiency (VAD) among pregnant women in a poor urban population of Bangladesh. It also examined the association of various socio-economic and dietary factors with anaemia and vitamin A status. A maternal and child health clinic in Dhaka city, Bangladesh was used to obtain the sample. Three hundred and eighty three pregnant women, aged 20-30 years, of 20-30 weeks gestation were randomly selected from women on their first presentation for antenatal care. Socio-economic, pregnancy related information, usual dietary pattern, and anthropometric data were collected. Blood haemoglobin and serum retinol (vitamin A) concentrations were determined. About 40% of the pregnant women were anaemic (haemoglobin <11.0 g/dl) and 45% had low serum vitamin A levels (<30 mug/dl); with 8.6% having sub-clinical VAD (serum retinol <20 μg/dl). The women with low serum vitamin A levels had 1.8 times greater risk of being anaemic than did the women with normal vitamin A status. Food frequency data revealed that a large proportion of these women did not consume egg (49%), milk (25%), meat (31%), liver (83%), large fish (32%), small fish (39%) and sweet pumpkin (52%) at all; while about 25% of the women reported consuming dark green leafy vegetables (DGLV) and 64% reported an intake of fruit at least four servings a week. The pregnant women who were either illiterate or received only informal education (up to grade ten) had significantly lower haemoglobin and serum vitamin A levels compared to those who completed at least a secondary school certificate. The women whose husbands were illiterate or received only informal education had significantly (P=0.01) lower serum vitamin A levels than those whose husbands had received at least a secondary school certificate. The women who came from families with a per-capita income below the poverty line had significantly lower haemoglobin and serum vitamin A levels compared to those who came from families with a per-capita income above the poverty line. The women who consumed three servings or less of DGLV and fruit per week had significantly lower haemoglobin and serum vitamin A levels than those who consumed four or more servings a week. The women who never consumed large fish had significantly lower haemoglobin compared to those who reported at least one serving a week. Furthermore, the women who never consumed sweet pumpkin had significantly lower serum vitamin A than the women who ate at least one serving a week. By multiple regression analysis, intake of meat, DGLV and fruit, and serum vitamin A levels were found to have a significant independent relationship with haemoglobin. The overall F-ratio (9.9) was highly significant (P=0.000), the adjusted R-square was 0.086 (multiple R=0.309). Multiple regression analysis for serum vitamin A also revealed a significant independent relationship with per capita income, haemoglobin levels, intakes of DGLV and sweet pumpkin. The overall F-ratio (10.2) was highly significant (P=0.000), the adjusted R-square was 0.10 (multiple R=0.312). In conclusion, anaemia and vitamin A deficiency were highly prevalent among poor urban pregnant women in Bangladesh. Various socio-economic and dietary factors may influence the anaemia and vitamin A status of these women. The present study emphasizes the need for a comprehensive intervention strategy, which include both nutritional and environmental factors, to improve the nutritional status of this population.

Trends in the use of hospital beds by older people in Australia: 1993-2002

Objective: To determine trends in use of Australian acute hospital inpatient services by older patients. Design and data sources: Secondary analysis of hospital data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in the period 1993-94 to 2001-02, with population data for this period from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Outcome measures: Population-based rates of hospital separations and bed utilisation. Results: The Australian aged population (65 years and older) increased by 18% compared with total population growth of 10%, yet the proportion of hospital beds occupied by older patients remained stable at 47%. The most substantial changes were observed in the population aged 75 years and older, with separations increasing by 89%, length of stay reducing by 35% and bed utilisation increasing by 23%. However, rates of bed utilisation (in relation to population) declined among older groups (10% decline in per capita use in population 75 years and older), but increased in the younger population (1% increase in per capita use in people younger than 65 years). Conclusion: Important trends in use of inpatient services were identified in this study. These trends are contrary to common perception. Ageing of the Australian population was not associated with an increase in the proportion of hospital beds used by older patients.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

British drinking: a suitable case for treatment?

The rising consumption of alcohol per capita in Britain over the past 20 years has produced large increases in the prevalence of alcoholic cirrhosis, alcohol related violence, and heavy alcohol use, costing the British economy around £30bn ($55bn; {euro}44bn) a year.1 About 7.5% of men and 2.1% of women in Britain are dependent on alcohol, among the highest rates in the European Union.2 Two papers in this issue show that two relatively brief psychosocial interventions—motivational enhancement treatment and social network therapy—are effective and cost effective in treating alcohol dependence, when delivered under routine clinical conditions in the NHS.3 4 The UK government could realise its stated aim of increasing access to effective treatments for alcohol dependence by investing in these interventions. Britain also urgently needs to reduce the high rates of high risk drinking that produce dependence, health problems, and public disorder. Epidemiologists see the key drivers of rising consumption . . . [Full text of this article]

Hydrogen production and utilisation opportunities for Australia

Worldwide, research and policy momentum is increasing in the move towards a hydrogen economy. Australia is one of the highest per capita users of energy, but relies heavily on fossil fuels to fulfil its energy requirements-thus making it one of the highest per capita polluters. It is also a country rich in natural resources, giving it the full range of options for a hydrogen economy. With the first Australian Hydrogen Study being completed by the end of 2003, there has as yet been little analysis of the options available to this country specifically. This paper reviews the resources, production and utilisation technology available for a hydrogen economy in Australia, and discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of the different options. It points out that coal, natural gas, biomass and water are the most promising hydrogen sources at this stage, while solid oxide and molten carbonate fuel cells may hold the advantage in terms of current expertise for utilising hydrogen rich gases for stationary power in Australia. (c) 2004 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.