Popper's Explications of Ad hocness: Circularity, Empirical Content, and Scientific Practice

Popper's explications of 'ad hoc' in relation to hypotheses and explanations turn out to be either trivial, confused or mistaken. One such explication I discuss at length is circularity; another is reduction in empirical content. I argue that non-circularity is preferable to non-ad hocness for an acceptable explanation or explanans, and I isolate some persistent errors in his analysis. Second, Popper is barking up the wrong tree in proscribing reductions in empirical content in novel hypotheses. Such reductions may constitute scientific progress. He fails to show that ad hoc hypothesis are the threat to science he claims.

New Treatments for Addiction: Behavioural, Ethical,Legal and Social Questions: Harwood & T. G. Myers eds (Book review)

This book is an exemplar of what the National Academy of Science does so well: to assemble a cast of very wellinformed and clever experts; to ask them to think hard and critically about an important issue over a substantial period of time; and to seek a consensus, if possible and failing that, to identify the critical issues on which wellinformed people disagree and to specify the evidence that has the greatest epistemic leverage in resolving disagreements.

Separating politics and scientific research on heroin prescription - In reply [Letter]

No Abstract

The self-reported impact of legal and non-legal sanctions on a group of recidivist drink drivers

Concern remains regarding the efficacy of legal sanctions to reduce drink driving behaviours among repeat offenders. The present study examined the impact of traditional legal sanctions (e.g., fines and licence disqualification periods), nonlegal sanctions, alcohol consumption and the frequency of recent offending behaviour(s) on intentions to re-offend for a group of recidivist drink drivers (N=166). The analysis indicated that participants perceived legal sanctions to be severe, but not entirely certain nor swift. In addition, self-reported recent drink driving behaviours and alcohol consumption levels were identified as predictors of future intentions to drink and drive. The findings of the study confirm the popular assumption that some repeat offenders are impervious to the threat and application of legal sanctions and suggests that additional interventions such as alcohol treatment programs are required if the drinking and driving sequence is to be broken for this population. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying stresses and support requirements in the undercut and production level drifts of block and panel caving mines

A numerical modelling strategy has been developed in order to quantify the magnitude of induced stresses at the boundaries of production level and undercut level drifts for various in situ stress environments and undercut scenarios. The results of the stress modelling were in line with qualitative experiential guidelines and a limited number of induced stress measurements documented from caving sites. A number of stress charts were developed which quantify the maximum boundary stresses in drift roofs for varying in situ stress regimes, depths and undercut scenarios. This enabled many of the experiential guidelines to be quantified and bounded. A limited number of case histories of support and support performance in cave mine drifts were compared to support recommendations using the NGI classification system, The stress charts were used to estimate the Stress Reduction Factor for this system. The back-analyses suggested that the NGI classification system might be able to give preliminary estimates of support requirements in caving mines with modifications relating to rock bolt length and the support of production level intersections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

International evaluation of current and future requirements for environmental engineering education

The field of environmental engineering is developing as a result of changing environmental requirements. In response, environmental engineering education (E3) needs to ensure that it provides students with the necessary tools to address these challenges. In this paper the current status and future development of E3 is evaluated based on a questionnaire sent to universities and potential employers of E3 graduates. With increasing demands on environmental quality, the complexity of environmental engineering problems to be solved can be expected to increase. To find solutions environmental engineers will need to work in interdisciplinary teams. Based on the questionnaire there was a broad agreement that the best way to prepare students for these future challenges is to provide them with a fundamental education in basic sciences and related engineering fields. Many exciting developments in the environmental engineering profession will be located at the interface between engineering, science, and society. Aspects of all three areas need to be included in E3 and the student needs to be exposed to the tensions associated with linking the three.

Making media work in space: An interdisciplinary perspective on media and communication requirements for current and future space communities

As humans expand into space communities will form. These have already begun to form in small ways, such as long-duration missions on the International Space Station and the space shuttle, and small-scale tourist excursions into space. Social, behavioural and communications data emerging from such existing communities in space suggest that the physically-bounded, work-oriented and traditionally male-dominated nature of these extremely remote groups present specific problems for the resident astronauts, groups of them viewed as ‘communities’, and their associated groups who remain on Earth, including mission controllers, management and astronauts’ families. Notionally feminine group attributes such as adaptive competence, social adaptation skills and social sensitivity will be crucial to the viability of space communities and in the absence of gender equity, ‘staying in touch’ by means of ‘news from home’ becomes more important than ever. A template of news and media forms and technologies is suggested to service those needs and enhance the social viability of future terraforming activities.