Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Elite athletes: Why does the 'fire' burn so brightly?

Background and Purpose: What drives some athletes to achieve at the highest level whilst other athletes fail to achieve their physical potential? Why does the ‘fire’ burn so brightly for some elite athletes and not for others? A good understanding of an athlete’s motivation is critical to a coach designing an appropriate motivational climate to realize an athlete’s physical talent. This paper examines the motivational processes of elite athletes within the framework of three major social-cognitive theories of motivation. Method: Participants were five male and five female elite track and field athletes from Australia who had finished in the top ten at either the Olympic Games and/or the World Championships in the last six years. Qualitative data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Results and Discussion: Inductive analyses revealed several major themes associated with the motivational processes of elite athletes: (a) they were highly driven by personal goals and achievement, (b) they had strong self-belief, and (c) track and field was central to their lives. The findings are discussed in light of recent social-cognitive theories of motivation, namely, self-determination theory, the hierarchical model of motivation, and achievement goal theory. Self-determined forms of motivation characterised the elite athletes in this study and, consistent with social-cognitive theories of motivation, it is suggested that goal accomplishment enhances perceptions of competence and consequently promotes self-determined forms of motivation.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Is affective learning really resistant to extinction? Stimulus ratings and affective priming give different answers

Affective learning, the learning of likes and dislikes, is proposed to differ from signal learning, the learning of relationships between events. However, affective learning research varies in the methodology used, and in addition, researchers concerned primarily with affective learning tend to use different paradigms from those concerned with signal learning. The current research used an affective priming task in addition to verbal ratings to assess changes in the valence of neutral geometric shapes in an aversive differential conditioning procedure. After acquisition, affective learning was present as indexed by ratings and affective priming, whereas after extinction, affective learning remained significant only in the ratings. This study suggests that different measures of affective learning may be differentially sensitive to valence, which has implications for studies that employ verbal ratings as the sole measure of affective learning. Moreover, there is no evidence from the current study that affective learning differs from signal learning.

Aquisition and extinction of two characteristics consistent with fear relevance

Fear relevance, the potential of a stimulus to become quickly associated with fear, is a characteristic assumed to have an evolutionary basis and to result in preferential processing. Previous research has shown that fear relevant stimuli share a number of characteristics, negative valence and preferential identification in a visual search task, for instance. The present research examined whether these two characteristics can be acquired by non-fear relevant stimuli (geometric shapes) as a result of Pavlovian fear conditioning. Two experiments employed an aversive learning paradigm with geometric shape CSs and a shock US, with stimulus ratings, affective priming and visual search performance assessed before and after acquisition and after extinction. Differential electrodermal responses, larger during CS1 than CS, were present during acquisition but not during extinction. Affective priming results suggest that the CS1 acquired negative valence during acquisition, which was lost during extinction. However, negative valence as indexed by more negative ratings for CS1 than for CS shapes seemed to survive extinction. Preferential attentional processing as indexed by faster detection of CS1 among CS shapes than vice versa on the visual search task also remained. The current research confirmed that characteristics of fear relevant stimuli can be acquired in an aversive learning episode and that they may be extinguished. This supports the proposal that fear relevance may be malleable through learning.

Extinction of affective learning: No evidence for dual process accounts of human learning

The acquisition and extinction of affective valence to neutral geometrical shape conditional stimuli was investigated in three experiments. Experiment 1 employed a differential conditioning procedure with aversive shock USs. Differential electrodermal responding was evident during acquisition and lost during extinction. As indexed by verbal ratings, the CS1 acquired negative valence during acquisition,which was reduced after extinction. Affective priming, a reaction time based demand free measure of stimulus valence, failed to provide evidence for affective learning. Experiment 2 employed pictures of happy and angry faces as USs.Valence ratings after acquisitionweremore positive for theCS paired with happy faces (CS-H) and less positive for the CS paired with angry faces (CS-A) than during baseline. Extinction training reduced the extent of acquired valence significantly for both CSs, however, ratings of the CS-A remained different from baseline. Affective priming confirmed these results yielding differences between CS-A and CS-H after acquisition for pleasant and unpleasant targets, but for pleasant targets only after extinction. Experiment 3 replicated the design of Experiment 2, but presented the US pictures backwardly masked. Neither rating nor affective priming measures yielded any evidence for affective learning. The present results confirm across two different experimental procedures that, contrary to predictions from dual process accounts of human learning, affective learning is subject to extinction.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Seed dormancy and germination responses of nine Australian fire ephemerals

Fire ephemerals are short-lived plants with seeds that persist in the soil and germinate after a fire or physical soil disturbance. Ex situ germination of many Australian fire ephemerals has previously been difficult. Dormancy was present in most of the nine fire ephemerals examined. Alyogyne hakeifolia (Giord.) Alef. and Alyogyne huegelii (Endl.) Fryxell (Malvaceae) seeds had physical and possibly also physiological dormancy, Actinotus leucocephalus Benth. (Apiaceae) seeds had morphophysiological dormancy, Austrostipa compressa (R.Br.) S.W.L. Jacobs & J. Everett and Austrostipa macalpinei (Reader) S.W.L. Jacobs & J. Everett (Poaceae) seeds were either non-dormant or possessed physiological dormancy, and seeds of all remaining species possessed physiological dormancy. A proportion of the Alyogyne hakeifolia, Alyogyne huegelii, Austrostipa compressa and Austrostipa macalpinei seed populations were non-dormant because some seeds could germinate at the various incubation temperatures without further treatment. At 20 degrees C, artificial methods of inducing germination such as manual or acid scarification were among the optimal treatments for Austrostipa compressa, Austrostipa macalpinei, Alyogyne huegelii, Actinotus leucocephalus and Grevillea scapigera A.S. George (Proteaceae), and gibberellic acid induced maximum germination of Tersonia cyathiflora (Fenzl) J.W. Green (Gyrostemonaceae) seeds. Heat (70 degrees C for 1 h) and smoke water was one of the most effective treatments for germinating Actinotus leucocephalus and Codonocarpus cotinifolius (Desf.) F. Muell. (Gyrostemonaceae) seeds. Germination of Grevillea scapigera, Codonocarpus cotinifolius, Gyrostemon racemiger H. Walter (Gyrostemonaceae) and Tersonia cyathiflora did not exceed 40% and may require other treatments to overcome dormancy. Although the nine fire ephemerals examined require fire to germinate under natural conditions, a range of germination responses and dormancy types was observed.

Dormancy release in Australian fire ephemeral seeds during burial increases germination response to smoke water or heat

Fire ephemerals are short-lived plants that primarily germinate after fire. Fresh and laboratory-stored seeds are difficult to germinate ex situ, even in response to fire-related cues such as heat and smoke. Seeds of eight Australian fire ephemeral species were buried in unburnt and recently burnt sites of natural bushland during autumn. Seeds were exhumed after 6 and 12 months and incubated in water and smoke water, either with or without a heat treatment at 70 degrees C for 1 h. Generally, germination did not increase after 6 months of burial, but after 12 months of burial germination was enhanced in seven of the eight species. Actinotus leucocephalus produced higher germination following 12 months of burial without any further treatment, and smoke water and heat further improved germination. The four Gyrostemonaceae species, Codonocarpus cotinifolius, Gyrostemon racemiger, Gyrostemon ramulosus and Tersonia cyathiflora, only germinated in the presence of smoke water, and their germination was enhanced by burial. Burial improved germination in response to a heat treatment in Grevillea scapigera and Alyogyne huegelii seeds, but did not enhance Alyogyne hakeifolia germination. During concurrent dry laboratory storage of seeds at 15 degrees C, only Actinotus leucocephalus produced increased germination in response to smoke water and heat over time. In summary, soil burial can alter the dormancy status of a number of Australian fire ephemeral seeds, rendering them more responsive to germination cues such as smoke water and heat. The requirement for a period of burial before seeds become responsive to smoke and/or heat would ensure that seeds persist in the soil until a subsequent fire, when there is an increase in nutrients available for growth and reduced competition from other plants.

Waterlogging and fire impacts on nitrogen availability and utilization in a subtropical wet heathland (wallum)

Protein, amino acids and ammonium were the main forms of soluble soil nitrogen in the soil solution of a subtropical heathland (wallum). After fire, soil ammonium and nitrate increased 90- and 60-fold, respectively. Despite this increase in nitrate availability after fire, wallum species exhibited uniformly low nitrate reductase activities and low leaf and xylem nitrate, During waterlogging soil amino acids increased, particularly gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) which accounted for over 50% of amino nitrogen. Non-mycorrhizal wallum species were significantly (P < 0.05) N-15-enriched (0.3-4.3 parts per thousand) compared to species with mycorrhizal associations (ericoid-type, ecto-, va-mycorrhizal) which were strongly depleted in N-15 (-6.3 to -1.8 parts per thousand). Lignotubers and roots had delta(15)N signatures similar to that of the leaves of respective species. The exceptions were fine roots of ecto-, ecto/va-, and ericoid type mycorrhizal species which were enriched in N-15 (0.1-2 4 parts per thousand). The delta(15)N signatures of delta(15)N(total soil N) and delta(15)N(soil NH4+) were in the range 3.7-4.5 parts per thousand, whereas delta(15)N(soil NO3-) was significantly (P < 0.05) more enriched in N-15 (9.2-9.8 parts per thousand). It is proposed that there is discrimination against N-15 during transfer of nitrogen from fungal to plant partner. Roots of selected species incorporated nitrogen sources in the order of preference: ammonium > glycine > nitrate. The exception were proteoid roots of Hakea (Proteaceae) which incorporated equal amounts of glycine and ammonium.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.