Significant patterns of population genetic structure and limited gene flow in a threatened macropodid marsupial despite continuous habitat in southeast Queensland, Australia

Many endangered species worldwide are found in remnant populations, often within fragmented landscapes. However, when possible, an understanding of the natural extent of population structure and dispersal behaviour of threatened species would assist in their conservation and management. The brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata), a once abundant and widespread rock-wallaby species across southeastern Australia, has become nearly extinct across much of the southern part of its range. However, the northern part of the species' range still sustains many small colonies closely distributed across suitable habitat, providing a rare opportunity to investigate the natural population dynamics of a listed threatened species. We used 12 microsatellite markers to investigate genetic diversity, population structure and gene flow among brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies within and among two valley regions with continuous habitat in southeast Queensland. We documented high and signifcant levels of population genetic structure between rock-wallaby colonies embedded in continuous escarpment habitat and forest. We found a strong and significant pattern of isolation-by-distance among colonies indicating restricted gene flow over a small geographic scale (< 10 km) and conclude that gene flow is more likely limited by intrinsic factors rather than environmental factors. In addition, we provide evidence that genetic diversity was significantly lower in colonies located in a more isolated valley region compared to colonies located in a valley region surrounded by continuous habitat. These findings shed light on the processes that have resulted in the endangered status of rock-wallaby species in Australia and they have strong implications for the conservation and management of both the remaining 'connected' brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies in the northern parts of the species' range and the remnant endangered populations in the south.

Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

Habitat selection and breeding success in a forest-nesting Alcid, the marbled murrelet, in two landscapes with different degrees of forest fragmentation

We studied habitat selection and breeding success in marked populations of a protected seabird (family Alcidae), the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), in a relatively intact and a heavily logged old-growth forest landscape in south-western Canada. Murrelets used old-growth fragments either proportionately to their size frequency distribution (intact) or they tended to nest in disproportionately smaller fragments (logged). Multiple regression modelling showed that murrelet distribution could be explained by proximity of nests to landscape features producing biotic and abiotic edge effects. Streams, steeper slopes and lower elevations were selected in both landscapes, probably due to good nesting habitat conditions and easier access to nest sites. In the logged landscape, the murrelets nested closer to recent clearcuts than would be expected. Proximity to the ocean was favoured in the intact area. The models of habitat selection had satisfactory discriminatory ability in both landscapes. Breeding success (probability of nest survival to the middle of the chick rearing period), inferred from nest attendance patterns by radio-tagged parents, was modelled in the logged landscape. Survivorship was greater in areas with recent clearcuts and lower in areas with much regrowth, i.e. it was positively correlated with recent habitat fragmentation. We conclude that marbled murrelets can successfully breed in old-growth forests fragmented by logging.

Fragmented coherence: Solid waste management in Colombo

Notwithstanding the increasingly fragmented organizational relationships within Colombo's urban governance system, the cooperative nature of stakeholder relationships lends a high level of coherence to the overall system. Since 1995, Colombo's solid waste management system has been characterized by the increased role of the private sector, community-based organizations and NGOs. Whilst the increasingly fragmented nature of this system exhibits some deeply ingrained problems, there are also a number of positives associated with the increased role of civil society actors and, in particular, the informal sector. Reforming regulatory frameworks so as to integrate some of the social norms that are integral to the lives of the majority of urban residents will contribute to regulatory frameworks being considerably more enforceable than is currently the case. Such reform requires that institutional and regulatory frameworks need to be flexible enough to adapt to the changing social, political and economic context. In the Colombo case, effective cooperation between public sector and civil society stakeholders illustrates that adaptive institutional arrangements grounded in pragmatism are feasible. The challenge that arises is to translate these institutional arrangements into adaptive regulatory frameworks - something that would require a significant mind shift on the part of planners and urban managers.

Mapping and characterising subtropical estuarine landscapes using aerial photography and GIS for potential application in wildlife conservation and management

Coarse-resolution thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data and implemented in GIS play an important role in coastal and marine conservation, research and management. Here, we describe an approach for fine-resolution mapping of land-cover types using aerial photography and ancillary GIs and ground data in a large (100 x 35 km) subtropical estuarine system (Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia). We have developed and implemented a classification scheme representing 24 coastal (subtidal, intertidal. mangrove, supratidal and terrestrial) cover types relevant to the ecology of estuarine animals, nekton and shorebirds. The accuracy of classifications of the intertidal and subtidal cover types, as indicated by the agreement between the mapped (predicted) and reference (ground) data, was 77-88%, depending on the zone and level of generalization required. The variability and spatial distribution of habitat mosaics (landscape types) across the mapped environment were assessed using K-means clustering and validated with Classification and Regression Tree models. Seven broad landscape types could be distinguished and ways of incorporating the information on landscape composition into site-specific conservation and field research are discussed. This research illustrates the importance and potential applications of fine-resolution mapping for conservation and management of estuarine habitats and their terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

Restoration of degraded tropical forest landscapes

The current scale of deforestation in tropical regions and the large areas of degraded lands now present underscore the urgent need,for interventions to restore biodiversity, ecological functioning, and the supply of goods and ecological services previously used by poor rural communities. Traditional timber plantations have supplied some goods but have made only minor contributions to fulfilling most of these other objectives. New approaches to reforestation are now emerging, with potential for both overcoming forest degradation and addressing rural poverty.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hyperspace geography: Visualizing fitness landscapes beyond 4D

Human perception is finely tuned to extract structure about the 4D world of time and space as well as properties such as color and texture. Developing intuitions about spatial structure beyond 4D requires exploiting other perceptual and cognitive abilities. One of the most natural ways to explore complex spaces is for a user to actively navigate through them, using local explorations and global summaries to develop intuitions about structure, and then testing the developing ideas by further exploration. This article provides a brief overview of a technique for visualizing surfaces defined over moderate-dimensional binary spaces, by recursively unfolding them onto a 2D hypergraph. We briefly summarize the uses of a freely available Web-based visualization tool, Hyperspace Graph Paper (HSGP), for exploring fitness landscapes and search algorithms in evolutionary computation. HSGP provides a way for a user to actively explore a landscape, from simple tasks such as mapping the neighborhood structure of different points, to seeing global properties such as the size and distribution of basins of attraction or how different search algorithms interact with landscape structure. It has been most useful for exploring recursive and repetitive landscapes, and its strength is that it allows intuitions to be developed through active navigation by the user, and exploits the visual system's ability to detect pattern and texture. The technique is most effective when applied to continuous functions over Boolean variables using 4 to 16 dimensions.

Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.