Objectives for multiple-species conservation planning

The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities bad to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.

A genetic estimation algorithm for parameters of stochastic ordinary differential equations

A generic method for the estimation of parameters for Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations (SODEs) is introduced and developed. This algorithm, called the GePERs method, utilises a genetic optimisation algorithm to minimise a stochastic objective function based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Numerical simulations are utilised to form the KS statistic. Further, the examination of some of the factors that improve the precision of the estimates is conducted. This method is used to estimate parameters of diffusion equations and jump-diffusion equations. It is also applied to the problem of model selection for the Queensland electricity market. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Renal and hepatic accumulation of cadmium and lead in the expression of CYP4F2 and CYP2E1

The present study examined accumulation of the metal toxins cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in relation to the abundance of cytochrome P450 4F2 (CYP4F2), CYP2E1 and concentrations of zinc and copper in liver and kidney samples using immunoblotting coupled with metal analysis. The post mortem liver and kidney cortex samples were from 23 males and 8 females aged 3-89 years. All were Caucasians who had not been exposed to metals in the workplace. Average kidney cortex Cd load of 17.4 mu g/g w.w. was 17 times greater than average liver Cd load (1.1 mu g/g w.w.). In contrast, average kidney cortex Ph load of 0.09 mu g/g w.w. was two times lower than liver Pb load of 0.19 mu g/g w.w. Average Zn and Cu concentrations in the kidney cortex samples were 67% and 33% lower than those in the liver. Liver and kidney Cd loads, but not liver or kidney Ph loads, correlated positively with donors' age. After controlling for liver Cd load, an inverse correlation was seen between Zn and age (partial r = -0.39, P = 0.02), suggesting reduction in liver Zn levels in old age. Liver CYP2E1 protein abundance correlated with age-adjusted Cd load (partial r = 0.37, P = 0.02) whereas kidney CYP4172 protein abundance showed a positive correlation with age-adjusted Cd loads (partial r = 0.40, P = 0.02). These findings suggest that Cd may be an inducer of renal CYP4172 and hepatic CYP2E1 and that increased renal CYP4172 expression may implicate in Cd-linked renal tubular dysfunction and high blood pressure, involving CYP4F2-dependent arachidonic acid metabolism. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization

In recent years, the cross-entropy method has been successfully applied to a wide range of discrete optimization tasks. In this paper we consider the cross-entropy method in the context of continuous optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the cross-entropy method for solving difficult continuous multi-extremal optimization problems, including those with non-linear constraints.

Detecting environmental impacts on metapopulations of mound spring invertebrates - Assessing an incidence function model

We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence for Concurrent Effects of Exposure to Environmental Cadmium and Lead on Hepatic CYP2A6 Phenotype and Renal Function Biomarkers in Non Smokers

We examined the interrelationships between phenotype of hepatic cytochrome P450 2A6 (CYP2A6), nephropathy, and exposure to cadmium and lead in a group of 118 healthy Thai men and women who had never smoked. Their urinary Cd excretion ranged from 0.05 to 2.36 mug/g creatinine, whereas their urinary Pb excretion ranged from 0.1 to 12 mug/g creatinine. Average age and Cd burden of women and men did not differ. Women, however, on average showed a 46% higher urinary Pb excretion (p < 0.001) and lower zinc status, suggested by lower average serum Zn and urinary Zn excretion compared with those in men. Cd-linked nephropathy was detected in both men and women. However, Pb-linked nephropathy was seen only in women, possibly because of higher Pb burden coupled with lower protective factors, notably of Zn (P < 0.001), in women compared with men. In men, Pb burden showed a negative association with CYP2A6 activity (adjusted beta = -0.29, p = 0.003), whereas Cd burden showed a positive association with CYP2A6 activity (adjusted beta = 0.38, p = 0.001), suggesting opposing effects of Cd and Pb on hepatic CYP2A6 phenotype. The weaker correlation between Cd burden CYP2A6 activity in women despite similarity in Cd burden between men and women is consistent with opposing effects of Pb and Cd on hepatic CYP2A6 phenotypic expression. A positive correlation between Cd-linked nephropathy (urinary N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase excretion) and CYP2A6 activity in men (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) and women (r = 0.37, p = 0.001) suggests that Cd induction of hepatic CYP2A6 expression and Cd-linked nephropathy occurred simultaneously.

Kidney and cloaca function in the estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) at different salinities: Evidence for solute-linked water uptake

Kidney function and the role of the cloacal complex in osmoregulation was investigated in estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) exposed to three environmental salinities: hypo-, iso- and hyperosmotic to the plasma. Plasma homeostasis was maintained over the range of salinities. Antidiuresis occurred with increased salinity. Although urine from the kidneys retained an osmotic pressure between 77% and 82% of the plasma, over 93% and 98% of plasma chloride filtered at the glomeruli was reabsorbed during passage through the kidneys under hypo and hyperosmotic conditions, respectively, and only 64% in iso-osmotic water. The kidneys were the primary site of sodium reabsorption under hypo-and hyperosmotic conditions. Secondary processing of urine during storage in the cloaca varied with salinity. During post renal storage of urine, the difference in urine osmotic pressure increased from -26.1 +/- 15.5 to 35.66 +/- 9.29 mOsM with increased salinity, and potassium concentration of urine increased over 3-fold in C. porosus from freshwater. The almost complete reabsorption of both sodium and chloride under hyperosmotic conditions indicates the necessity for secretory activity by the lingual salt glands. The osmoregulatory response of the kidneys and cloacal complex to environmental salinity is both plastic and complementary. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

Hypothalamic dopamine D1 receptors are involved in the stimulation of prolactin secretion by high environmental temperature in the female sheep

Recent evidence suggests that dopamine, acting via its D1 receptors, may function as a neurotransmitter in intrahypothalamic pathways involved in the stimulation of prolactin secretion. Functional dopamine D1 receptors are present in the ventromedial hypothalamic nucleus (VMH) and we hypothesized that they might be part of a prolactin-stimulatory pathway activated by stress. We tested this hypothesis in a series of experiments on sheep involving two different forms of stressors, audiovisual (barking dog) and high environmental temperature. We attempted to block the stimulation of prolactin secretion by infusion into the VMH of an antagonist specific for the D1 receptor. Ovariectomised, oestradiol-implanted merino ewes were surgically implanted with bilateral guide tubes directed at the VMH. After a 180 min pretreatment period, the ewes either were or were not exposed to a stressor (30 min of barking dog or 120 min at 35 degrees C, 65% relative humidity). D1 receptor antagonist, SCH23390 or vehicle (0.9% saline) was infused into the VMH (1.7 mu l/h, 120 nmol/h) for 60 min prior to and during the stressor period. Blood was sampled every 15 min via jugular cannulae and the plasma was assayed for prolactin, cortisol and growth hormone (GH). Both stressors significantly increased prolactin concentrations over control levels. SCH23390 infusion significantly attenuated the prolactin response to high environmental temperature, but had no effect on the prolactin response to audiovisual stress. Cortisol concentrations were significantly increased by audiovisual stress only and were not affected by SCH23390, GH concentrations were not changed by either stressor or infusion. Drug infusion alone did not affect the concentration of the hormones. The data suggest that the VMH D1 receptors are involved in a prolactin stimulatory pathway in response to high environmental temperature. The inability of the D1 antagonist to affect the response to the barking dog indicates that this pathway is stress-specific, implying that there is more than one mechanism or pathway involved in the prolactin response to different stressors.

A framework for selecting appropriate remotely sensed data dimensions for environmental monitoring and management

Two major factors are likely to impact the utilisation of remotely sensed data in the near future: (1)an increase in the number and availability of commercial and non-commercial image data sets with a range of spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions, and (2) increased access to image display and analysis software through GIS. A framework was developed to provide an objective approach to selecting remotely sensed data sets for specific environmental monitoring problems. Preliminary applications of the framework have provided successful approaches for monitoring disturbed and restored wetlands in southern California.

Shared and unique environmental factors determine the ecology of methanogens in humans and rats

OBJECTIVE: This study ascertains the relative contributions of genetics and environment in determining methane emission in humans and rats. There is considerable interest in the factors determining the microbial species that inhabit the colon. Methanogens, which are archaebacteria, are an easily detected colonic luminal bacteria because they respire methane. They are present in some but not all human colons and lower animal hindguts. Opinion varies on the nature of the factors influencing this ecology with some studies proposing the existence of host genetic influences. METHODS: Methane emission was measured in human twin pairs by gas chromatography, and structural equation modeling was used to determine the proportion of genetic and environmental determinants. The importance of the timing of environmental effects and rat strain on the trait of methane emission were ascertained by experiments with cohabiting methanogenic and nonmethanogenic rats. RESULTS: Analysis of breath samples from 274 adolescent twin pairs and their families indicated that the major influences on the trait of methane emission are the result of shared (53%, 95% confidence interval 39-61) and unique environmental (47%, 95% confidence interval 38-56) effects. No significant autosomal genetic effects were detected, but as observed in other studies, men (37%) were less likely to excrete methane in their breath than women (63%). Investigation of methane emission in rats indicated that environmental effects in this animal are most potent during the weaning period, with stable gut microbial ecology thereafter for some but not all rat strains. CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with shared and unique environmental factors being the main determinants of the ecology of this colonic microbe. (Am J Gastroenterol 2000;95:2872-2879. (C) 2000 by Am. Coll. of Gastroenterology).

The Las Campanas/AAT Rich Cluster Survey - II. The environmental dependence of galaxy colours in clusters at z similar to 0.1

We present a photometric investigation of the variation in galaxy colour with environment in 11 X-ray-luminous clusters at 0.07 less than or equal to z less than or equal to 0.16 taken from the Las Campanas/AAT Rich Cluster Survey. We study the properties of the galaxy populations in individual clusters, and take advantage of the homogeneity of the sample to combine the clusters together to investigate weaker trends in the composite sample. We find that modal colours of galaxies lying on the colour-magnitude relation in the clusters become bluer by d(B - R)/dr(p) = -0.022 +/- 0.004 from the cluster core out to a projected radius of r(p) = 6 Mpc, further out in radius than any previous study. We also examine the variation in modal galaxy colour with local galaxy density, 2, for galaxies lying close to the colour-magnitude relation, and find that the median colour shifts bluewards by d(B - R)/d log(10)(Sigma) = -0.076 +/- 0.009 with decreasing local density across three orders of magnitude. We show that the position of the red envelope of galaxies in the colour-magnitude relation does not vary as a function of projected radius or density within the clusters, suggesting that the change in the modal colour results from an increasing fraction of bluer galaxies within the colour-magnitude relation, rather than a change in the colours of the whole population. We show that this shift in the colour-magnitude relations with projected radius and local density is greater than that expected from the changing morphological mix based on the local morphology-density relation. We therefore conclude that we are seeing a real change in the properties of galaxies on the colour-magnitude relation in the outskirts of clusters. The simplest interpretation of this result (and similar constraints in local clusters) is that an increasing fraction of galaxies in the lower density regions at large radii within clusters exhibit signatures of star formation in the recent past, signatures which are not seen in the evolved galaxies in the highest density regions.

IL-1 breaks tolerance through inhibition of regulatory T cell function

Diverse infectious and inflammatory environmental triggers, through unknown mechanisms, initiate autoimmune disease in genetically predisposed individuals. Here we show that IL-1b, a key cytokine mediator of the inflammatory response, suppresses CD25+CD4+ regulatory T cell function. Surprisingly, suppression by IL-1b occurs only where antigen is presented simultaneously to CD25+CD4+ T cells and to CD25CD4+ antigen-specific effector T cells. Further, NOD mice show an intrinsic over-production of IL-1 that contributes to reduced CD25+CD4+ regulatory T cell function. Thus, inflammation or constitutive over-expression of IL-1b in a genetically predisposed host can initiate a positive feedback loop licensing autoantigen-specific effector cells to inhibit the regulatory T cells maintaining tolerance to self.