Bayesian inferences on the recent island colonization history by the bird Zosterops lateralis lateralis

The founding of new populations by small numbers of colonists has been considered a potentially important mechanism promoting evolutionary change in island populations. Colonizing species, such as members of the avian species complex Zosterops lateralis, have been used to support this idea. A large amount of background information on recent colonization history is available for one Zosterops subspecies, Z. lateralis lateralis, providing the opportunity to reconstruct the population dynamics of its colonization sequence. We used a Bayesian approach to combine historical and demographic information available on Z. l. lateralis with genotypic data from six microsatellite loci, and a rejection algorithm to make simultaneous inferences on the demographic parameters describing the recent colonization history of this subspecies in four southwest Pacific islands. Demographic models assuming mutation–drift equilibrium or a large number of founders were better supported than models assuming founder events for three of four recently colonized island populations. Posterior distributions of demographic parameters supported (i) a large stable effective population size of several thousands individuals with point estimates around 4000–5000; (ii) a founder event of very low intensity with a large effective number of founders around 150–200 individuals for each island in three of four islands, suggesting the colonization of those islands by one flock of large size or several flocks of average size; and (iii) a founder event of higher intensity on Norfolk Island with an effective number of founders around 20 individuals, suggesting colonization by a single flock of moderate size. Our inferences on demographic parameters, especially those on the number of founders, were relatively insensitive to the precise choice of prior distributions for microsatellite mutation processes and demographic parameters, suggesting that our analysis provides a robust description of the recent colonization history of the subspecies.

Divergent environments and population bottlenecks fail to generate premating isolation in Drosophila pseudoobscura

While the feasibility of bottleneck-induced speciation is in doubt, population bottlenecks may still affect the speciation process by interacting with divergent selection. To explore this possibility, I conducted a laboratory speciation experiment using Drosophila pseudoobscura involving 78 replicate populations assigned in a two-way factorial design to both bottleneck (present vs. absent) and environment (ancestral vs. novel) treatments. Populations independently evolved under these treatments and were then tested for assortative mating and male mating success against their common ancestor. Bottlenecks alone did not generate any premating isolation, despite an experimental design that was conducive to bottleneck-induced speciation. Premating isolation also did not evolve in the novel environment treatment, neither in the presence nor absence of bottlenecks. However, male mating success was significantly reduced in the novel environment treatment, both as a plastic response to this environment and as a result of environment-dependent inbreeding effects in the bottlenecked populations. Reduced mating success of derived males will hamper speciation by enhancing the mating success of immigrant, ancestral males. Novel environments are generally thought to promote ecological speciation by generating divergent natural selection. In the current experiment, however, the novel environment did not cause the evolution of any premating isolation and it reduced the likelihood of speciation through its effects on male mating success.