Estimating correlations from epidemiological data in the presence of measurement error

Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Epidemiological and molecular evidence supports the zoonotic transmission of Glardia among humans and dogs living in the same community

Giardia duodenalis isolates recovered from humans and clogs living in the same locality in a remote tea-growing community of northeast India were characterized at 3 different loci; the SSU-rDNA, elongation factor 1-alpha (ef1-alpha) and triose phosphate isomerase (tpi) gene. Phylogenetic analysis of the SSU-rDNA and ef1-alpha genes provided poor genetic resolution of the isolates within various assemblages, stressing the importance of using multiple loci when inferring genotypes to Giardia. Analysis of the tpi gene provided better genetic resolution and placed canine Giardia isolates within the genetic groupings of human isolates (Assemblages A and B). Further evidence for zoonotic transmission was supported by epidemiological data showing a highly significant association between the prevalence of Giardia in humans and presence of it Giardia-positive dog in the same household (odds ratio 3.01, 95%) CI, 1.11, 8.39, P = 0.0000).

Heroin overdose: causes and consequences

Over the past decade fatal opioid overdose has emerged as a major public health issue internationally. This paper examines the risk factors for overdose from a biomedical perspective. while significant risk factors for opioid overdose fatality are well recognized, the mechanism of fatal overdose remains unclear. Losses of tolerance and concomitant use of alcohol and other CNS depressants clearly play a major role in fatality; howeve, such risk factors do not account for the strong age and gender patterns observed consistently among victims of overdose. There is evidence that systemic disease may be more prevalent in users at greatest risk of overdose. We hypothesize that pulmonary and hepatic dysfunction resulting from such disease may increase susceptibility to both fatal and non-fatal overdose. Sequelae of non-fatal overdose are recognized in the clinical literature but few epidemiological data exist describing the burden of morbidity arising from such sequelae. The potential for overdose to cause persisting morbidity is reviewed.

Assessing cost-effectiveness - Mental health: introduction to the study and methods

Objective: The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness - Mental Health (ACE-MH) study aims to assess from a health sector perspective, whether there are options for change that could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's current mental health services by directing available resources toward 'best practice' cost-effective services. Method: The use of standardized evaluation methods addresses the reservations expressed by many economists about the simplistic use of League Tables based on economic studies confounded by differences in methods, context and setting. The cost-effectiveness ratio for each intervention is calculated using economic and epidemiological data. This includes systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials for efficacy, the Australian Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing for current practice and a combination of trials and longitudinal studies for adherence. The cost-effectiveness ratios are presented as cost (A$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved with a 95% uncertainty interval based on Monte Carlo simulation modelling. An assessment of interventions on 'second filter' criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') allows broader concepts of 'benefit' to be taken into account, as well as factors that might influence policy judgements in addition to cost-effectiveness ratios. Conclusions: The main limitation of the study is in the translation of the effect size from trials into a change in the DALY disability weight, which required the use of newly developed methods. While comparisons within disorders are valid, comparisons across disorders should be made with caution. A series of articles is planned to present the results.

eMelanoBase: An online locus-specific variant database for familial melanoma

A proportion of melanoma,prone individuals in both familial and non,familial contexts has been shown to carry inactivating mutations in either CDKN2A or, rarely, CDK4. CDKN2A is a complex locus that encodes two unrelated proteins from alternately spliced transcripts that are read in different frames. The alpha transcript (exons 1a, 2, and 3) produces the p16INK4A cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, while the beta transcript (exons 1beta and 2) is translated as p14ARF, a stabilizing factor of p53 levels through binding to MDM2. Mutations in exon 2 can impair both polypeptides and insertions and deletions in exons 1alpha, 1beta, and 2, which can theoretically generate p16INK4A,p14ARF fusion proteins. No online database currently takes into account all the consequences of these genotypes, a situation compounded by some problematic previous annotations of CDKN2A related sequences and descriptions of their mutations. As an initiative of the international Melanoma Genetics Consortium, we have therefore established a database of germline variants observed in all loci implicated in familial melanoma susceptibility. Such a comprehensive, publicly accessible database is an essential foundation for research on melanoma susceptibility and its clinical application. Our database serves two types of data as defined by HUGO. The core dataset includes the nucleotide variants on the genomic and transcript levels, amino acid variants, and citation. The ancillary dataset includes keyword description of events at the transcription and translation levels and epidemiological data. The application that handles users' queries was designed in the model,view. controller architecture and was implemented in Java. The object-relational database schema was deduced using functional dependency analysis. We hereby present our first functional prototype of eMelanoBase. The service is accessible via the URL www.wmi.usyd.e, du.au:8080/melanoma.html.

Social and behavioural determinants of early childhood caries

Background: To investigate the association between selected social and behavioural (infant feeding and preventive dental practices) variables and the presence of early childhood caries in preschool children within the north Brisbane region. Methods: A cross sectional sample of 2515 children aged four to five years were examined in a preschool setting using prevalence (percentage with caries) and severity (dmft) indices. A self-administered questionnaire obtained information regarding selected social and behavioural variables. The data were modelled using multiple logistic regression analysis at the 5 per cent level of significance. Results: The final explanatory model for caries presence in four to five year old children included the variables breast feeding from three to six months of age (OR=0.7, CI=0.5, 1.0), sleeping with the bottle (OR=1.9, CI=1.5, 2.4), sipping from the bottle (OR=1.6, CI=1.2, 2.0), ethnicity other than Caucasian (OR=1.9, CI=1.4, 2.5), annual family income $20,000-$35,000 (OR = 1.7, CI=1.3, 2.3) and annual family income less than $20,000 (OR=2.1, CI=1.5, 2.8). Conclusion: A statistical model for early childhood caries in preschool children within the north Brisbane region has been constructed using selected social and behavioural determinants. Epidemiological data can be used for improved public oral health service planning and resource allocation within the region.

Urinary arsenic speciation and porphyrins in C57B1/6J mice chronically exposed to low doses of sodium arsenate

Arsenic has been classified as a human carcinogen based on epidemiological data however the mechanism of its carcinogenicity is still unclear. Urinary biomarkers for chronic arsenic exposure would be valuable as an early warning indicator for timely interventions. In this study, young female C57BI/6J mice were given drinking water containing 0, 100, 250 and 500 mug As-v/L as sodium arsenate ad libitum for 12 months. Urine was collected bimonthly for urinary arsenic methylation assay and porphyrin analysis. All detectable arsenic species showed strong linear correlation with administered dosage and the arsenic methylation patterns were similar in all three treatment groups. No significant changes of methylation patterns were observed over time for either the control or test groups. Urinary coproporphyrin III was significantly increased in the 8th month in 250 and 500 mug/L groups and remained significantly dose-related after 10 and 12 months. Coproporphyrin I also showed a significant dose-response relationship after 12 months. Our results confirm that urinary arsenic is a useful biomarker for internal dose. The alteration of porphyrin profile suggests that arsenic can affect the heme metabolism and this may occur prior to the onset of arsenic induced carcinogenesis. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodological Considerations in the Study of Genetic Discrimination

The potential significance and dimensions of genetic discrimination have been described extensively in published literature, but epidemiological and verified case data are limited. Obtaining unbiased data from individuals about discrimination which has been based on erroneous or unjustifiable assumptions about their genetic predispositions poses unique challenges. Through review and discussion of research literature, we identify methodological considerations for collecting valid epidemiological data on genetic discrimination from individuals in the community; in particular, we consider issues which relate to sampling, selection and response. We identify issues to promote sound study design, with particular attention to verification of genetic discrimination, and highlight the importance of clinical and genetic knowledge of complex genotype-phenotype relationships.

The etiology of social phobia: Empirical evidence and an initial model

Research into the etiology of social phobia has lagged far behind that of descriptive and maintaining factors. The current paper reviews data from a variety of sources that have some bearing on questions of the origins of social fears. Areas examined include genetic factors, temperament, childrearing, negative life events, and adverse social experiences. Epidemiological data are examined in detail and factors associated with social phobia such as cognitive distortions and social skills are also covered. The paper concludes with an initial model that draws together some of the current findings and aims to provide a platform for future research directions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of recreational exposure to freshwater cyanobacteria - an international prospective cohort study

Background: Case studies and anecdotal reports have documented a range of acute illnesses associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and their toxins in recreational waters. The epidemiological data to date are limited; we sought to improve on the design of some previously conducted studies in order to facilitate revision and refinement of guidelines for exposure to cyanobacteria in recreational waters. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the incidence of acute symptoms in individuals exposed, through recreational activities, to low ( cell surface area < 2.4 mm(2)/mL), medium ( 2.4 - 12.0 mm(2)/mL) and high (> 12.0 mm(2)/mL) levels of cyanobacteria in lakes and rivers in southeast Queensland, the central coast area of New South Wales, and northeast and central Florida. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed; models adjusted for region, age, smoking, prior history of asthma, hay fever or skin disease ( eczema or dermatitis) and clustering by household. Results: Of individuals approached, 3,595 met the eligibility criteria, 3,193 (89%) agreed to participate and 1,331 (37%) completed both the questionnaire and follow-up interview. Respiratory symptoms were 2.1 (95% CI: 1.1 - 4.0) times more likely to be reported by subjects exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria than by those exposed to low levels. Similarly, when grouping all reported symptoms, individuals exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria were 1.7 ( 95% CI: 1.0 - 2.8) times more likely to report symptoms than their low-level cyanobacteria-exposed counterparts. Conclusion: A significant increase in reporting of minor self-limiting symptoms, particularly respiratory symptoms, was associated with exposure to higher levels of cyanobacteria of mixed genera. We suggest that exposure to cyanobacteria based on total cell surface area above 12 mm(2)/mL could result in increased incidence of symptoms. The potential for severe, life-threatening cyanobacteria-related illness is likely to be greater in recreational waters that have significant levels of cyanobacterial toxins, so future epidemiological investigations should be directed towards recreational exposure to cyanotoxins.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current burden and future projections

Information about the comparative magnitude of the burden from various diseases and injuries is a critical input into building the evidence base for health policies and programmes. Such information should be based on a critical evaluation of all available epidemiological data using standard and comparable procedures across diseases and injuries, including information on the age at death and the incidence, duration and severity of cases who do not die prematurely from the disease. A summary measure, disability-adjusted life yrs (DALYs), has been developed to simultaneously measure the amount of disease burden due to premature mortality and the amount due to the nonfatal consequences of disease.

Ultra-endurance exercise and oxidative damage: Implications for cardiovascular health

At least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity accumulated on most, preferably all days is considered the minimum level necessary to reduce the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Despite an unclear explanation, some epidemiological data paradoxically suggest that a very high volume of exercise is associated with a decrease in cardiovascular health. Although ultra-endurance exercise training has been shown to increase antioxidant defences (and therefore confer a protective effect against oxidative stress), an increase in oxidative stress may contribute to the development of atherosclerosis via oxidative modification of low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Research has also shown that ultra-endurance exercise is associated with acute cardiac dysfunction and injury, and these may also be related to an increase in free radical production. Longitudinal studies are needed to assess whether antioxidant defences are adequate to prevent LDL oxidation that may occur as a result of increased free radical production during very high volumes of exercise. In addition, this work will assist in understanding the accrued effect of repeated ultra-endurance exercise-induced myocardial damage.

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer - collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58 515 women with breast cancer and 95 067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19 - 1.45, P < 0.00001) for an intake of 35 - 44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33 - 1.61, P < 0.00001) for greater than or equal to 45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P