Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to. be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The 'spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/- 50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

Forest logging and institutional thresholds in developing south-east Asian economies: A conceptual model

Many developing south-east Asian governments are not capturing full rent from domestic forest logging operations. Such rent losses are commonly related to institutional failures, where informal institutions tend to dominate the control of forestry activity in spite of weakly enforced regulations. Our model is an attempt to add a new dimension to thinking about deforestation. We present a simple conceptual model, based on individual decisions rather than social or forest planning, which includes the human dynamics of participation in informal activity and the relatively slower ecological dynamics of changes in forest resources. We demonstrate how incumbent informal logging operations can be persistent, and that any spending aimed at replacing the informal institutions can only be successful if it pushes institutional settings past some threshold. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Integrating high and moderate spatial resolution image data to estimate forest age structure

The collection of spatial information to quantify changes to the state and condition of the environment is a fundamental component of conservation or sustainable utilization of tropical and subtropical forests, Age is an important structural attribute of old-growth forests influencing biological diversity in Australia eucalypt forests. Aerial photograph interpretation has traditionally been used for mapping the age and structure of forest stands. However this method is subjective and is not able to accurately capture fine to landscape scale variation necessary for ecological studies. Identification and mapping of fine to landscape scale vegetative structural attributes will allow the compilation of information associated with Montreal Process indicators lb and ld, which seek to determine linkages between age structure and the diversity and abundance of forest fauna populations. This project integrated measurements of structural attributes derived from a canopy-height elevation model with results from a geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model to map forest age structure at a landscape scale. The availability of multiple-scale data allows the transfer of high-resolution attributes to landscape scale monitoring. Multispectral image data were obtained from a DMSV (Digital Multi-Spectral Video) sensor over St Mary's State Forest in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Local scene variance levels for different forest tapes calculated from the DMSV data were used to optimize the tree density and canopy size output in a geometric-optical model applied to a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TU) data set. Airborne laser scanner data obtained over the project area were used to calibrate a digital filter to extract tree heights from a digital elevation model that was derived from scanned colour stereopairs. The modelled estimates of tree height, crown size, and tree density were used to produce a decision-tree classification of forest successional stage at a landscape scale. The results obtained (72% accuracy), were limited in validation, but demonstrate potential for using the multi-scale methodology to provide spatial information for forestry policy objectives (ie., monitoring forest age structure).

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Crisis, change, and institutions in forest management: the Wet Tropics of northeastern Australia

This paper tests the four-phase heuristic model of change in resource management regimes developed by Gunderson et al. (1995. In: Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions. Columbia University Press, New York, pp. 489-533) by applying it to a case analysis of rainforest management in northeastern Australia. The model suggests that resource management regimes change in four phases: (i) crisis caused by external factors, (ii) a search for alternative management solutions, (iii) creation of a new management regime, and (iv) bureaucratic implementation of the new arrangements. The history of human use arid management of the tropical forests of this region is described and applied to this model. The ensuing analysis demonstrates that: (i) resource management tends to be characterized by a series of distinct eras; (ii) changes to management regimes are precipitated by crisis; and (iii) change is externally generated. The paper concludes by arguing that this theoretical perspective oil institutional change in resource management systems has wider utility. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical and contemporary mating patterns in remnant populations of the forest tree Fraxinus excelsior L.

Genetic variation at microsatellite markers was used to quantify genetic structure and mating behavior in a severely fragmented population of the wind-pollinated, wind-dispersed temperate tree Fraxinus excelsior in a deforested catchment in Scotland. Remnants maintain high levels of genetic diversity, comparable with those reported for continuous populations in southeastern Europe, and show low interpopulation differentiation (Theta = 0.080), indicating that historical gene exchange has not been limited (Nm = 3.48). We estimated from seeds collected from all trees producing fruits in three of five remnants that F. excelsior is predominantly outcrossing (t(m). = 0.971 +/- 0.028). Use of a neighborhood model approach to describe the relative contribution of local and long-distance pollen dispersal indicates that pollen gene flow into each of the three remnants is extensive (46-95%) and pollen dispersal has two components. The first is very localized and restricted to tens of meters around the mother trees. The second is a long-distance component with dispersal occurring over several kilometers. Effective dispersal distances, accounting for the distance and directionality to mother trees of sampled pollen donors, average 328 m and are greater than values reported for a continuous population. These results suggest that the opening of the landscape facilitates airborne pollen movement and may alleviate the expected detrimental genetic effects of fragmentation.

Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance of forest area and configuration relative to local habitat factors for conserving forest mammals: A case study of koalas in Queensland, Australia

The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats by human land use are recognised as important factors influencing the decline of forest-dependent fauna. Mammal species that are dependent upon forest habitats are particularly sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have highly specific habitat requirements, and in many cases have limited ability to move through and utilise the land use matrix. We addressed this problem using a case study of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) surveyed in a fragmented rural-urban landscape in southeast Queensland, Australia. We applied a logistic modelling and hierarchical partitioning analysis to determine the importance of forest area and its configuration relative to site (local) and patch-level habitat variables. After taking into account spatial auto-correlation and the year of survey, we found koala occurrence increased with the area of all forest habitats, habitat patch size and the proportion of primary Eucalyptus tree species; and decreased with mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches, and the density of sealed roads. The difference between the effect of habitat area and configuration was not as strong as theory predicts, with the configuration of remnant forest becoming increasingly important as the area of forest habitat declines. We conclude that the area of forest, its configuration across the landscape, as well as the land use matrix, are important determinants of koala occurrence, and that habitat configuration should not be overlooked in the conservation of forest-dependent mammals, such as the koala. We highlight the implications of these findings for koala conservation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Making Fedora easier to implement with Fez: A free open source content model and workflow management front-end to Fedora

The University of Queensland, Australia has developed Fez, a world-leading user-interface and management system for Fedora-based institutional repositories, which bridges the gap between a repository and users. Christiaan Kortekaas, Andrew Bennett and Keith Webster will review this open source software that gives institutions the power to create a comprehensive repository solution without the hassle..

A modified discrete random pore model allowing for different initial surface reactivity

We investigate here a modification of the discrete random pore model [Bhatia SK, Vartak BJ, Carbon 1996;34:1383], by including an additional rate constant which takes into account the different reactivity of the initial pore surface having attached functional groups and hydrogens, relative to the subsequently exposed surface. It is observed that the relative initial reactivity has a significant effect on the conversion and structural evolution, underscoring the importance of initial surface chemistry. The model is tested against experimental data on chemically controlled char oxidation and steam gasification at various temperatures. It is seen that the variations of the reaction rate and surface area with conversion are better represented by the present approach than earlier random pore models. The results clearly indicate the improvement of model predictions in the low conversion region, where the effect of the initially attached functional groups and hydrogens is more significant, particularly for char oxidation. It is also seen that, for the data examined, the initial surface chemistry is less important for steam gasification as compared to the oxidation reaction. Further development of the approach must also incorporate the dynamics of surface complexation, which is not considered here.