Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Electronic energy-transfer rate constants for geometrical isomers of a bichromophoric macrocyclic complex

The rate of electronic energy transfer (EET) between a naphthalene donor and an anthracene acceptor in [ZnL3]-(ClO4)(2) and [ZnL4](ClO4)(2) was determined by time-resolved fluorescence measurements, where L 3 and L 4 are the geometrical isomers of 6-[(anthracen-9-ylmethyl)amino]-trans-6,13-dimethyl-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane-13-amine (L-2), substituted with either a naphthalen-1-ylmethyl or naphthalen-2-ylmethyl donor, respectively. The energy transfer rate constant, k(EET), was determined to be (0.92 +/- 0.02) x 10(9) s(-1) for the naphthalen-1-ylmethyl-substituted isomer, while that for the naphthalen-2-ylmethyl-substituted isomer is somewhat faster, with k(EET) = (1.31 +/- 0.01) x 10(9) s(-1). The solid-state structure of [(ZnLCl)-Cl-3]ClO4 has been determined, and using molecular modeling calculations, the likely distributions of solution conformations in CH3CN have been evaluated for both complexes. The calculated conformational distributions in the common trans-III N-based isomeric form gave Forster EET rate constants that account for the differences observed and are in excellent agreement with the experimental values. It is shown that the full range of conformers must be considered to accurately reproduce the observed EET kinetics.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Rates of electronic energy transfer in conformationally flexible bichromophoric macrocyclic complexes: a combined experimental and molecular modeling study

Electronic energy transfer (EET) rate constants between a naphthalene donor and anthracene acceptor in [ZnL4a](ClO4)(2) and [ZnL4b](ClO4)(2) were determined by time-resolved fluorescence where L-4a and L-4b are the trans and cis isomers of 6-((anthracen-9-yl-methyl)amino)-6,13-dimethyl-13-((naphthalen-1-yl-methyl)amino)-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane, respectively. These isomers differ in the relative disposition of the appended chromophores with respect to the macrocyclic plane. The trans isomer has an energy transfer rate constant (k(EET)) of 8.7 x 10(8) s(-1), whereas that of the cis isomer is significantly faster (2.3 x 10(9) s(-1)). Molecular modeling was used to determine the likely distribution of conformations in CH3CN solution for these complexes in an attempt to identify any distance or orientation dependency that may account for the differing rate constants observed. The calculated conformational distributions together with analysis by H-1 NMR for the [ZnL4a](2+) trans complex in the common trans-III N-based isomer gave a calculated Forster rate constant close to that observed experimentally. For the [ZnL4b](2+) cis complex, the experimentally determined rate constant may be attributed to a combination of trans-Ill and trans-I N-based isomeric forms of the complex in solution.

Vitamin B-12 release from P(HEMA-co-THFMA) in water and SBF: A model drug release study

A model drug release study on the ingress of water and Kokubo simulated body fluid (SBF) into poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) (THFMA) and its copolymers with tetrahydrofurfuryl methacrylate (THFMA) loaded with vitamin B-12 was undertaken over the temperature range 298-318 K. The polymers were studied as cylinders and were loaded with either 5 or 10 wt-% of the drug. The drug release from the polymers was found to follow a Fickian diffusion mechanism in the early stages of the drug release, with higher normalized release rates at higher temperatures and higher drug loadings. The normalized release rates were also found to be higher for the SBF solution than for water. The copolymer composition was found to have a significant effect on the rate of release of the drug, with the rate falling rapidly between HEMA mole fractions of 1.0 and 0.8, but for lower mole fractions of HEMA the normalized release rate decreased more slowly. This behaviour followed the trend found for the changes in the equilibrium penetrant contents for the copolymers.

To fix or not to fix: The role of 2-phenoxyethanol in rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus, chin gland secretion

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) uses the secretion of the chin gland to maintain dominance hierarchies in the wild. Recent work has investigated changes in the secretion when social status is manipulated in the rabbit. When a rabbit becomes dominant, a new compound appears in his secretion, 2-phenoxyethanol. This compound is used as a fixative in the perfume industry. This study investigates whether the compound performs a similar function in the secretion of the rabbit. 2-Phenoxyethanol is not detected olfactorially by rabbits, and slows the release rate of some of the compounds that occur naturally in rabbit chin gland secretion. We suggest that when a rabbit becomes dominant, he adds a fixative to his secretion so that his scent will persist in the environment and not dissipate. He will thus come to dominate the olfactory environment, in much the same way as he does the physical environment.

Augmentation of the assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) (Hemiptera : Reduviidae) as a biological control agent for Helicoverpa spp. in cotton

Third-instar nymphs of the Australian assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker), were released into cotton plots at two release densities and two crop growth stages to test their biological control potential. Release rates of 2 and 5 nymphs per metre row resulted in field populations of 0.51 and 1.38 nymphs per metre row, respectively, indicating that over 70% of nymphs died or emigrated within two weeks of release. Effective release rates of 1.38 nymphs per metre row reduced the number of Helicoverpa spp. larvae in the plots for a 7-week period. Crop yields were significantly greater in the plots to which P. plagipennis nymphs were released, with the effective release rate of 1.38 nymphs per metre row providing equivalent yields as insecticide treated plots. The data suggest that P. plagipennis has the capacity to reduce Helicoverpa spp. larvae densities in cotton crops when augmented through inundative release.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Investigation of in vitro transdermal absorption of fentanyl from patches placed on skin samples obtained from various anatomic regions of dogs

Objective-To investigate in vitro transdermal absorption of fentanyl from patches through skin samples obtained from various anatomic regions of dogs. Sample Population-Skin samples from 5 Greyhounds. Procedure-Skin samples from the dogs' thoracic, neck, and groin regions were collected postmortem and frozen. After samples were thawed, circular sections were cut and placed in Franz-type diffusion cells in a water bath (32degreesC). A commercial fentanyl patch, attached to an acetate strip with a circular hole, was applied to each skin sample. Cellulose strips were used as control membranes. Samples of receptor fluid in the diffusion cells were collected at intervals for 48 hours, and fentanyl concentrations were analyzed by use of high-performance liquid chromatography. Results-Mean +/- SD release rate of fentanyl from the patch, defined by its absorption rate through the non-rate-limiting cellulose membrane, was linear during the first 8 hours (2.01 +/- 0.05 pg/cm(2) of cellulose membrane/h) and then decreased. Fentanyl passed through skin from the groin region at a faster rate and with a significantly shorter lag time, compared with findings in neck or thoracic skin samples. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-In vitro, fentanyl from a patch was absorbed more quickly and to a greater extent through skin collected from the groin region of dogs, compared with skin samples from the thoracic and neck regions. Placement of fentanyl patches in the groin region of dogs may decrease the lag time to achieve analgesia perioperatively; however, in vivo studies are necessary to confirm these findings.

Enhanced biological phosphorus removal in a sequencing batch reactor using propionate as the sole carbon source

An enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) system was developed in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) using propionate as the sole carbon source. The microbial community was followed using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) techniques and Candidatus 'Accumulibacter phosphatis' were quantified from the start up of the reactor until steady state. A series of SBR cycle studies was performed when 55% of the SBR biomass was Accumulibacter, a confirmed polyphosphate accumulating organism (PAO) and when Candidatus 'Competibacter phosphatis,' a confirmed glycogen-accumulating organism (GAO), was essentially undetectable. These experiments evaluated two different carbon sources (propionate and acetate), and in every case, two different P-release rates were detected. The highest rate took place while there was volatile fatty acid (VFA) in the mixed liquor, and after the VFA was depleted a second P-release rate was observed. This second rate was very similar to the one detected in experiments performed without added VFA. A kinetic and stoichiometric model developed as a modification of Activated Sludge Model 2 (ASM2) including glycogen economy, was fitted to the experimental profiles. The validation and calibration of this model was carried out with the cycle study experiments performed using both VFAs. The effect of pH from 6.5 to 8.0 on anaerobic P-release and VFA-uptake and aerobic P-uptake was also studied using propionate. The optimal overall working pH was around 7.5. This is the first study of the microbial community involved in EBPR developed with propionate as a sole carbon source along with detailed process performance investigations of the propionate-utilizing PAOs. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Parallel 3D Simulation of a Fault Gouge using the Lattice Solid Model

Despite the insight gained from 2-D particle models, and given that the dynamics of crustal faults occur in 3-D space, the question remains, how do the 3-D fault gouge dynamics differ from those in 2-D? Traditionally, 2-D modeling has been preferred over 3-D simulations because of the computational cost of solving 3-D problems. However, modern high performance computing architectures, combined with a parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model (LSM), provide the opportunity to explore 3-D fault micro-mechanics and to advance understanding of effective constitutive relations of fault gouge layers. In this paper, macroscopic friction values from 2-D and 3-D LSM simulations, performed on an SGI Altix 3700 super-cluster, are compared. Two rectangular elastic blocks of bonded particles, with a rough fault plane and separated by a region of randomly sized non-bonded gouge particles, are sheared in opposite directions by normally-loaded driving plates. The results demonstrate that the gouge particles in the 3-D models undergo significant out-of-plane motion during shear. The 3-D models also exhibit a higher mean macroscopic friction than the 2-D models for varying values of interparticle friction. 2-D LSM gouge models have previously been shown to exhibit accelerating energy release in simulated earthquake cycles, supporting the Critical Point hypothesis. The 3-D models are shown to also display accelerating energy release, and good fits of power law time-to-failure functions to the cumulative energy release are obtained.

Factors affecting the rate of phosphocreatine resynthesis following intense exercise

Within the skeletal muscle cell at the onset of muscular contraction, phosphocreatine (PCr) represents the most immediate reserve for the rephosphorylation of adenosine triphosphate (ATP). As a result, its concentration can be reduced to less than 30% of resting levels during intense exercise. As a fall in the level of PCr appears to adversely affect muscle contraction, and therefore power output in a subsequent bout, maximising the rate of PCr resynthesis during a brief recovery period will be of benefit to an athlete involved in activities which demand intermittent exercise. Although this resynthesis process simply involves the rephosphorylation of creatine by aerobically produced ATP (with the release of protons), it has both a fast and slow component, each proceeding at a rate that is controlled by different components of the creatine kinase equilibrium. The initial fast phase appears to proceed at a rate independent of muscle pH. Instead, its rate appears to be controlled by adenosine diphosphate (ADP) levels; either directly through its free cytosolic concentration, or indirectly, through its effect on the free energy of ATP hydrolysis. Once this fast phase of recovery is complete, there is a secondary slower phase that appears almost certainly rate-dependant on the return of the muscle cell to homeostatic intracellular pH. Given the importance of oxidative phosphorylation in this resynthesis process, those individuals with an elevated aerobic power should be able to resynthesise PCr at a more rapid rate than their sedentary counterparts. However, results from studies that have used phosphorus nuclear magnetic resonance (P-31-NMR) spectroscopy, have been somewhat inconsistent with respect to the relationship between aerobic power and PCr recovery following intense exercise. Because of the methodological constraints that appear to have limited a number of these studies, further research in this area is warranted.