Population versus clinical view of case fatality from acute coronary heart disease - Results from the WHO MONICA Project 1985-1990

Background The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.

Case fatality after an acute cardiac event: the effect of smoking and alcohol consumption

The objective of this study was to use a population-based register of acute cardiac events to investigate the association between survival after an acute event and history of smoking and alcohol consumption. The population was all residents of the Lower Hunter Region of Australia aged 25 to 69 years who suffered myocardial infarction or sudden cardiac death between 1986 and 1994. Among 10,170 events, 2504 resulted in death within 28 days. After adjusting for sex, age and medical history, current smokers had a similar risk of dying after an acute cardiac event to never-smokers [odds ratio (OR)=1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94-1.29]. People who consumed more than 8 alcoholic drinks per day on more than 2 days per week (OR=1.93, 95% CI 1.39-2.69) and former moderate to heavy drinkers (OR=4.59, 95% CI 3.65-5.76) were more likely to die than people who were nondrinkers. The results of this large community study, suggesting no effect of smoking on case fatality and an increased risk of death after an acute cardiac event for heavy drinkers and former moderate to heavy drinkers, highlight the importance of a population view of case fatality. These results can also shed some light on reasons for the paradoxical results from clinical trials. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcome with calcium channel antagonists after myocardial infarction: A community-based study

Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk of death and recurrent myocardial infarction associated with the use of calcium antagonists after myocardial infarction in a population-based cohort study. Background. Calcium antagonists are commonly prescribed after myocardial infarction, but their long-term effects are not well established. Methods. Patients 25 to 69 years old with a suspected myocardial infarction were identified and followed up through a community-based register of myocardial infarction and cardiac death (part of the World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease [MONICA] Project in Newcastle, Australia). Data were collected by review of medical records, in-hospital interview and review of death certificates. Results. From 1989 to 1993, 3,982 patients with a nonfatal suspected myocardial infarction were enrolled in the study. At hospital discharge, 1,001 patients were treated with beta-adrenergic blocking agents, 923 with calcium antagonists, 711 with both beta-blockers and calcium antagonists and 1,346 with neither drug. Compared with patients given beta-blockers, patients given calcium antagonists were more likely to suffer myocardial infarction or cardiac death (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 1.9), cardiac death (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.7) and death from all causes (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.6). Compared with patients given neither beta-blockers nor calcium antagonists, patients given calcium antagonists were not at increased risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.3), cardiac death (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2) or death from all causes (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.3). No excess in risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death was observed among patients taking verapamil (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.6), diltiazem (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4) or nifedipine (RR 1.3, 95% CI 0.7 to 2.2) compared,vith patients taking neither calcium antagonists nor beta-blockers. Conclusions. These results are consistent with randomized trial data showing benefit from beta blockers after myocardial infarction and no effect on the risk of recurrent myocardial infarction and death with the use of calcium antagonists. Comparisons between beta-blockers and calcium antagonists favor beta blockers because of the beneficial effects of beta-blockers and not because of adverse effects of calcium antagonists. (C) 1998 by the American College of Cardiology.

Reducing coronary heart disease in the Australian Coalfields: evaluation of a 10-year community intervention

Coronary heart disease is a leading cause of death in Australia with the Coalfields district of New South Wales having one of the country's highest rates. Identification of the Coalfields epidemic in the 1970's led to the formation of a community awareness program in the late 1980's (the healthy heart support group) followed by a more intense community action program in 1990, the Coalfields Healthy Heartbeat (CHHB). CHHB is a coalition of community members, local government officers, health workers and University researchers. We evaluate the CHHB program, examining both the nature and sustainability of heart health activities undertaken, as well as trends in risk factor levels and rates of coronary events in the Coalfields in comparison with nearby local government areas. Process data reveal difficulties mobilising the community as a whole; activities had to be selected for interested subgroups such as families of heart disease patients, school children, retired people and women concerned with family nutrition and body maintenance. Outcome data show a significantly larger reduction in case fatality for Coalfields men (although nonfatal heart attacks did not decline) while changes in risk factors levels were comparable with surrounding areas. We explain positive responses to the CHHB by schools, heart attack survivors and women interested in body maintenance in terms of the meaning these subgroups find in health promotion discourses based on their embodied experiences. When faced with a threat to one's identity, health discourse suddenly becomes meaningful along with the regimens for health improvement. General public disinterest in heart health promotion is examined in the context of historical patterns of outsiders criticising the lifestyle of miners, an orientation toward communal lather than individual responsibility for health (i.e, community 'owned' emergency services and hospitals) and anger about risks from environmental hazards imposed by industrialists. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

Heroin overdose: causes and consequences

Over the past decade fatal opioid overdose has emerged as a major public health issue internationally. This paper examines the risk factors for overdose from a biomedical perspective. while significant risk factors for opioid overdose fatality are well recognized, the mechanism of fatal overdose remains unclear. Losses of tolerance and concomitant use of alcohol and other CNS depressants clearly play a major role in fatality; howeve, such risk factors do not account for the strong age and gender patterns observed consistently among victims of overdose. There is evidence that systemic disease may be more prevalent in users at greatest risk of overdose. We hypothesize that pulmonary and hepatic dysfunction resulting from such disease may increase susceptibility to both fatal and non-fatal overdose. Sequelae of non-fatal overdose are recognized in the clinical literature but few epidemiological data exist describing the burden of morbidity arising from such sequelae. The potential for overdose to cause persisting morbidity is reviewed.

Prior calcium channel blockade and short-term survival following acute myocardial infarction

There is concern over the safety of calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in acute coronary disease. We sought to determine if patients taking calcium channel blockers (CCBs) at the time of admission with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) had a higher case-fatality compared with those taking beta-blockers or neither medication. Clinical and drug treatment variables at the time of hospital admission predictive of survival at 28 days were examined in a community-based registry of patients aged under 65 years admitted to hospital for suspected AMI in Perth, Australia, between 1984 and 1993. Among 7766 patients, 1291 (16.6%) were taking a CCB and 1259 (16.2%) a betablocker alone at hospital admission. Patients taking CCBs had a worse clinical profile than those taking a beta-blocker alone or neither drug (control group), and a higher unadjusted 28-day mortality (17.6% versus 9.3% and 11.1% respectively, both P < 0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity with respect to mortality between nifedipine, diltiazem, or verapamil when used alone, or with a beta-blocker. After adjustment for factors predictive of death at 28 days, patients taking a CCB were found not to have an excess chance of death compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.87, 1.30), whereas those taking a beta-blocker alone had a lower odds of death (OR 0.75, 95% CI; 0.59, 0.94). These results indicate that established calcium channel blockade is not associated with an excess risk of death following AMI once other differences between patients are taken into account, but neither does it have the survival advantage seen with prior beta-blocker therapy.

Ten-year survival after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Very few studies have provided information regarding long-term prognosis after stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival over 10 years among patients with first-ever stroke from a population-based study in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who were resident in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years after the index event. Results-A total of 251 patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 244 (97%) were followed up at 10 years, by which time 197 (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74 to 84) had died. The major causes of death were the direct effects of the initial stroke (27%; 95% CI, 21 to 33) and cardiovascular disease (26%; 95% CI, 20 to 32). Among 1-year survivors of stroke, the average annual case fatality was 4.8%, which was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7) times greater than for the general population of the same age and sex. Conclusions-One in 5 patients with first-ever stroke survived to 10 years. The average annual case fatality was 4.8% between years 1 and 10 after stroke, which was twice that expected for the general population. Vascular disease is the major cause of death among long-term survivors of stroke.

Ten-year risk of first recurrent stroke and disability after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event. Results-Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was approximate to4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92). Conclusions-Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.

Current smoking and the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction in the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Mild myocardial infarction - A classification problem in epidemiologic studies

In studies assessing the trends in coronary events, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants of CArdiovascular disease), the main emphasis has been on coronary deaths and non-fatal definite myocardial infarctions (MI). It is, however, possible that the proportion of milder MIs may be increasing because of improvements in treatment and reductions in levels of risk factors. We used the MI register data of the WHO MONICA Project to investigate several definitions for mild non-fatal MIs that would be applicable in various settings and could be used to assess trends in milder coronary events. Of 38 populations participating in the WHO MONICA MI register study, more than half registered a sufficiently wide spectrum of events that it was possible to identify subsets of milder cases. The event rates and case fatality rates of MI are clearly dependent on the spectrum of non-fatal MIs, which are included. On clinical grounds we propose that the original MONICA category ''non-fatal possible MI'' could bt:divided into two groups: ''non fatal probable MI'' and ''prolonged chest pain.'' Non-fatal probable MIs are cases, which in addition to ''typical symptoms'' have electrocardiogram (EGG) or enzyme changes suggesting cardiac ischemia, but not severe enough to fulfil the criteria for non-fatal definite MI In more than half of the MONICA Collaborating Centers, the registration of MI covers these milder events reasonably well. Proportions of non-fatal probable MIs vary less between populations than do proportions of non fatal possible MIs. Also rates of non-fatal probable MI are somewhat more highly correlated with rates of fatal events and non-fatal definite MI. These findings support the validity of the category of non-fatal probable MI. In each center the increase in event rates and the decrease in case-fatality due to the inclusion of non-fatal probable MI was lar er for women than men. For the WHO MONICA Project and other epidemiological studies the proposed category of non-fatal probable MIs can be used for assessing trends in rates of milder MI. Copyright (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.