A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change

We investigate the size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change. This involves examining whether the size results are sensitive to both the number of individual frequencies estimated and the spectral shape adopted under the null hypothesis. The power tests examine whether the test has good power to detect shifts in both spectral position (variance) and spectral shape (autocovariance structure).

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of the genetic covariance between male and female components of mate recognition: An experimental test

The evolution of a positive genetic correlation between male and female components of mate recognition systems will result as a consequence of assortative mating and, in particular, is central to a number of theories of sexual selection. Although the existence of such genetic correlations has been investigated in a number of taxa, it has yet to be shown that such correlations evolve and whether they may evolve as rapidly as suggested by sexual selection models. In this study, I used a hybridization experiment to disrupt natural mate recognition systems and then observed the subsequent evolutionary dynamics of the genetic correlation between male and female components for 56 generations in hybrids between Drosophila serrata and Drosophila birchii. The genetic correlation between male and female components evolved from 0.388 at generation 5 to 1.017 at generation 37 and then declined to -0.040 after a further 19 generations. These results indicated that the genetic basis of the mate recognition system in the hybrid populations evolved rapidly. The initial rapid increase in the genetic correlation was consistent with the classic assumption that male and female components will coevolve under sexual selection. The subsequent decline in genetic correlation may be attributable to the fixation of major genes or, alternatively, may be a result of a cyclic evolutionary change in mate recognition.

Natural selection and quantitative genetics of life-history traits in Western women: A twin study

Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection Will cause a change among women in contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the baby boom phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.

Bayesian inferences on the recent island colonization history by the bird Zosterops lateralis lateralis

The founding of new populations by small numbers of colonists has been considered a potentially important mechanism promoting evolutionary change in island populations. Colonizing species, such as members of the avian species complex Zosterops lateralis, have been used to support this idea. A large amount of background information on recent colonization history is available for one Zosterops subspecies, Z. lateralis lateralis, providing the opportunity to reconstruct the population dynamics of its colonization sequence. We used a Bayesian approach to combine historical and demographic information available on Z. l. lateralis with genotypic data from six microsatellite loci, and a rejection algorithm to make simultaneous inferences on the demographic parameters describing the recent colonization history of this subspecies in four southwest Pacific islands. Demographic models assuming mutation–drift equilibrium or a large number of founders were better supported than models assuming founder events for three of four recently colonized island populations. Posterior distributions of demographic parameters supported (i) a large stable effective population size of several thousands individuals with point estimates around 4000–5000; (ii) a founder event of very low intensity with a large effective number of founders around 150–200 individuals for each island in three of four islands, suggesting the colonization of those islands by one flock of large size or several flocks of average size; and (iii) a founder event of higher intensity on Norfolk Island with an effective number of founders around 20 individuals, suggesting colonization by a single flock of moderate size. Our inferences on demographic parameters, especially those on the number of founders, were relatively insensitive to the precise choice of prior distributions for microsatellite mutation processes and demographic parameters, suggesting that our analysis provides a robust description of the recent colonization history of the subspecies.

A framework for the study of genetic variation in migratory behaviour

Evolutionary change results from selection acting on genetic variation. For migration to be successful, many different aspects of an animal's physiology and behaviour need to function in a co-coordinated way. Changes in one migratory trait are therefore likely to be accompanied by changes in other migratory and life-history traits. At present, we have some knowledge of the pressures that operate at the various stages of migration, but we know very little about the extent of genetic variation in various aspects of the migratory syndrome. As a consequence, our ability to predict which species is capable of what kind of evolutionary change, and at which rate, is limited. Here, we review how our evolutionary understanding of migration may benefit from taking a quantitative-genetic approach and present a framework for studying the causes of phenotypic variation. We review past research, that has mainly studied single migratory traits in captive birds, and discuss how this work could be extended to study genetic variation in the wild and to account for genetic correlations and correlated selection. In the future, reaction-norm approaches may become very important, as they allow the study of genetic and environmental effects on phenotypic expression within a single framework, as well as of their interactions. We advocate making more use of repeated measurements on single individuals to study the causes of among-individual variation in the wild, as they are easier to obtain than data on relatives and can provide valuable information for identifying and selecting traits. This approach will be particularly informative if it involves systematic testing of individuals under different environmental conditions. We propose extending this research agenda by using optimality models to predict levels of variation and covariation among traits and constraints. This may help us to select traits in which we might expect genetic variation, and to identify the most informative environmental axes. We also recommend an expansion of the passerine model, as this model does not apply to birds, like geese, where cultural transmission of spatio-temporal information is an important determinant of migration patterns and their variation.

An evolutionary economic perspective on technical change and adjustment in cane harvesting systems in the Australian sugar industry

Australian sugar-producing regions have differed in terms of the extent and rate of incorporation of new technology into harvesting systems. The Mackay sugar industry has lagged behind most other sugar-producing regions in this regard. The reasons for this are addressed by invoking an evolutionary economics perspective. The development of harvesting systems, and the role of technology in shaping them, is mapped and interpreted using the concept of path dependency. Key events in the evolution of harvesting systems are identified, which show how the past has shaped the regional development of harvesting systems. From an evolutionary economics perspective, the outcomes observed are the end result of a specific history.

The evolutionary history of Symbiodinium and scleractinian hosts - Symbiosis, diversity, and the effect of climate change

Marine invertebrates representing at least five phyla are symbiotic with dinoflagellates from the genus Symbiodinium. This group of single-celled protists was once considered to be a single pandemic species, Symbiodinium microadriaticum. Molecular investigations over the past 25 years have revealed, however, that Symbiodinium is a diverse group of organisms with at least eight (A-H) divergent clades that in turn contain multiple molecular subclade types. The diversity within this genus may subsequently determine the response of corals to normal and stressful conditions, leading to the proposal that the symbiosis may impart unusually rapid adaptation to environmental change by the metazoan host. These questions have added importance due to the critical challenges that corals and the reefs they build face as a consequence of current rapid climate change. This review outlines our current understanding of the diverse genus Symbiodinium and explores the ability of this genus and its symbioses to adapt to rapid environmental change. (c) 2006 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary conservation of the membrane fusion machine

Recent structural studies of proteins mediating membrane fusion reveal intriguing similarities between diverse viral and mammalian systems. Particularly striking is the close similarity between the transmembrane envelope glycoproteins from the retrovirus HTLV-1 and the filovirus Ebola. These similarities suggest similar mechanisms of membrane fusion. The model that fits most currently available data suggests fusion activation in viral systems is driven by a symmetrical conformational change triggered by an activation event such as receptor binding or a pH change. The mammalian vesicle fusion mediated by the SNARE protein complex most likely occurs by a similar mechanism but without symmetry constraints.

Testing the relationship between morphological and molecular rates of change along phylogenies

Molecular evolution has been considered to be essentially a stochastic process, little influenced by the pace of phenotypic change. This assumption was challenged by a study that demonstrated an association between rates of morphological and molecular change estimated for total-evidence phylogenies, a finding that led some researchers to challenge molecular date estimates of major evolutionary radiations. Here we show that Omland's (1997) result is probably due to methodological bias, particularly phylogenetic nonindependence, rather than being indicative of an underlying evolutionary phenomenon. We apply three new methods specifically designed to overcome phylogenetic bias to 13 published phylogenetic datasets for vertebrate taxa, each of which includes both morphological characters and DNA sequence data. We find no evidence of an association between rates of molecular and morphological rates of change.

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.