Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spatial statistic to determine appropriate field sampling size for linking image and field data

Proceedings of the 11th Australasian Remote Sensing and Photogrammetry Conference

Field test of a model of migration of moths (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in inland Australia

A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.

Monitoring the condition of savanna riparian zones in Northern Australia using high spatial resolution imagery and a field based rapid assessment method

Government agencies responsible for riparian environments are assessing the combined utility of field survey and remote sensing for mapping and monitoring indicators of riparian zone condition. The objective of this work was to compare the Tropical Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition (TRARC) method to a satellite image based approach. TRARC was developed for rapid assessment of the environmental condition of savanna riparian zones. The comparison assessed mapping accuracy, representativeness of TRARC assessment, cost-effectiveness, and suitability for multi-temporal analysis. Two multi-spectral QuickBird images captured in 2004 and 2005 and coincident field data covering sections of the Daly River in the Northern Territory, Australia were used in this work. Both field and image data were processed to map riparian health indicators (RHIs) including percentage canopy cover, organic litter, canopy continuity, stream bank stability, and extent of tree clearing. Spectral vegetation indices, image segmentation and supervised classification were used to produce RHI maps. QuickBird image data were used to examine if the spatial distribution of TRARC transects provided a representative sample of ground based RHI measurements. Results showed that TRARC transects were required to cover at least 3% of the study area to obtain a representative sample. The mapping accuracy and costs of the image based approach were compared to those of the ground based TRARC approach. Results proved that TRARC was more cost-effective at smaller scales (1-100km), while image based assessment becomes more feasible at regional scales (100-1000km). Finally, the ability to use both the image and field based approaches for multi-temporal analysis of RHIs was assessed. Change detection analysis demonstrated that image data can provide detailed information on gradual change, while the TRARC method was only able to identify more gross scale changes. In conclusion, results from both methods were considered to complement each other if used at appropriate spatial scales.

Continuous high-frequency turbulence and suspended sediment concentration measurements in an upper estuary

The present study details new turbulence field measurements conducted continuously at high frequency for 50 hours in the upper zone of a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides. Acoustic Doppler velocimetry was used, and the signal was post-processed thoroughly. The suspended sediment concentration wad further deduced from the acoustic backscatter intensity. The field data set demonstrated some unique flow features of the upstream estuarine zone, including some low-frequency longitudinal oscillations induced by internal and external resonance. A striking feature of the data set is the large fluctuations in all turbulence properties and suspended sediment concentration during the tidal cycle. This feature has been rarely documented.

High-Frequency Turbulence and Sediment Flux Measurements in an Upper Estuarine Zone

In natural estuaries, the predictions of scalar dispersion are rarely predicted accurately because of a lack of fundamental understanding of the turbulence structure in estuaries. Herein detailed turbulence field measurements were conducted continuously at high frequency for 50 hours in the upper zone of a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides. Acoustic Doppler velocimetry was deemed the most appropriate measurement technique for such shallow water depths (less than 0.4 m at low tides), and a thorough post-processing technique was applied. In addition, some experiments were conducted in laboratory under controlled conditions using water and soil samples collected in the estuary to test the relationship between acoustic backscatter strength and suspended sediment load. A striking feature of the field data set was the large fluctuations in all turbulence characteristics during the tidal cycle, including the suspended sediment flux. This feature was rarely documented.

Remotely sensed estimates of vegetation structural characteristics in restored wetlands, Southern California

Traditional field sampling approaches for ecological studies of restored habitat can only cover small areas in detail, con be time consuming, and are often invasive and destructive. Spatially extensive and non-invasive remotely sensed data can make field sampling more focused and efficient. The objective of this work was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of hand-held and airborne remotely sensed data to estimate vegetation structural parameters for an indicator plant species in a restored wetland. High spatial resolution, digital, multispectral camera images were captured from an aircraft over Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California) during each growing season between 1992-1996. Field data were collected concurrently, which included plant heights, proportional ground cover and canopy architecture type, and spectral radiometer measurements. Spartina foliosa (Pacific cordgrass) is the indicator species for the restoration monitoring. A conceptual model summarizing the controls on the spectral reflectance properties of Pacific cordgrass was established. Empirical models were developed relating the stem length, density, and canopy architecture of cordgrass to normalized-difference-vegetation-index values. The most promising results were obtained from empirical estimates of total ground cover using image data that had been stratified into high, middle, and low marsh zones. As part of on-going restoration monitoring activities, this model is being used to provide maps of estimated vegetation cover.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Sudden drawdown and drainage of a horizontal aquifer

Drainage of a saturated horizontal aquifer following a sudden drawdown is reanalyzed using the Boussinesq equation. The effect of the finite length of the aquifer is considered in detail. An analytical approximation based on a superposition principle yields a very good estimate of the outflow when compared to accurate numerical solutions. An illustration of the new analytical approach to analyze basin-scale field data is used to demonstrate possible field applications of the new solution.

Infiltration from surface and buried point sources: The average wetting water content

The assumption in analytical solutions for flow from surface and buried point sources of an average water content, (θ) over bar, behind the wetting front is examined. Some recent work has shown that this assumption fitted some field data well. Here we calculated (θ) over bar using a steady state solution based on the work by Raats [1971] and an exponential dependence of the diffusivity upon the water content. This is compared with a constant value of (θ) over bar calculated from an assumption of a hydraulic conductivity at the wetting front of 1 mm day(-1) and the water content at saturation. This comparison was made for a wide range of soils. The constant (θ) over bar generally underestimated (θ) over bar at small wetted radii and overestimated (θ) over bar at large radii. The crossover point between under and overestimation changed with both soil properties and flow rate. The largest variance occurred for coarser texture soils at low-flow rates. At high-flow rates in finer-textured soils the use of a constant (θ) over bar results in underestimation of the time for the wetting front to reach a particular radius. The value of (θ) over bar is related to the time at which the wetting front reaches a given radius. In coarse-textured soils the use of a constant value of (θ) over bar can result in an error of the time when the wetting front reaches a particular radius, as large as 80% at low-flow rates and large radii.

Numerical modelling of tide-induced beach water table fluctuations

Field studies have shown that the elevation of the beach groundwater table varies with the tide and such variations affect significantly beach erosion or accretion. In this paper, we present a BEM (Boundary Element Method) model for simulating the tidal fluctuation of the beach groundwater table. The model solves the two-dimensional flow equation subject to free and moving boundary conditions, including the seepage dynamics at the beach face. The simulated seepage faces were found to agree with the predictions of a simple model (Turner, 1993). The advantage of the present model is, however, that it can be used with little modification to simulate more complicated cases, e.g., surface recharge from rainfall and drainage in the aquifer may be included (the latter is related to beach dewatering technique). The model also simulated well the field data of Nielsen (1990). In particular, the model replicated three distinct features of local water table fluctuations: steep rising phase versus flat falling phase, amplitude attenuation and phase lagging.

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.

The anammox case - A new experimental manifesto for microbiological eco-physiology

The anaerobic ammonium oxidation process is a new process for ammonia removal from wastewater. It is also a new microbial physiology that was previously believed to be impossible. The identification of Candidatus Brocadia anammoxidans and its relatives as the responsible bacteria was only possible with the development of a new experimental approach. That approach is the focus of this paper. The approach is a modernisation of the Winogradsky/Beyerinck strategy of selective enrichment and is based on the introduction of the molecular toolbox and modern bioreactor engineering to microbial ecology. It consists of five steps: (1) postulation of an ecological niche based on thermodynamic considerations and macro-ecological field data; (2) engineering of this niche into a laboratory bioreactor for enrichment culture; (3) black-box physiological characterisation of the enrichment culture as a whole; (4) phylogenetic characterisation of the enriched community using molecular tools; (5) physical separation of the dominant members of the enrichment culture using gradient centrifugation and the identification of the species of interest in accordance with Koch's postulates; (6) verification of the in situ importance of these species in the actual ecosystems. The power of this approach is illustrated with a case study: the identification of the planctomycetes responsible for anaerobic ammonium oxidation. We argue that this was impossible using molecular ecology or conventional 'cultivation based techniques' alone. We suggest that the approach might also be used for the microbiological study of many interesting microbes such as anaerobic methane oxidisers.