Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

Group outside the Sub Inspector Office during Ky visit

Group of people outside the Sub Inspector Office during visit of former South Vietnamese vice president Nguyen Cao Ky to Brisbane, Australia in January 1967.

Street elevation, Office and Shops Boroko

As seen from adjacent street corner.

Street elevation, Office and Shops Boroko

As seen from road.

Side elevation, Office and Shops Boroko

As seen from adjacent block.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of exterior wall to warehouse.

Downpipes, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of downpipes and drainage grill.

PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View past tiered amphitheatre and offices above to air strip beyond.

View along western elevation, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View past timber blinds to balcony and timber sunscreens.

Under construction, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of post being hoisted into position during construction.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of warehouse exterior.

Pole detail, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of poles used in construction. Poles were spliced in their length with steel bars (like 3 pin plugs) and these joints were restrained from splitting with steel strap belts. The belts were tightened with opposing wedges like the old Greene & Greene wrought iron detail.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of warehouse exterior.