Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Implications of non-response of older women to a short form of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale

The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) is frequently used in epidemiological surveys to screen for depression, especially among older adults. This article addresses the problem of non-completion of a short form of the CES-D (CESD-10) in a mailed survey of 73- to 78-year-old women enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Completers of the CESD-10 had more education, found it easier to manage on available income and reported better physical and mental health. The Medical Outcomes Study Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) scores for non-completers were intermediate between those for women classified as depressed and not depressed using the CESD-10. Indicators of depression had an inverted U-shaped relationship with the number of missing CESD- 10 items and were most frequent for women with two to seven items missing. Future research should pay particular attention to the level of missing data in depression scales and report its potential impact on estimates of depression.

Surveillance as a technique of power in physical education

This paper analyses surveillance as a technique of power in the culture of physical education, including its impact upon the health of teachers. Additionally, gendered aspects of surveillance are investigated because physical education is an important location in and through which bodies are inscribed with gendered identities. The embodied nature of physical educators' work renders the body as particularly significant in patterns of privilege and domination. The research was guided by Michel Foucault's work and poststructural feminist perspectives on the importance of power in social life. At nine schools across two international research sites, the functioning of surveillance was evidenced through the multi-directional workings of power in top-down, lateral, and bottom-up configurations. Data indicated that surveillance occurred on, through and about bodies. It had a strong gender dimension as the male gaze inscribed both female teachers' and students' bodies with value and competence. In terms of teachers' health, as well as responses to surveillance on a physical and emotional level, the workings of power were also influential in shaping teachers' identities.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Consistency of epidemiologic estimates

Background: The epidemiology of a disease describes numbers of people becoming incident, being prevalent, recovering, surviving, and dying from the disease or from other causes. As a matter of accounting principle, the inflow, stock, and outflows must be compatible, and if we could observe completely every person involved, the epidemiologic estimates describing the disease would be consistent. Lack of consistency is an indicator for possible measurement error. Methods: We examined the consistency of estimates of incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of dementia from the Rotterdam Study. We used the incidence and excess mortality estimates to calculate with a mathematical disease model a predicted prevalence, and compared the predicted to the observed prevalence. Results: Predicted prevalence is in most age groups lower than observed, and the difference between them is significant for some age groups. Conclusions: The observed discrepancy could be due to overestimates of prevalence or excess mortality, or an underestimate of incidence, or a combination of all three. We conclude from an analysis of possible causes that it is not possible to say which contributes most to the discrepancy. Estimating dementia incidence in an aging cohort presents a dilemma: with a short follow-up border-line incident cases are easily missed, and with longer follow-up measurement problems increase due to the associated aging of the cohort. Checking for consistency is a useful strategy to signal possible measurement error, but some sources of error may be impossible to avoid.

Dietary patterns and metabolic syndrome - a review of epidemiologic evidence

Metabolic syndrome is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and appears to be widely prevalent in both developed and developing countries. While lifestyle modification is recommended for management of the syndrome, the dietary pattern most beneficial for patients is yet to be ascertained. Original research papers from the Medline database were examined for dietary patterns that may be associated with the syndrome. Three large-scale epidemiological studies were found fitting our criteria. Dietary patterns high in fruit and vegetable content were generally found to be associated with lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Diet patterns with high meat intake were frequently associated with components of metabolic syndrome, particularly impaired glucose tolerance. High dairy intake was generally associated with reduced risk for components of metabolic syndrome with some inconsistency in the literature regarding risk of obesity. Minimally processed cereals appeared to be associated with decreased risk of metabolic syndrome, while highly processed cereals with high glycaemic index are associated with higher risk. Fried foods were noticeably absent from any dietary pattern associated with decreased prevalence of metabolic syndrome. The conclusion of this review is that no individual dietary component could be considered wholly responsible for the association of diet with metabolic syndrome. Rather it is the overall quality of the diet that appears to offer protection against lifestyle disease such as metabolic syndrome. Further research is required into conditions, such as overweight and obesity, which may influence the effect of diet on the development of metabolic syndrome.

Enhancing Life in the Hyper-surveillance Mini-world of a Space Station: The Role of Situation Awareness, Communication, and Reality TV in the Life of Astronauts

This is the third article of a series entitled Astronauts as Audiences. In this article, we investigate the roles that situation awareness (SA), communications, and reality TV (including media communications) might have on the lives of astronauts in remote space communities. We examined primary data about astronauts’ living and working environments, applicable theories of SA, communications, and reality TV (including media communications). We then surmised that the collective application of these roles might be a means of enhancing the lives of astronauts in remote space communities.