Bayesian inferences on the recent island colonization history by the bird Zosterops lateralis lateralis

The founding of new populations by small numbers of colonists has been considered a potentially important mechanism promoting evolutionary change in island populations. Colonizing species, such as members of the avian species complex Zosterops lateralis, have been used to support this idea. A large amount of background information on recent colonization history is available for one Zosterops subspecies, Z. lateralis lateralis, providing the opportunity to reconstruct the population dynamics of its colonization sequence. We used a Bayesian approach to combine historical and demographic information available on Z. l. lateralis with genotypic data from six microsatellite loci, and a rejection algorithm to make simultaneous inferences on the demographic parameters describing the recent colonization history of this subspecies in four southwest Pacific islands. Demographic models assuming mutation–drift equilibrium or a large number of founders were better supported than models assuming founder events for three of four recently colonized island populations. Posterior distributions of demographic parameters supported (i) a large stable effective population size of several thousands individuals with point estimates around 4000–5000; (ii) a founder event of very low intensity with a large effective number of founders around 150–200 individuals for each island in three of four islands, suggesting the colonization of those islands by one flock of large size or several flocks of average size; and (iii) a founder event of higher intensity on Norfolk Island with an effective number of founders around 20 individuals, suggesting colonization by a single flock of moderate size. Our inferences on demographic parameters, especially those on the number of founders, were relatively insensitive to the precise choice of prior distributions for microsatellite mutation processes and demographic parameters, suggesting that our analysis provides a robust description of the recent colonization history of the subspecies.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Reduced genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation after translocation: Comparison of the remnant and translocated populations of bridled nailtail wallabies (Onychogalea fraenata)

Loss of genetic diversity and increased population differentiation from source populations are common problems associated with translocation programmes established from captive-bred stock or a small number of founders. The bridled nailtail wallaby is one of the most endangered macropods in Australia, having been reduced to a single remnant population in the last 100 years. A translocated population of bridled nailtail wallabies was established using animals sourced directly from the remnant population (wild-released) as well as the progeny of animals collected for a captive breeding programme (captive-bred). The aims of this study were to compare genetic diversity among released animals and their wild-born progeny to genetic diversity observed in the remnant population, and to monitor changes in genetic diversity over time as more animals were released into the population. Heterozygosity did not differ between the translocated and remnant population; however, allelic diversity was significantly reduced across all released animals and their wild-born progeny. Animals bred in captivity and their wild-born progeny were also significantly differentiated from the source population after just four generations. Wild-released animals, however, were representative of the source population and several alleles were unique to this group. Both heterozygosity and allelic diversity among translocated animals decreased over time with the additional release of captive-bred animals, as no new genetic stock was added to the population. Captive breeding programmes can provide large numbers of animals for release, but this study highlights the importance of sourcing animals directly from remnant populations in order to maintain genetic diversity and minimise genetic drift.