Classifying an opponent's behaviour in robot soccer

This paper illustrates the prediction of opponent behaviour in a competitive, highly dynamic, multi-agent and partially observableenvironment, namely RoboCup small size league robot soccer. The performance is illustrated in the context of the highly successful robot soccer team, the RoboRoos. The project is broken into three tasks; classification of behaviours, modelling and prediction of behaviours and integration of the predictions into the existing planning system. A probabilistic approach is taken to dealing with the uncertainty in the observations and with representing the uncertainty in the prediction of the behaviours. Results are shown for a classification system using a Naïve Bayesian Network that determines the opponent’s current behaviour. These results are compared to an expert designed fuzzy behaviour classification system. The paper illustrates how the modelling system will use the information from behaviour classification to produce probability distributions that model the manner with which the opponents perform their behaviours. These probability distributions are show to match well with the existing multi-agent planning system (MAPS) that forms the core of the RoboRoos system.

Alternatives to peace keeping in Korea: the role of non-state actors and face-to-face encounters

Korea is one of the world's most volatile areas, not least because traditional UN mediation and peacekeeping missions are impossible. Having intervened in the Korean War on behalf of the southern side, the UN is a party to the conflict, rather than a neutral arbiter. The situation is particularly problematic because political interactions are characterized by a high degree of state-control over security policy. In both parts of the peninsula the state has, at least until recently, exercised the exclusive right to deal with the opponent on the other side of the hermetically divided peninsula. Given these domestic and international constrains, alternative approaches to conflict resolution are urgently needed. The recently proliferating literature on human security offers possible solutions, for it urges policy makers to view security beyond the conventional military-based defence of the state and its territory. Using such a conceptual framework, the essay assesses the potential significance non-state interactions between North and South, particularly those that promote communication, information exchange and face-to-face encounters. Even though these interactions remain limited, they are of crucial importance, for they provide an opportunity to reduce the stereotypical threat images that continue to fuel conflict on the peninsula.

Experience overrides colour in lizard contests

We examined the role of conspicuous coloration in male-male contests for two species of Australian dragon lizards, Ctenophortis decresii and C. vadnappa, in which conspicuous coloration has a demonstrated predation cost. We conducted contests in which the overall conspicuousness of male coloration was manipulated using paints that matched the spectral reflectance of the lizards, as well as natural (control) contests. There was little evidence for an influence of colour on contest outcome or aggression levels for either species when all experiments were considered. However, we found a significant effect of trial order and experience on contest outcome and aggression levels (the same pair of males was used for both types of contest), despite a 2-3 week interval between contests. When we examined only the first trial between unfamiliar males, we found that male C. vadnappa that had been painted to appear more conspicuous consistently won. Comparison with the natural trials suggests that the aspect of colour manipulation that was responsible for this result was the 'hue' of the throat: males with yellower throats consistently beat males with bluer throats in both natural and painted trials. The difference in coloration of flank markings also predicted the difference in aggression scores between contestants in the natural trials. These results suggest that although colour is important in opponent assessment and in determining contest outcome in C vadnappa, previous agonistic experience can override the effects of colour and have a long-lasting influence on aggressive behaviour.

Parapsychology on the couch: The psychology of occult belief in Germany, c. 1870-1939

This article considers the attempts of academic psychologists and critical occultists in Germany during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries to construct a psychology of occult belief. While they claimed that the purpose of this new subdiscipline was to help evaluate the work of occult researchers, the emergence of a psychology of occult belief in Germany served primarily to pathologize parapsychology and its practitioners. Not to be outdone, however, parapsychologists argued that their adversaries suffered from a morbid inability to accept the reality of the paranormal. Unable to resolve through experimental means the dispute over who should be allowed to mold the public's understanding of the occult, both sides resorted to defaming their opponent. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling and exploiting behavior patterns in dynamic environments

This paper presents a new approach to improving the effectiveness of autonomous systems that deal with dynamic environments. The basis of the approach is to find repeating patterns of behavior in the dynamic elements of the system, and then to use predictions of the repeating elements to better plan goal directed behavior. It is a layered approach involving classifying, modeling, predicting and exploiting. Classifying involves using observations to place the moving elements into previously defined classes. Modeling involves recording features of the behavior on a coarse grained grid. Exploitation is achieved by integrating predictions from the model into the behavior selection module to improve the utility of the robot's actions. This is in contrast to typical approaches that use the model to select between different strategies or plays. Three methods of adaptation to the dynamic features of the environment are explored. The effectiveness of each method is determined using statistical tests over a number of repeated experiments. The work is presented in the context of predicting opponent behavior in the highly dynamic and multi-agent robot soccer domain (RoboCup)