Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

ICICLE: A semantic-based retrieval system for WWW images

In this paper, we present ICICLE (Image ChainNet and Incremental Clustering Engine), a prototype system that we have developed to efficiently and effectively retrieve WWW images based on image semantics. ICICLE has two distinguishing features. First, it employs a novel image representation model called Weight ChainNet to capture the semantics of the image content. A new formula, called list space model, for computing semantic similarities is also introduced. Second, to speed up retrieval, ICICLE employs an incremental clustering mechanism, ICC (Incremental Clustering on ChainNet), to cluster images with similar semantics into the same partition. Each cluster has a summary representative and all clusters' representatives are further summarized into a balanced and full binary tree structure. We conducted an extensive performance study to evaluate ICICLE. Compared with some recently proposed methods, our results show that ICICLE provides better recall and precision. Our clustering technique ICC facilitates speedy retrieval of images without sacrificing recall and precision significantly.

Effects of hydrogen-air non-equilibrium chemistry on the performance of a model scramjet thrust nozzle

Two aspects of hydrogen-air non-equilibrium chemistry related to scramjets are nozzle freezing and a process called 'kinetic afterburning' which involves continuation of combustion after expansion in the nozzle. These effects were investigated numerically and experimentally with a model scramjet combustion chamber and thrust nozzle combination. The overall model length was 0.5m, while precombustion Mach numbers of 3.1 +/- 0.3 and precombustion temperatures ranging from 740K to 1,400K were involved. Nozzle freezing was investigated at precombustion pressures of 190kPa and higher, and it was found that the nozzle thrusts were within 6% of values obtained from finite rate numerical calculations, which were within 7% of equilibrium calculations. When precombustion pressures of 70kPa or less were used, kinetic afterburning was found to be partly responsible for thrust production, in both the numerical calculations and the experiments. Kinetic afterburning offers a means of extending the operating Mach number range of a fixed geometry scramjet.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Quantum-gate characterization in an extended Hilbert space

We describe an approach for characterizing the process performed by a quantum gate using quantum process tomography, by first modeling the gate in an extended Hilbert space, which includes nonqubit degrees of freedom. To prevent unphysical processes from being predicted, present quantum process tomography procedures incorporate mathematical constraints, which make no assumptions as to the actual physical nature of the system being described. By contrast, the procedure presented here assumes a particular class of physical processes, and enforces physicality by fitting the data to this model. This allows quantum process tomography to be performed using a smaller experimental data set, and produces parameters with a direct physical interpretation. The approach is demonstrated by example of mode matching in an all-optical controlled-NOT gate. The techniques described are general and could be applied to other optical circuits or quantum computing architectures.

Phase-space analysis of bosonic spontaneous emission

We present phase-space techniques for the modelling of spontaneous emission in two-level bosonic atoms. The positive-P representation is shown to give a full and complete description within the limits of our model. The Wigner representation, even when truncated at second order, is shown to need a doubling of the phase-space to allow for a positive-definite diffusion matrix in the appropriate Fokker-Planck equation and still fails to agree with the full quantum results of the positive-P representation. We show that quantum statistics and correlations between the ground and excited states affect the dynamics of the emission process, so that it is in general non-exponential. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum phase-space simulations of fermions and bosons

We introduce a unified Gaussian quantum operator representation for fermions and bosons. The representation extends existing phase-space methods to Fermi systems as well as the important case of Fermi-Bose mixtures. It enables simulations of the dynamics and thermal equilibrium states of many-body quantum systems from first principles. As an example, we numerically calculate finite-temperature correlation functions for the Fermi Hubbard model, with no evidence of the Fermi sign problem. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development

Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic switch model of information flow in social networks: Application for virtual circuits to organizational design

Network building and exchange of information by people within networks is crucial to the innovation process. Contrary to older models, in social networks the flow of information is noncontinuous and nonlinear. There are critical barriers to information flow that operate in a problematic manner. New models and new analytic tools are needed for these systems. This paper introduces the concept of virtual circuits and draws on recent concepts of network modelling and design to introduce a probabilistic switch theory that can be described using matrices. It can be used to model multistep information flow between people within organisational networks, to provide formal definitions of efficient and balanced networks and to describe distortion of information as it passes along human communication channels. The concept of multi-dimensional information space arises naturally from the use of matrices. The theory and the use of serial diagonal matrices have applications to organisational design and to the modelling of other systems. It is hypothesised that opinion leaders or creative individuals are more likely to emerge at information-rich nodes in networks. A mathematical definition of such nodes is developed and it does not invariably correspond with centrality as defined by early work on networks.

Understanding sociocognitive space of written discourse: Implications for teaching business writing to Chinese students

Confronted with various issues in teaching business writing to Chinese students in New Zealand, this paper sees the need for bridging the gap between genre-based research and teaching in an intercultural context. Specifically, it develops an intercultural reflective model in the light of Bhatia's sociocognitive genre study as well as cross-cultural persuasion. As an important part of the model, New Zealand and Chinese experts' intracultural and intercultural reflections on business writing are solicited and compared and the theoretical implications for teaching and learning business writing are discussed. It has been found, through a case study of analysing English and Chinese business faxes, this model can offer an in-depth understanding about discursive competence across cultures, and provide a link between genre-based theory, teaching practice and professional expertise.

Classical and quantum dynamics of a model for atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensates

We study a model for a two-mode atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensate. Starting with a classical analysis we determine the phase space fixed points of the system. It is found that bifurcations of the fixed points naturally separate the coupling parameter space into four regions. The different regions give rise to qualitatively different dynamics. We then show that this classification holds true for the quantum dynamics.

Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gaussian phase-space representations for fermions

We introduce a positive phase-space representation for fermions, using the most general possible multimode Gaussian operator basis. The representation generalizes previous bosonic quantum phase-space methods to Fermi systems. We derive equivalences between quantum and stochastic moments, as well as operator correspondences that map quantum operator evolution onto stochastic processes in phase space. The representation thus enables first-principles quantum dynamical or equilibrium calculations in many-body Fermi systems. Potential applications are to strongly interacting and correlated Fermi gases, including coherent behavior in open systems and nanostructures described by master equations. Examples of an ideal gas and the Hubbard model are given, as well as a generic open system, in order to illustrate these ideas.