System for foreign exchange trading using genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning

Foreign exchange trading has emerged recently as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. A major issue for traders in the deregulated Foreign Exchange Market is when to sell and when to buy a particular currency in order to maximize profit. This paper presents novel trading strategies based on the machine learning methods of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning.

A machine learning approach to intraday trading on foreign exchange markets

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

An implementation of genetic algorithms as a basis for a trading system on the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process is very helpful. In this paper, we try to create such a system with a genetic algorithm engine to emulate trader behaviour on the foreign exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

Do migrants' remittances decline over time? Evidence from Tongans and Western Samoans in Australia

There is concern that Pacific Island economies dependent on remittances of migrants will endure foreign exchange shortages and falling living standards as remittance levels fall because of lower migration rates and the belief that migrants' willingness to remit declines over time. The empirical validity of the remittance-decay hypothesis has never been tested. From survey data on Tongan and Western Samoan migrants in Sydney, this paper estimates remittance functions using multivariate regression analysis. It is found that the remittance-decay hypothesis has no empirical validity, and migrants are motivated by factors other than altruistic family support, including asset accumulation and investment back home.

Estimating remittance functions for Pacific island migrants

There is concern that Pacific island economies dependent on remittances of migrants will endure foreign exchange shortages and declining Living standards as remittance levels drop due to lower migration rates and the belief that migrants' willingness to remit decreases over time. The empirical validity of the remittance-decay hypothesis has never been tested. From survey data on Tongan and Western Samoan migrants in Sydney, this paper estimates remittance functions using Tobit regression analysis. It is found that the remittance-decay hypothesis has no empirical validity and migrants are motivated by factors other than altruistic family support, including asset accumulation and investment back home. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

The price elasticity of the Euro to movements in foreign reserves through European Central Bank intevention

The Euro has been used as the largest weighting element in a basket of currencies for forex arrangements adopted by several Central European countries outside the European Union (EU). The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. It employs Zero-no-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction (VECM) modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate

Free-Surface Aeration and Momentum Exchange at a Bottom Outlet

This study aims to provide some new understanding of the air-water flow properties in high-velocity water jets discharging past an abrupt drop. Such a setup has been little studied to date despite the relevance to bottom outlets. Downstream of the step brink, the free-jet entrains air at both upper and lower air-water interfaces, as well as along the sides. An air-water shear layer develops at the lower nappe interface. At the lower nappe, the velocity redistribution was successfully modelled and the velocity field was found to be similar to that in two-dimensional wake flow. The results highlighted further two distinct flow regions. Close to the brink (Wex < 5000), the flow was dominated by momentum transfer. Further downstream (Wex > 5000), a strong competition between air bubble diffusion and momentum exchanges took place.

Differential patterns of Male and Female mtDNA exchange across the Atlantic Ocean in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis

Comparisons among loci with differing modes of inheritance can reveal unexpected aspects of population history. We employ a multilocus approach to ask whether two types of independently assorting mitochondrial DNAs (maternally and paternally inherited: F- and M-mtDNA) and a nuclear locus (ITS) yield concordant estimates of gene flow and population divergence. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is distributed on both North American and European coastlines and these populations are separated by the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Gene flow across the Atlantic Ocean differs among loci, with F-mtDNA and ITS showing an imprint of some genetic interchange and M-mtDNA showing no evidence for gene flow. Gene flow of F-mtDNA and ITS causes trans-Atlantic population divergence times to be greatly underestimated for these loci, although a single trans-Atlantic population divergence time (1.2 MYA) can be accommodated by considering all three loci in combination in a coalescent framework. The apparent lack of gene flow for M-mtDNA is not readily explained by different dispersal capacities of male and female mussels. A genetic barrier to M-mtDNA exchange between North American and European mussel populations is likely to explain the observed pattern, perhaps associated with the double uniparental system of mitochondrial DNA inheritance.

Temperature dependence of the magnetic susceptibility for triangular-lattice antiferromagnets with spatially anisotropic exchange constants

We present the temperature dependence of the uniform susceptibility of spin-half quantum antiferromagnets on spatially anisotropic triangular lattices, using high-temperature series expansions. We consider a model with two exchange constants J1 and J2 on a lattice that interpolates between the limits of a square lattice (J1=0), a triangular lattice (J2=J1), and decoupled linear chains (J2=0). In all cases, the susceptibility, which has a Curie-Weiss behavior at high temperatures, rolls over and begins to decrease below a peak temperature Tp. Scaling the exchange constants to get the same peak temperature shows that the susceptibilities for the square lattice and linear chain limits have similar magnitudes near the peak. Maximum deviation arises near the triangular-lattice limit, where frustration leads to much smaller susceptibility and with a flatter temperature dependence. We compare our results to the inorganic materials Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4 and to a number of organic molecular crystals. We find that the former (Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4) are weakly frustrated and their exchange parameters determined through the temperature dependence of the susceptibility are in agreement with neutron-scattering measurements. In contrast, the organic materials considered are strongly frustrated with exchange parameters near the isotropic triangular-lattice limit.

The role of affect, fairness, and social perception in team member exchange

Accumulating evidence suggests that Team-member exchange (TMX) influences employee work attitudes and behaviours separately from the effects of leader-member exchange (LMX). In particular, little is known of the effect of LMX differentiation (in-group versus out-group) as a process of social exhange that can, in turn, affect TMX quality. To explore this phenomenon, this chapter presents a multi-level model of TMX in organizations, which incorporates LMX differentiation, team identification, team member affect at the individual level, and fairness of LMX differentiation and affective climate at the group-level. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our model for theory, research, and practice.

Effect of ionic strength and clay mineralogy on Na-Ca exchange and the SAR-ESP relationship

The relationship between sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) for all soils has traditionally been assumed to be similar to that developed by the United States Salinity Laboratory (USSL) in 1954. However, under certain conditions, this relationship has been shown not to be constant, but to vary with both ionic strength and clay mineralogy. We conducted a detailed experiment to determine the effect of ionic strength on the Na+-Ca2+ exchange of four clay minerals (kaolinite, illite, pyrophyllite, and montmorillonite), with results related to the diffuse double-layer (DDL) model. Clays in which external exchange sites dominated (kaolinite and pyrophyllite) tended to show an overall preference for Na+, with the magnitude of this preference increasing with decreasing ESP. For these external surfaces, increases in ionic strength were found to increase preference for Na+. Although illite (2:1 non-expanding mineral) was expected to be dominated by external surfaces, this clay displayed an overall preference for Ca2+, possibly indicating the opening of quasicrystals and the formation of internal exchange surfaces. For the expanding 2:1 clay, montmorillonite, Na+-Ca2+ exchange varied due to the formation of quasicrystals (and internal exchange surfaces) from individual clay platelets. At small ionic strength and large ESP, the clay platelets dispersed and were dominated by external exchange surfaces (displaying preference for Na+). However, as ionic strength increased and ESP decreased, quasicrystals (and internal exchange surfaces) formed, and preference for Ca2+ increased. Therefore, the relationship between SAR and ESP is not constant and should be determined directly for the soil of interest.

Moneyless business exchange - Practitioners' attitudes to business-to-business barter in Australia

In recent years, domestic business-to-business barter has become institutionalized as an alternative marketing exchange system in Australia, and elsewhere. This article reports the findings of a survey of 164 members of Australia's largest trade exchange, Bartercard There are few, if any, published empirical studies on this topic. This study is exploratory. Most firms surveyed are small firms in the services sectors. Although Bartercard has an extensive membership, trading within the system is limited with most members trading less than once per week and with barter transactions contributing less than 5% of their annual gross sales. The main benefits of membership include new customers and increased sales and networking opportunities. The main limitations include the limited functionality of the trade dollar limited trading opportunities, and practical trading difficulties. In selling, there appears to be no differential between the cash and trade prices, whereas trade dollars are discounted in purchasing. Participants acknowledge that business-to-business barter will remain and grow regardless of cyclical macroeconomic changes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

Charge ordering and antiferromagnetic exchange in layered molecular crystals of the theta type

We consider the electronic properties of layered molecular crystals of the type theta -D(2)A where A is an anion and D is a donor molecule such as bis-(ethylenedithia-tetrathiafulvalene) (BEDT-TTF), which is arranged in the theta -type pattern within the layers. We argue that the simplest strongly correlated electron model that can describe the rich phase diagram of these materials is the extended Hubbard model on the square lattice at one-quarter filling. In the limit where the Coulomb repulsion on a single site is large, the nearest-neighbor Coulomb repulsion V plays a crucial role. When V is much larger than the intermolecular hopping integral t the ground state is an insulator with charge ordering. In this phase antiferromagnetism arises due to a novel fourth-order superexchange process around a plaquette on the square lattice. We argue that the charge ordered phase is destroyed below a critical nonzero value V, of the order of t. Slave-boson theory is used to explicitly demonstrate this for the SU(N) generalization of the model, in the large-N limit. We also discuss the relevance of the model to the all-organic family beta-(BEDT-TTF)(2)SF5YSO3 where Y=CH2CF2, CH2, CHF.