Mutation analysis to verify feature matrices for isolating errors in simulation models

Software simulation models are computer programs that need to be verified and debugged like any other software. In previous work, a method for error isolation in simulation models has been proposed. The method relies on a set of feature matrices that can be used to determine which part of the model implementation is responsible for deviations in the output of the model. Currrently these feature matrices have to be generated by hand from the model implementation, which is a tedious and error-prone task. In this paper, a method based on mutation analysis, as well as prototype tool support for the verification of the manually generated feature matrices is presented. The application of the method and tool to a model for wastewater treatment shows that the feature matrices can be verified effectively using a minimal number of mutants.

Artificial pumping errors in the Kool-Parker scaling model of soil moisture hysteresis

Hysteresis models that eliminate the artificial pumping errors associated with the Kool-Parker (KP) soil moisture hysteresis model, such as the Parker-Lenhard (PL) method, can be computationally demanding in unsaturated transport models since they need to retain the wetting-drying history of the system. The pumping errors in these models need to be eliminated for correct simulation of cyclical systems (e.g. transport above a tidally forced watertable, infiltration and redistribution under periodic irrigation) if the soils exhibit significant hysteresis. A modification is made here to the PL method that allows it to be more readily applied to numerical models by eliminating the need to store a large number of soil moisture reversal points. The modified-PL method largely eliminates any artificial pumping error and so essentially retains the accuracy of the original PL approach. The modified-PL method is implemented in HYDRUS-1D (version 2.0), which is then used to simulate cyclic capillary fringe dynamics to show the influence of removing artificial pumping errors and to demonstrate the ease of implementation. Artificial pumping errors are shown to be significant for the soils and system characteristics used here in numerical experiments of transport above a fluctuating watertable. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors predictive of intravenous fluid administration errors in Australian surgical care wards

Background: Intravenous (IV) fluid administration is an integral component of clinical care. Errors in administration can cause detrimental patient outcomes and increase healthcare costs, although little is known about medication administration errors associated with continuous IV infusions. Objectives: ( 1) To ascertain the prevalence of medication administration errors for continuous IV infusions and identify the variables that caused them. ( 2) To quantify the probability of errors by fitting a logistic regression model to the data. Methods: A prospective study was conducted on three surgical wards at a teaching hospital in Australia. All study participants received continuous infusions of IV fluids. Parenteral nutrition and non-electrolyte containing intermittent drug infusions ( such as antibiotics) were excluded. Medication administration errors and contributing variables were documented using a direct observational approach. Results: Six hundred and eighty seven observations were made, with 124 (18.0%) having at least one medication administration error. The most common error observed was wrong administration rate. The median deviation from the prescribed rate was 247 ml/h (interquartile range 275 to + 33.8 ml/ h). Errors were more likely to occur if an IV infusion control device was not used and as the duration of the infusion increased. Conclusions: Administration errors involving continuous IV infusions occur frequently. They could be reduced by more common use of IV infusion control devices and regular checking of administration rates.

Evaluation of individual protein errors in silver-stained two-dimensional gels

The relationship between spot volume and variation for all protein spots observed on large format 2D gels when utilising silver stain technology and a model system based on mammalian NSO cell extracts is reported. By running multiple gels we have shown that the reproducibility of data generated in this way is dependent on individual protein spot volumes, which in turn are directly correlated with the coefficient of variation. The coefficients of variation across all observed protein spots were highest for low abundant proteins which are the primary contributors to process error, and lowest for more abundant proteins. Using the relationship between spot volume and coefficient of variation we show it is necessary to calculate variation for individual protein spot volumes. The inherent limitations of silver staining therefore mean that errors in individual protein spot volumes must be considered when assessing significant changes in protein spot volume and not global error. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elasticity, yielding and episodicity in simple models of mantle convection

We explore the implications of refinements in the mechanical description of planetary constituents on the convection modes predicted by finite-element simulations. The refinements consist in the inclusion of incremental elasticity, plasticity (yielding) and multiple simultaneous creep mechanisms in addition to the usual visco-plastic models employed in the context of unified plate-mantle models. The main emphasis of this paper rests on the constitutive and computational formulation of the model. We apply a consistent incremental formulation of the non-linear governing equations avoiding the computationally expensive iterations that are otherwise necessary to handle the onset of plastic yield. In connection with episodic convection simulations, we point out the strong dependency of the results on the choice of the initial temperature distribution. Our results also indicate that the inclusion of elasticity in the constitutive relationships lowers the mechanical energy associated with subduction events.

Tradeoffs of different types of species occurrence data for use in systematic conservation planning

Data on the occurrence of species are widely used to inform the design of reserve networks. These data contain commission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be present) and omission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be absent), and the rates of the two types of error are inversely related. Point locality data can minimize commission errors, but those obtained from museum collections are generally sparse, suffer from substantial spatial bias and contain large omission errors. Geographic ranges generate large commission errors because they assume homogenous species distributions. Predicted distribution data make explicit inferences on species occurrence and their commission and omission errors depend on model structure, on the omission of variables that determine species distribution and on data resolution. Omission errors lead to identifying networks of areas for conservation action that are smaller than required and centred on known species occurrences, thus affecting the comprehensiveness, representativeness and efficiency of selected areas. Commission errors lead to selecting areas not relevant to conservation, thus affecting the representativeness and adequacy of reserve networks. Conservation plans should include an estimation of commission and omission errors in underlying species data and explicitly use this information to influence conservation planning outcomes.

Towards developing reliable models of leaf area on grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.)

A field study in three vineyards in southern Queensland (Australia) was carried out to develop predictive models for individual leaf area and shoot leaf area of two cultivars (Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz) of grapevines (Vitis Vinifera L.). Digital image analysis was used to measure leaf vein length and leaf area. Stepwise regressions of untransformed and transformed models consisting of up to six predictor variables for leaf area and three predictor variables for shoot leaf area were carried out to obtain the most efficient models. High correlation coefficients were found for log10 transformed individual leaf and shoot leaf area models. The significance of predictor variables in the models varied across vineyards and cultivars, demonstrating the discontinuous and heterogeneous nature of vineyards. The application of this work in a grapevine modeling environment and in a dynamic vineyard management context are discussed. Sample sizes for quantification of individual leaf areas and areas of leaves on shoots are proposed based on target margins of errors of sampled data.