Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The behaviour of the rare earth elements during estuarine mixing-revisited

Complete rare earth element (except Eu) and Y concentrations from the estuarine mixing zone (salinity =0.2 to 33) of Elimbah Creek, Queensland, Australia, were measured by quadrupole ICP-MS without preconcentration. High sampling density in the low salinity regime along with high quality data allow accurate tracing of the development of the typical marine rare earth element anomalies as well as Y/Ho fractionation. Over the entire estuary, the rare earth elements are strongly removed relative to a freshwater endmember (60-80% removal). This large overall removal occurs despite a strong remineralisation peak (190% for La, 130% for Y relative to the freshwater endmember) in the mid-salinity zone. Removal and remineralisation are accompanied by fractionation of the original (freshwater) rare earth element pattern, resulting in light rare earth element depletion. Estuarine fractionation generates a large positive La anomaly and a superchondritic Y/Ho ratio. Conversely, we observe no evidence to support the generation of the negative Ce anomaly in the estuary. With the exception of Ce, the typical marine rare earth element features can thus be attributed to estuarine mixing processes. The persistence of these features in hydrogenous sediments for at least 3.71 Ga highlights the importance of estuarine processes for marine chemistry on geological timescales. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.