Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Understanding the phylogeographic patterns of European hedgehogs, Erinaceus concolor and E-europaeus using the MHC

The genome of the European hedgehog, Erinaceus concolor and E. europaeus, shows a strong signal of cycles of restriction to glacial refugia and postglacial expansion. Patterns of expansion, however, differ for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and preliminary analysis of nuclear markers. In this study, we determine phylogeographic patterns in the hedgehog using two loci of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), isolated for the first time in hedgehogs. These genes show long persistence times and high polymorphism in many species because of the actions of balancing selection. Among 84 individuals screened for variation, only two DQA alleles were identified in each species, but 10 DQB alleles were found in E. concolor and six in E. europaeus. A strong effect of demography on patterns of DQB variability is observed, with only weak evidence of balancing selection. While data from mtDNA clearly subdivide both species into monophyletic subgroups, the MHC data delineate only E. concolor into distinct subgroups, supporting the preliminary findings of other nuclear markers. Together with differences in variability, this suggests that the refugia history and/or expansion patterns of E. concolor and E. europaeus differ.

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

Systematic changes in the duration and precision of interception in response to variation of amplitude and effector size

The results of two experiments are reported that examined how performance in a simple interceptive action (hitting a moving target) was influenced by the speed of the target, the size of the intercepting effector and the distance moved to make the interception. In Experiment 1, target speed and the width of the intercepting manipulandum (bat) were varied. The hypothesis that people make briefer movements, when the temporal accuracy and precision demands of the task are high, predicts that bat width and target speed will divisively interact in their effect on movement time (MT) and that shorter MTs will be associated with a smaller temporal variable error (VE). An alternative hypothesis that people initiate movement when the rate of expansion (ROE) of the target's image reaches a specific, fixed criterion value predicts that bat width will have no effect on MT. The results supported the first hypothesis: a statistically reliable interaction of the predicted form was obtained and the temporal VE was smaller for briefer movements. In Experiment 2, distance to move and target speed were varied. MT increased in direct proportion to distance and there was a divisive interaction between distance and speed; as in Experiment 1, temporal VE was smaller for briefer movements. The pattern of results could not be explained by the strategy of initiating movement at a fixed value of the ROE or at a fixed value of any other perceptual variable potentially available for initiating movement. It is argued that the results support pre-programming of MT with movement initiated when the target's time to arrival at the interception location reaches a criterion value that is matched to the pre-programmed MT. The data supported completely open-loop control when MT was less than between 200 and 240 ms with corrective sub-movements increasingly frequent for movements of longer duration.

Modern developments in hypersonic wind tunnels

The development of new methods of producing hypersonic wind-tunnel flows at increasing velocities during the last few decades is reviewed with attention to airbreathing propulsion, hypervelocity aerodynamics and superorbital aerodynamics. The role of chemical reactions in these flows leads to use of a binary scaling simulation parameter, which can be related to the Reynolds number, and which demands that smaller wind tunnels require higher reservoir pressure levels for simulation of flight phenomena. The use of combustion heated vitiated wind tunnels for propulsive research is discussed, as well as the use of reflected shock tunnels for the same purpose. A flight experiment validating shock-tunnel results is described, and relevant developments in shock tunnel instrumentation are outlined. The use of shock tunnels for hypervelocity testing is reviewed, noting the role of driver gas contamination in determining test time, and presenting examples of air dissociation effects on model flows. Extending the hypervelocity testing range into the superorbital regime with useful test times is seen to be possible by use of expansion tube/tunnels with a free piston driver.